That's of course assuming that a solution does, in fact, exist. Judging by the way the anti-Houthi mission in the Red Sea is going, we haven't found this solution yet.



Imho, it's not so much about experience at operating drones and more about coming up with a technological solution. Maybe the answer is WW1-style flak cannons which are firing automatically with an AI-driven targetting system.

The key advantage of drones, aside from being cheap to produce, is their maneuverability and autonomy. Their key drawback is that they're much slower than missiles while approaching the target. At least when it comes to defending warships or military HQs, sniping them off with kinetic bullets from oldschool flak cannons should work really well once you can automate the targetting.

Well whether or not weapons tech can figure out 'solutions', it can figure out that doubling down on building more vulnerable, anachronistic classical weapons systems isn't a good idea.

True, but then again... gigantic swimming airfields which cost many billion dollars a piece and need to be accompanied by a huge fleet of support vessels at all times are the backbone of the United States' ability to project power around the globe. As is the ability to establish aerial supremacy in any theater of war. If carrier fleets can no longer get even close to enemy shores and $100m high-tech jets get countered by bee-swarms of flying lawn mowers which cost $10k a piece, then how is the US military supposed to maintain its dominance?

There HAS to be a solution other than "future wars will be drone swarm vs drone swarm".

Drones are prone to electronic jamming, and the more they are used, the more both sides get better at jamming, that's why the Russians rolled out the fly by wire FPV's. Of course new generations will be created to circumvent EWs and countermeasures and the cycle repeats.

I don't really think it will be the unstoppable weapon many of us think it is, but who knows. I don't really view this conflict as a 'net' positive for the west, neither here or there. It's another wasted war, with wasted resources and even less tolerance by the populace to accept future wars. At some point the debt and everyday domestic issues will capsize our geopolitics and external power projection. China wins by having us swinging at phantoms for 50 years while they continue to get stronger on the sideline as we tire out. Taiwan will quietly be folded under China, in a peaceful way, because by then i suspect we will be beyond exhausted and we'll have bigger issues to worry about, like having to retire at 70 or other domestic issues because of the debt.

This isn't even too far out, this is what happens i think in the next 10-30 years.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Nov 4 2024 06:10pm

Jamming is only a viable attack vector when the equipment is remotely controlled. We've entered the era of fully autonomous AI controlled equipment over a decade back, so the more drone tech is advanced the less effective jamming is. Also seen high power lasers, but those are pathetic in practice. Short range, easily mitigated with shielding. Very expensive.

Likely have fully autonomous submarine drone carriers that no one talks about. Easy to scuttle and keep secret.

Also during EE days, an engineer gave proposal on drone that could sit and recharge. Ideas was it could check a whole power line over multiple days without helicopter crew. Sit on top of tower and recharge with solar.

Anyways, I think Drone tech is already way more advanced than public can know about. As for the remote controlled ones, Chinese company just broke a record for controlling the most drones with a single controller

This post was edited by RedFromWinter on Nov 4 2024 06:46pm

This cycle of EW measures and countermeasures might be viable for a static, ground-based battle over a sieged city, like what we're seeing a lot in Ukraine. It is not acceptable when a $10 billion carrier is at stake.




Oh, it wasn't my intention to argue that this war has been a net positive for the West. I just wanted to point out that being tipped off about the "drone revolution" is one underrated positive we can take out of this war.

The Ukraine war has of course been a net negative for the West and also for Russia, and a GIGAAAAAAAAAANTIC net negative for Ukraine itself. The big beneficiary is China, with India being the secondary beneficiary.




I don't really see war fatigue ever getting to the point where Russia could invade the Baltics or Romania and the Western public would be too apathetic to fight back or anything like that, but chances are that NATO has reached its maximum extension.

Taiwan will be dropped like a hot potato once we no longer depend on their microchip foundries. And yes, the Chinese are very efficient about getting things done quietly. Getting rid of their Muslim problem with a slow-rolling genocide via forced mass sterilizations of Uyghur women. Exploiting the distraction and chaos of the initial covid lockdowns to crush the protest movement in Hong Kong once and for all and thus end any semblance of HK autonomy. Hooking Western carmakers onto the Chinese market, then introducing escalating fleet emission thresholds which force them to transition to EVs and thus devalue their technological know-how surrounding combustion engines.

It's like they're playing 4d chess while we are playing checkers.
Sorry, I'm off topic and rambling.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 4 2024 07:07pm

I do think that the war will eventually pay off for Russia, who will at the very least annex a big chunk of Ukraine's most resource-rich territory and vital black sea coastal regions. The breakeven point is probably a good while from now considering their staggering losses. Ukraine however will never recover.

And as RedFromWinter stated: AI mapping is gona be better than fly by wire drones.

The AI controlled drones would still rely on some global GPS for their eyes and to not fall out of the sky. I don't have a technical background but what happens if you interfere with their GPS via some spoofing or going after the actual GPS source by either blocking or taking down a satellite?

There are advances to drone navigation to use AI to supplement GPS when jamming is present, trying to recognize terrain, even stars, whatever. I don't think jamming is a long term solution to drones, unless we're talking about using directed energy weapons to fry them