I mean besides the slow burning civil war, Putin has shown he will take tit for tat retaliation after years of waiting for the right moment. That's precisely what happened with Hillary's campaign- it was a direct line between Hillary interfering in Putin's election, and Putin interfering in Hillary's election- but these events happened many years apart. NATO usurped not only the friendly west of Ukraine but also effectively occupied a lot of the DPR / LPR that has been contested since the hot war began, and even if Putin had control over a lot of the east of Ukraine in the frozen conflict and Obama / Trump / Biden were all hesitant to escalate weapons in Ukraine before the invasion- it was still a huge blow to Russia's sphere of influence, long term access to resources and an unanswered slap to their face.

Maybe Russia would have fought a hot war in Ukraine in 2014 if the geopolitical winds favored it. Maybe Putin needed to get his own house in order, wanted to try his hand at continuing to coerce the baltic states as oil transit countries. And US attempts to undermine this with LNG terminals at first and then just blowing up pipelines later demonstrate that Russia couldn't grip the EU with economic power, so it resorted to military power. I imagine we could point to a whole complicated series of factors for why the invasion waited as long as it did, but there are also plenty of easy reasons to explain why he invaded eventually

Russians took Trudove in the south, which puts a whole chain of towns in jeopardy. Ukraine either has to defend that crucial crossroads or retreat from those towns and yield another sizeable sector.

https://x.com/kalibrated_maps/status/1852358022657429572?s=46

Ukraine would have to get rid of its Nazis first before it would have any chance of thriving

Russia invaded because Minsk II was not being carried out, and without Minsk II Russia would have limited leverage over Ukraine. What Russia wants is control over Ukraine, directly or indirectly, and they're not willing to see Ukraine become part of either the EU or NATO.

Ukrainian soldiers eliminate 15 Russian battalions since Kursk operation

In addition, Ukrainian paratroopers destroyed and damaged:
・58 tanks,
・208 armored personnel vehicles;
・136 artillery systems,
・2 multiple-launch rocket systems,
・592 vehicles,
・46 electronic warfare stations and other special equipment.
Three helicopters were destroyed in the air - two combat Ka-52s and a Mi-8, as well as 111 drones of various types, 34 attack drones (Shahed, Lancet) and one reconnaissance and strike UAV Orion.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-soldiers-eliminate-15-russian-battalions-since-kursk-operation/ar-AA1tkXZq

I guess this was the strategic objective of the kursk incursion. Time will tell if it was worth it.

After Zelensky’s Zakarpattia presser, in which he blamed the US for leaking Tomahawk story, infowar content factories are playing a new tune. Western betrayal is the packaging that can help to sell the idea of a humiliating compromise to a society that will be asking questions about the possibility of a much less catastrophic finale earlier in the conflict, as outlined in Minsk and Istanbul

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1852611350943429104
https://x.com/TWMCLtd/status/1852629495926112730

seems like a massive attack on kiev with drones has been underway this morning and UA air defenses aren't stopping them
shaheds are just casually loitering in the skies right above the city at low altitude, looks like a purposeful attempt to bait out their limited supply of AA, just flying in swarms of cheap drones and taking their sweet time picking targets, a few downed by pretty obvious not rushing to their targets
plenty of other footage shows bombed out buildings so they're definitely taking shots

Ukraine Prepares to Deploy Hrim-2 Ballistic Missile, Expanding Strike Capability Against russian Targets

With the Hrim-2, Ukraine gains the ability to strike critical targets in russia without requiring Western permission, expanding the range of strategic strikes available to the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Potential targets include russian airfields, military-industrial sites, and infrastructure facilities.
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraine_prepares_to_deploy_hrim_2_ballistic_missile_expanding_strike_capability_against_russian_targets_media-12397.html

So the hrim-2 currently has a range of 200-300 km, so it falls within the Missile Technology Control Regimes guidelines, but the precursor to this missle, the sapsan, had a range of over 500 km.

The article goes on to say that this won't change anything, but I disagree; it's a question of stockspiles now.

The "stalemate" narrative has collapsed, much like the “Ukraine is winning narrative”, the “sanctions” narrative, the “Nord Stream narrative” etc.

Mainstream media is now permitted to recognise that Ukraine is losing the war without being smeared by the media for repeating "Kremlin talking points"

As much as I would love to think otherwise, it seems that the US election will have no impact on this ridiculous war. I think the Trump would love to believe he could make a deal, but it's looking like both Russia and Ukraine continue to be delusional about what they believe they deserve from a mediation. Ukraine wants pre-war borders, impossible and ridiculous. Russia apparently is refusing negotiations and has eyes on the entire black sea coast and D river border - impractical.

One thing that is not discussed enough, or at all. Taking a q from the pithy phrase generals fight the last war, Russia is gaining something incredibly valuable out of all this. Battle experience in a modern war. They are now the most battle-hardened and experienced rival to the American hegemony, even if their economy cannot support a large and robust war machine. That experience is going to be taught to everyone within the Russian sphere, notably at least Iran and Nork, but maybe also China and India, which would mark a period of time when the US military is actually behind the curve in regards to the techniques of war. That perhaps is one of the most important reasons to try to end the war. The longer this goes, the bigger the chasm between Russia's battle experience and America's. They're like the borg. No amount of losses deters them and they just keep slowly but surely adapting.

This post was edited by Thebarba on Nov 3 2024 11:14am