Hard to say due to fog of war and western media cope, but it seems that Russia has taken all it can. With the exception of the village of zhzhhzhinskyisnkyovka with a population of 2 that Russia seems to take every week, the front line has been by and large stable. That and Russia's internal woes and attrition from the war tells my instinct that if Putin had a favorable way out, he'd take it. Annexing 3 oblasts is a massive win. It would allow Russia a much needed reprieve in the face of multiple challenges elsewhere in the world. (Caucusus, Africa, Levant)

well in the past 72 hours alone they took Selydove (21,521), Izmailivka (199), Tsukuryne (1745) and Bohoyavlenka (1490). They are now knocking on the door of Pokrovsk (60,127) and Myrnohrad (46,098) which are the next major targets along the donetsk front. The front line went from stable and slow moving to pretty rapid advances all of a sudden, and UA forces fell back hard

Appreciate the answer!

I gotta disagree on some details, though. First the bolded part: I don't see Putin pushing into the territory on the right bank of the Dnieper. Imho, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Odessa are the north-western-most places of Russian interest in their respective parts of Ukraine. So if a peace deal was on the table in which Putin gets all those, he'd take it in a heartbeat. But such a deal would amount to a near-unconditional Ukrainian surrender anyway. My thinking is more concerned with what it would take for Putin to settle for a deal in which he doesn't get those places. And I have a much harder time seeing a rationale for him to take such a deal which would enshrine the current lines while his troops are making good progress toward high-value targets.



Second, the promise of lifting sanctions and reintegrating Russia in the Western economy seems wholly unrealistic to me. After the experience of the past 3 years, which investor (Western or Russian) would actually be willing to make major investment into new pipelines, new factories or new trade partnerships? Particularly against the backdrop of Western security guarantees for Ukraine, which would have to be part of any kind of deal, but would mean that trade breaks down again and investment will be lost as soon as the situation escalates yet again at any point in the future?

Furthermore, such an offer would expose the diverging economic self-interests within the West. Germany would love to gobble up as much natural gas as it can get while the Poles and Baltics would want a firm economic iron curtain to be upheld. The Americans would love to continue their LNG shipments to Europe, but also for the European economy to get going again, so they would imho want us to get some Russian resources, but not too much. It would also present Western corporations with difficult choices. Would BASF rethink plans to build new factories abroad if Germany regained access to cheap Russian gas, but its reliability was highly doubtful?

Tldr: the economic aftermath is a fucking mess.

1) Doubt Russians will let go of Kherson as it supplies fresh water to Crimea and Ukranians blocked that water and starved Crimea for 8 years. Dam blocking water supply to Crimea was blown up in 2022.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/04/north-crimean-canal-fills-with-water-after-russian-forces-destroyed-dam-a76755

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal

2) Zapprozhie has Nuclear plant which is a good asset to have. Energy supply for new regions is ensured if Energodar is kept within Russian control.

3) I think Russians would want to ensure no access to Black Sea for Ukraninan rump state leftovers so independence for Odessa / Nikolaev might be on the books (doubt Russians can take it by force or want to integrate Odessa/Nikolaev).