I'm not seeing this talked about enough, but the current hot thing is to sell fear and panic. Completely unremarkable financial advice youtube channels have a chicken little style clickbait upload just about every day and it keeps getting those clicks. China has been "collapsing" since 2014. The US Dollar has been "replaced" about a billion times. A bunch of horse shit. Exact same thing is happening with Ukraine Russia war reporting. Russia is collapsing, eh? Well.... we're waiting!

We live in an age of shortened attention spans.

Boring, measured analysis with no pictures or memes or drama doesn’t get enough clicks, means no ad revenues - means owners choose what sells best. And what sells best are captivating stories about international espionage, sprinkled with drama and interlaced with fearmongering and empathetic storytelling about little guy who’s suffering unjustly.

Hence the abundance of clickbaity article about TOTAL AN IMMINENT COLLAPSE PLEASE CLICK HERE PLEASE in YouTube videos and article headlines.

Choose your journalist carefully and follow those that have high quality standards. Do not lower yourself to the kind of tabloid stuff our Scotsman here loves to post.

The fall of Vuhledar in South Donetsk may end up being as impactful as the fall of Adviivka. The front hasn't stabilized, and the pace of the Russian advance is increasing. It helps that the rail lines connecting South Donetsk to Pokrovsk have already been cut near Selydove.

German Defense Company Rheinmetall has confirmed the first batch of KF41 Lynx tracked armored Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs) will be delivered to Ukraine by the end of 2024, with 10 vehicles set to arrive in this initial delivery.
https://armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/army-news-2024/breaking-news-germanys-rheinmetall-confirms-first-delivery-of-10-kf41-lynx-ifvs-to-ukraine-by-end-of-2024

Rheinmetall to build four weapon manufacturing plants in Ukraine, with one already operational, according to Rheinmetall's director, Armin Papperger.
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/four-rheinmetall-plants-set-to-launch-in-1729944205.html

Domestic production of weapons will be the only thing keeping Ukraine in this fight (imo). Hopefully these plants will be very far west and guarded will skynex. 10ifvs aint much but its the fact that these are built in Ukraine thats a big deal.

Past few days have seen Russia seize control over some significant villages/cities after UA retreats in good order. A big improvement from previous sieges where UA forces got encircled and abandoned but its also speeding up RU advances. Unconfirmed reports of conscripts refusing counterattack orders to cover the retreats, but I guess thats to be expected when you know your commanders will leave you behind

Selydove dropped very fast, RU only started a push 4 days ago. Guess I have to call it Selydivka now because it fell that fast. Didnt hold out like Vuhledar, but Selydivka was actually a bigger city.

We may be seeing the steamroll phase of the war start up
Thats 7 cities on the Donetsk front in 2 months, plus Avdeevka early this year. DPR is going to be reconstituted by the end of this war

This post was edited by Goomshill on Oct 26 2024 05:56pm

Actually Peter Zeihan and Gordon Chang have been saying China will collapse since 1999.

Given the current trajectory, the West and the Ukrainian government should reassess their approach to the war to reverse the current trends

Lower the minimum age and more aggressively pursue conscription
Lift restrictions on Western weaponry
Increase training and force multipliers
Enhance sanctions enforcement and economic pressure
Strengthen NATO’s Eastern Flank

The Ukraine war has entered a critical phase. The infusion of foreign troops on Russia’s behalf, coupled with Western hesitation in providing unrestricted support, has tipped the scales in Moscow’s favor.
https://cepa.org/article/a-sobering-moment-in-the-ukraine-war/

Not one mention of domestic drone/missle/nuke production. Please disregard the entirety of this article

Those are all issues with a real basis that are getting blown out of proportion by clickbait. The status of the US Dollar as the leading currency of the world has indeed been eroding. China's real estate sector is indeed in a major crisis. The Russian economy is indeed at risk of overheating.




What's most noteworthy about it is that Russia has maintained the upper hand throughout the summer this year. The last 2 years, Ukraine was the one with the initiative at this point in the calendar year.

Maybe I spoke too soon, there's RU drone footage in the last few hours showing a disorganized rout of UA soldiers on foot from Izmailova (until a few hours ago when it was captured, Izmailivka) on the Donetsk front, once again echoing the disastrous routs in the past where UA abandoned its soldiers with no armor or safe retreat corridors. People mocked Russian soldiers moving around on motorcycles but this is not the first time I've seen clusters of UA infantry forced into the wide open with no cover on foot during a retreat- in view of drones- and it usually ends the same way

If the DPR lines are collapsing this fast it could mean more catastrophes like Avdeevka and Artemovsk (Bakhmut). That's the 3rd village/city taken in the past 24 hours isn't it? actually fuck trying to keep names straight, i don't know which is UA/RU, but Selydove/selydivka, Izmailova/izmailivka and Bohoyavlenka/Bohoiavlenka
everything around Vuhledar
not good

Area in south east seems to be rolling over fast.

https://x.com/Kalibrated_Maps/status/1850505495125073975/photo/1
https://x.com/Kalibrated_Maps/status/1850504629731184811/photo/1

I'm curious what would actual terms for a peace pushed by a Trump admin look like? What are the odds they try to say something like okay current lines are where we freeze the conflict and that's where the borders are. If Russia thinks something like this would be a proposal, then they would have a bigger incentive to gobble up as much of the area. With mud season then winter it could be several months before we see bigger movements on the front, and by then (let's say mid spring) a peace deal could be brokered.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Oct 27 2024 08:17am