Russia will continue until they landlocked Ukraine.
Negotiations are no longer on the table.

What Mearsheimer said was on point, the longer you don't negotiate the more land you lose.

I bet he's glad to see some proper actions taken

Eh, I don't think that Ukraine would have lost less land in negotiations half a year ago than than they would in negotiations now, or half a year into the future.

With the benefit of hindsight, the time for Ukraine to suggest a negotiated peace was either in October 2022, after they had driven the Russians out of Kherson and Kharkiv, or in the spring of 2023 when they had stockpiled a lot of Western arms and could credibly threaten going on the offense.

Since their spring offense fizzled out and Russia took the step to move into full-fledged wartime footing, which was at some point during the summer of 2023, the Russians imho had no more incentive to settle for any kind of negotiated peace in which they don't get nearly everything they want: control of the entire East, control of the full Black Sea coastline and an unequivocal commitment of Ukraine to stay neutral and not join either NATO or the EU.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 20 2024 06:46am

I didn't say half a year back now or half a year in future, I said the longer you don't negotiate the more land you will lose.
Which also mean you should have negotiated in 2022.

They very clearly would have lost LESS land in negotiations in the fall of 2022 or the spring of 2023 than during negotiations in the spring of 2022. So no, there is no general principle that you lose the more the longer you wait.

Now, it's too late for that anyway. The only possible outcome of negotiations taking place now would be a dictated peace which more or less amounts to Ukraine's unconditional surrender. Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield so strongly, and has already dedicated so many economic resources, that they have zero incentive to settle for less.


For now, it seems as if the West has kinda given up on this war. There is still some vague hope that Russia will run out of steam, based either on their economy overheating, or on them running out of their Soviet-era stockpiles. To me it seems as if the West wants to see if this scenario pans out while keeping its commitment level muted, and will sacrifice Ukraine if this strategy of outlasting the Russians doesn't work.

My point is , I just pointed out Mearshiemer's comment very very early on that he said that the longer you take to negotiate the more land you are going to lose.
Which you have also said and pointed out that they very clearly would have loss less land in 2022 for example..

So it makes sense.. the longer you fail to start or negotiate a cease fire you are going to lose more land if the war continues unless you you think you can win it.

It is very straightforward here, Ukraine are being led into believing they are going to win with the Full Support of the West and NATO. Simple as that.

It looks like it is failing right now and they should have negotiate earlier. I am not trying to play with my words in my comment. It was very very straight forward.

You fail to negotiate, you lose lands in a prolonged war. And if you continue not to negotiate, you are going to lose even more. If I remembered correct, the Russians have been asking if they want to negotiate a couple of times. last year, early this year , mid this year.

, maybe you can fill me in here since I am not quite up to date as to whether Russia tried to initiate negotiations recently.

So it's simple. You don't talk, we continue the war , you losing , you lose lands. If you win and push back you win lands. Simple as that.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Oct 20 2024 07:22am

You know it's funny, I m not trying to take a jibe at the left, especially in the States.

For the past 15 or so years, they have been so called progressive, inclusive and promoting Safe space domestically.

But when it comes to geo politics, they don't seem to understand the safe space concept well enough.

Seizure of Orthodox temple in Ukraine, priest's PoV:





This post was edited by Norlander on Oct 20 2024 08:54am

Nah. Russia would only attack if Ukraine was developing nukes. Once ukraine has a stockpile of em, id bet that putin wouldnt risk moscow getting glassed. Nukes are called the great equalizer for a reason.

And i think that the Ukrainians are crazy enough to do that.