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Oct 17 2024 02:54pm
Quote (Norlander @ 17 Oct 2024 20:29)
So Russia is a cuckold psycho and Ukraine is a whore with post-maternal depression xD


XD

This conflict indeed feels like the terminal stages of an ugly divorce, when the relationship between two sides which used to be close has become irretrievably broken and there is nothing left but hatred and disdain.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 17 2024 02:54pm
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Oct 17 2024 03:00pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Oct 17 2024 03:52pm)
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/10/17/7480130/

Generally I'm ambivalent to the Ukraine vs Russia balance of power. Whether Russia takes more or less of the breadbasket when the war ends, how much of the country they fold back into their sphere of influence- doesn't really concern me as an American. If they took the entirety of Ukraine they'd just be back where they started prior to 2014, anything we pick up beyond that is either our gain or our hungry mouths to feed, maybe just another net taker on the EU welfare buck.

If Ukraine is pursuing nuclear weapons again, I'd say its better if Russia completely crushes the country. Not enough to just leave half of Ukraine loosely aligned with the west and not formally within NATO. Having an unstable neo-nazi led failed state with nuclear weapons would be far worse than the status quo of Iran, and far easier for an intervening power to stop. Russia carpet bombing Kiev would be preferable to Zelensky getting nuclear weapons.


and as followup;

North Korea and Iran both went towards nuclear weapons when dug in like ticks, meaning it would be extremely costly in blood and treasure to stop them. And they both went for nuclear weapons with a reasonably stable regime that wanted nukes primarily for self-preservation, with no hot wars, only at worst proxy conflicts and jostling for influence and boundaries. Even with all those limiting factors it was still a serious debate whether we should commit to crushing them before they could get nukes. And its still an open question whether it will lead to an inevitable apocalyptic conflict with Israel. But Ukraine isn't even close to their level of self-sustainability or security, its a puppet regime in a hot proxy war that has ever indicator for internal collapse and takeover by the most extremist sect in the world. Iran would be a different calculation if instead of Twelver shias and secular politicians it was going to be taken over by actual neo-nazi war criminals with a self-destructive hatred of their neighbors and willingness to plunge into suicide attacks.

If Ukraine tries to go towards nukes, Russia has the means to flatten the west for a lot less risk and cost right now than we could ever engage Iran or the DPRK. Whether by conventional destruction of cities or just lobbing nukes at them. Ukraine isn't building nukes inside of underground bunkers under miles of mountains



I struggle hard to imagine a worse scenario for nuclear proliferation than a regime that is losing a conventional war, under existential threat and near to internal collapse seeking to get their hand on doomsday weapons as a desperate means to attack a major nuclear power.

This post was edited by Goomshill on Oct 17 2024 03:01pm
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Oct 17 2024 05:33pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Oct 17 2024 05:00pm)
and as followup;

North Korea and Iran both went towards nuclear weapons when dug in like ticks, meaning it would be extremely costly in blood and treasure to stop them. And they both went for nuclear weapons with a reasonably stable regime that wanted nukes primarily for self-preservation, with no hot wars, only at worst proxy conflicts and jostling for influence and boundaries. Even with all those limiting factors it was still a serious debate whether we should commit to crushing them before they could get nukes. And its still an open question whether it will lead to an inevitable apocalyptic conflict with Israel. But Ukraine isn't even close to their level of self-sustainability or security, its a puppet regime in a hot proxy war that has ever indicator for internal collapse and takeover by the most extremist sect in the world. Iran would be a different calculation if instead of Twelver shias and secular politicians it was going to be taken over by actual neo-nazi war criminals with a self-destructive hatred of their neighbors and willingness to plunge into suicide attacks.

If Ukraine tries to go towards nukes, Russia has the means to flatten the west for a lot less risk and cost right now than we could ever engage Iran or the DPRK. Whether by conventional destruction of cities or just lobbing nukes at them. Ukraine isn't building nukes inside of underground bunkers under miles of mountains



I struggle hard to imagine a worse scenario for nuclear proliferation than a regime that is losing a conventional war, under existential threat and near to internal collapse seeking to get their hand on doomsday weapons as a desperate means to attack a major nuclear power.


Reading too much into empty words. They aren't getting nukes. If they try the Russians will parking lot wherever this is taking place. If they were on their way to getting nukes Russia would absolutely pre-emptively strike very heavily and they would be dumb not to.

No sensible western politicians would allow or fund this dumbfuckery either. You'd have to be next level retarded to encourage/allow a losing side to whip out nukes.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Oct 17 2024 05:36pm
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Oct 17 2024 06:19pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Oct 17 2024 06:33pm)
Reading too much into empty words. They aren't getting nukes. If they try the Russians will parking lot wherever this is taking place. If they were on their way to getting nukes Russia would absolutely pre-emptively strike very heavily and they would be dumb not to.

No sensible western politicians would allow or fund this dumbfuckery either. You'd have to be next level retarded to encourage/allow a losing side to whip out nukes.


Direct quote from Zelensky;
Quote
"What choices do we have? Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, which will serve as protection, or it must be part of some kind of alliance. Apart from NATO, we do not know of such an effective alliance."


How many escalations in Ukraine followed a pattern of Ukrainian proxies demanding it, the US rejecting it, and then eventually it being given to Ukraine by the US a few months later?
That's one hell of a dangerous pattern
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Oct 18 2024 07:13am
Quote (Goomshill @ Oct 17 2024 04:52pm)
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/10/17/7480130/

Generally I'm ambivalent to the Ukraine vs Russia balance of power. Whether Russia takes more or less of the breadbasket when the war ends, how much of the country they fold back into their sphere of influence- doesn't really concern me as an American. If they took the entirety of Ukraine they'd just be back where they started prior to 2014, anything we pick up beyond that is either our gain or our hungry mouths to feed, maybe just another net taker on the EU welfare buck.

If Ukraine is pursuing nuclear weapons again, I'd say its better if Russia completely crushes the country. Not enough to just leave half of Ukraine loosely aligned with the west and not formally within NATO. Having an unstable neo-nazi led failed state with nuclear weapons would be far worse than the status quo of Iran, and far easier for an intervening power to stop. Russia carpet bombing Kiev would be preferable to Zelensky getting nuclear weapons.


I just stumble upon this and I must comment that this is not how the world work. Russia war is based on imperialism and fake theocratic and the idea that force make might and whoever winning is on God's side. Russia winning the war with support means that in the future, Russian model is glorified - victim blaming, installing state religion, oppressing dissident. There is little incentive for other countries and our own NOT to do the same. More freedom of speech and religions will be squashed.

Religion play a major aspect of this war that people keep ignoring, and we will have fake gods imposed on us soon if this continues.
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Oct 18 2024 07:26am
Quote (Saphy @ 18 Oct 2024 21:13)
I just stumble upon this and I must comment that this is not how the world work. Russia war is based on imperialism and fake theocratic and the idea that force make might and whoever winning is on God's side. Russia winning the war with support means that in the future, Russian model is glorified - victim blaming, installing state religion, oppressing dissident. There is little incentive for other countries and our own NOT to do the same. More freedom of speech and religions will be squashed.

Religion play a major aspect of this war that people keep ignoring, and we will have fake gods imposed on us soon if this continues.


too much social media is bad for understanding the world.
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Oct 18 2024 07:40am
Quote (Saphy @ Oct 18 2024 08:13am)
I just stumble upon this and I must comment that this is not how the world work. Russia war is based on imperialism and fake theocratic and the idea that force make might and whoever winning is on God's side. Russia winning the war with support means that in the future, Russian model is glorified - victim blaming, installing state religion, oppressing dissident. There is little incentive for other countries and our own NOT to do the same. More freedom of speech and religions will be squashed.

Religion play a major aspect of this war that people keep ignoring, and we will have fake gods imposed on us soon if this continues.


Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Oct 18 2024 08:26am)
too much social media is bad for understanding the world.


This.

Don't confuse the way you want the world to work with the way the world actually works.

The only countries in the world that have true sovereignty are those with enough economic and military power to exert their will. Every other country is beholden to them. Any preachy nonsense about "rules based order" or "international law" is little more than fig leaf covering a hegemony enforced by might. America wants to arbitrarily say some revolutionary regimes are actually legitimate freedom fighters and others are despicable oppressive juntas. And the only line distinguishing them is whether they support our interests, or are our puppet governments. Zelensky has been in power with no elections, banned the opposition, disenfranchised half his country, and came to power by overthrowing a legitimate representative democracy in a coup led by a neo-nazi vanguard, and now he persecutes the orthodox church. Dissenting journalists are put on a kill list and assassinated. Over in Chad, we support president Deby and declare him to be the legitimate democratic representative of his people and saluted him for his successful elections, which of course took place after his death squads raided the home of the main opposition candidate and executed him and his family and massacred his supporters. The Iranians are a repressive totalitarian terrorist regime that persecutes women but the Saudis are our valued forward-thinking allies striving towards expanded women's rights

The Russian-Ukrainian war is based simply on spheres of influence and the willingness and capability of the major world powers to defend them. America seized half of Ukraine from Russia's sphere by a color revolution. Russia secured their half with a military invasion, and when the dust settles who will gain what? It sure as hell won't be based on religion, or international law or rules. It will be based on America's unwillingness to invest the military might necessary to hold the sweetbread cuts of Ukraine and Russia's capability to win a proxy war against western powers.
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Oct 18 2024 07:53am
Everytime someone comes in with the we are the greatest moral authority with unprecedented moral legitimacy, I start to sigh......here we go again...
.
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Oct 18 2024 04:40pm
Korean scenario went wrong it seems
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Oct 18 2024 04:44pm
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Oct 18 2024 06:26am)
too much social media is bad for understanding the world.


It's actually amazing what 15 years of regime propaganda echo chambers can get people to believe

What that dude wrote is the common belief of dysgenic Reddit types, they believe this unironically and with zero critical thought.

This post was edited by El1te on Oct 18 2024 04:44pm
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