Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 1 2024 05:23pm)
Most of those points are of economic, rather than military nature.
Regarding the ruble: the ruble has lost 15% of its value against the euro or us dollar over the past 2 months, but it's too early to tell whether this is just a fluctuation or a persistent trend. Comparing with the exchange rate from before the invasion, the ruble has also only lost around 15%, which really isn't too bad considering the circumstances. That's less than what the Japanese Yen has lost over the same time frame, to name just one example.
The national wealth fund was specifically designed for a situation like this, the money would otherwise have sat around. It's not like Putin and the oligarchs would otherwise have used that money to improve the lives of ordinary Russians, lmao. Likewise, the soviet-era stockpiles of artillery, shells and tanks had no other benefit than being put to use in a war. The casualties are heavily skewed toward the dregs of Russian society, mostly low education and low productivity males from the periphery, convicts, mercenaries and so on and forth.
Aside from alienating the most solvent buyers of their gas, Russia hasn't sustained devastating damage just yet. Things might look very different in a couple of months if their economy truly overheats and the decline of the ruble becomes a persistent trend. Which brings me back to the previous point: this is a race against time for both sides and I have no clue if the Ukrainian or Russian clock will be up first.
Militarily the case is potentially the worst of all.
Assault on Kiev, failed. Assault on Odessa, failed. Capture and hold Kharkiv, no. Hold Kherson, no.
Masses of intelligence on tactics and systems, scores of generals killed, regular and experienced troops slaughtered replaced by renta-troops and conscripts.
Shoigu has been found out and replaced. Sales of Russian military tech are drying up as they shift to producing material solely for the war effort.
The glimmers of anything militarily positive are essentially nothing burgers, that were inevitable or already known factors.
Russia has more artillery than the poorest country in Europe, that's obvious.
The Russian air force can use glide bombs against an adversary that had essentially zero AA before the war began, of course they can, that's obvious.
The Russian military is wholly and undisputedly discredited by its performance in Ukraine, regardless of any territorial gains.
Russias military reputation is in complete tatters.
"but Ukraine is wrecked" Doesn't even come close to mitigating the decades of shame Russians will endure for Putins colossal blunder.
This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Oct 1 2024 10:34am