Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 1 2024 04:50pm)
I said the current military situation is far from a disaster for Russia. They quite clearly have the upper hand.
Look, I'm totally with you that this war would, on aggregate, be quite the disaster for Russia if the war just stopped today and the present-day front lines were enshrined. But that's just not realistic. Even if Ukraine should in the end be able to outlast Russia, or fend them off based on surging arms supplies from the West, Russia would still make further gains in the mean time. And there is a non-zero risk that their front line collapses under the pressure and Russia achieves the big breakthrough which they have been (unsuccessfully) seeking for the past 2 years.
If they can take Odessa and the rest of the Black Sea shoreline, or Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, then the outcome of this war looks a lot more friendly for them. Until this scenario is unequivocally off the table, it is too early to declare this war a comprehensive failure for Russia.
And where would Russia be without Iranian missiles and drones, or without China helping them evade the sanctions? If China didn't provide them with pretty much everything they need, the technological sanctions would have completely crippled Russia by now.
The Russo-Ukrainian war is basically the first big proxy conflict of Cold War 2.0.
Respect your assessment of what a victory looks like for Russia, and its no secret they are making incremental gains in the Donbas; but it seems we fundamentally disagree on what actually constitutes anything short of a disaster for Russia.
The list of net losses far, far outweigh any territorial grab that Putin will undoubtedly claim was worth it or somehow a win for ordinary Russians.
The ruble is in freefall, domestic economy drastically overheating, revenues of gas sales crippled, national fund depleting, military reputation destroyed, minimum of 80k dead troops, likely far, far more, hundreds if not thousands of hardware pieces destroyed, more countries entering NATO, closer NATO co-operation and increased spending...
The list goes on and on. And Ukraine looks no less likely to join NATO or the EU or both in coming years. If Putin negotiates for a ceasefire Ukraine can be tracked into NATO, if he seeks to continue a frozen conflict he is running out of time before the Russian economy is all but obliterated.
All for a slither of territory, that happens to be destroyed, heavily mined and within Ukrainian strike range, of what was the poorest territory on the continent.
The only consolation being touted by anti West shills, is that Ukraine has been destroyed; As if that was ever a stated goal of Putins, or if that somehow mitigates the disaster for Russia.
Ukraine was always slated to be destroyed in the event Russia invaded; Putin just happened to decapitate Russia in the process.
This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Oct 1 2024 10:02am