Quote (dro94 @ Sep 27 2024 04:23pm)
Ukraine is losing a similar number of people, but for them, the war is existential. If necessary, they'll throw every man into the war to preserve their independence as a state. However, Russia cannot feasibly do this. The economic costs are too great to convince the population that it's necessary when it's not a defensive war, and it risks destabilising Putin's regime. That's why he has played every trick in the book to avoid a second round of mobilisation, including huge financial incentives for kontraktniki. Another salient point is that Russia are attacking, and military doctrine generally states that the advancing force should have a ratio of at least 3:1.
You bolded one point and ignored every one of the others - is that confirmation that you are in agreement with me on 5/6 of the key differences between 2022 and now?
The UN has Ukraine's population at 38m for 2024, btw. Something isn't stacking up with what you're saying...perhaps your source isn't taking into account the people that returned to the country.
38MM people, lmao, that's nonsense. I mean for a second look up the pre-war population of Crimea, Donetsk city, Luhansk, and so on, look around Europe how many Ukrainians are in the larger cities. Do some back of the napkin math and try to reconcile how their population in 2024 would be 38million. I attend a Slavic church at least monthly which has seen literally hundreds of Ukrainians come during the last ~1.5 years. Nanny we had a few months back was a 20 year old from Lutsk, then her 25yr old bf came and they got married. She had half of her extended family come here (dozens of family members) within the last year, he had family also come here recently. Approximately 30-40% of the church now is new comer Ukrainian refugees. Glad they are here, safe and not forced to die for nothing. Wish for them to grow old fat and happy instead of prodded like mindless cattle for geopolitical benefit.
If you really care to dig you can find sources that shed some light on the truth. For example, written by a Ukrainian demographics expert that over a year ago said the population could be as low as 28MM. So per below if 10million did not return, how would it make sense the number would be 38? What about the millions that are left in Crimea, Donetsk city, Zap Oblast, Kherson, Luhansk and so on? What about the millions that fled to Russia and that wouldn't be counted within the crossing into Europe number?
Quote
Of more than 12 million Ukrainians who crossed the border with European countries after February 24,
2022, only 1.5 million returned.
https://ekmair.ukma.edu.ua/server/api/core/bitstreams/4c6b7566-232a-4e22-8ccb-e0a9373e2ae2/contentWe've beat this horse to death, the regulars who post in this thread. Yes, the attacker would lose more in a traditional war. But Russia has significant air advantage over Ukraine, significant artillery advantage, so no the losses would not be 3:1.
This post was edited by ofthevoid on Sep 27 2024 03:02pm