Quote (dro94 @ Sep 26 2024 04:06pm)

I think there are a multitude of reasons why supporting Ukraine through 2025 is the best strategy for the West:

1) Russia has transformed its economy into a wartime economy with large deficits and withdrawals from their National Wealth Fund to pay for the war. Inflation is stubbornly high, with their interest rate being increased to 20% to keep it in check and support the falling ruble. There are significant labour shortages, partially driven by the mobilisation and partially by the death and injury of hundreds of thousands of men in the war, which is further harming the demographics of the country and causing inflation. Much of the economic growth is being driven by the production of missiles and vehicles, and the incomes of Russian servicemen by the government, which are not productive to the Russian economy long term. Western countries, on the other hand, are not on a wartime footing, so supporting Ukraine with a small proportion of their military budgets is not detrimental to our long term outlook.

2) Oil demand is flat and not forecasted to increase significantly in the near future; as such, Brent Crude is trading within the $70-75 a barrel range, much lower than the $90-110 range we saw in 2022. $70 oil isn't a disaster for Russia, but it's not a tailwind either. If oil dropped to $60 a barrel or below, it would be a disaster - the NWF would be drained within a year with current government expenditure.

3) Due to sanctions and lack of high-end components being produced domestically, Russia relies on taking old military equipment out of storage and refurbishing them, and military experts forecast the stockpiles of this equipment will be dwindling as early as late 2025. Meanwhile, Ukraine doesn't have this problem as they don't need to produce a lot of military equipment domestically - we have plenty of it in the West.

In light of all this, it's unlikely Russia can continue a protracted war against Ukraine if we continue to back them, which will lead to a better negotiating position for Ukraine in the future.

Quote (ofthevoid @ Sep 27 2024 07:08pm)

How is this different from like 2022? I'm really astonished how after years of these strategies not working, surely they will work in 2025. Just one more year! Let's keep it going guys, them giving up is right around the corner. We've heard this type of logic for the last 2 years plastered across western front pages. Russia is out of missiles, Russia is out of troops, Russia is out of bullets and is zerg rushing with shovels. I mean at some point, you have to grow wary of experts that are continuously wrong.

And Ukraine's population is not 38MM. It's easily sub 25MM at this point. I have seen a huge influx of refugees within the medium size US city that i live in. Both women and men, and fun fact about the men? Most are in their late 20s and 30s. There's a reason why Ukraine's avg. troop age is mid 40's. They are quickly getting to the point, where if men in critical parts of the economy continue to get mobilized, that it impacts just normal everyday social structures.

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Sep 27 2024 02:34pm)

What do you mean not working? Ukraine was supposed to roll over in a matter of weeks.
Putin is crippling the Russian economy and demographic for at best a generation with his militaries abysmal performance.
Russia doesn't even control a single major city and retreated from 4 major cities after failing to assault and hold them.

The scraping of any value for the sunk cost is that they pushed Ukrainian troops out of Avdiivka and can prevent direct shelling of Donetsk proper.

Obviously the truth is hidden from ordinary Russians and perhaps the average citizen is apathetic enough to accept a trade of at least 80k dead for a slither of Ukrainian territory.

This will be remembered as the most infamous miltary failure since the Nazis retreated from Moscow.

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Sep 27 2024 08:34pm)

What do you mean not working? Ukraine was supposed to roll over in a matter of weeks.
Putin is crippling the Russian economy and demographic for at best a generation with his militaries abysmal performance.
Russia doesn't even control a single major city and retreated from 4 major cities after failing to assault and hold them.

The scraping of any value for the sunk cost is that they pushed Ukrainian troops out of Avdiivka and can prevent direct shelling of Donetsk proper.

Obviously the truth is hidden from ordinary Russians and perhaps the average citizen is apathetic enough to accept a trade of at least 80k dead for a slither of Ukrainian territory.
Any rational person can see that is a completely insane trade.

This will be remembered as the most infamous miltary failure since the Nazis retreated from Moscow.

Quote (Djunior @ Sep 27 2024 03:05pm)

Ukraine relies on ongoing support from the combined West and their allies comrade and still they're losing town after town and stronghold after stronghold.

You keep droning about events earlier in the war when Ukraine was able to retake large areas quickly only because a small Russian invasion force was overstretched and exposed.

People who think for 2 seconds and look at the situation on the ground right now fully understand that this is a completely different situation, the Russians are dug in, outnumber the Ukrainians and have more of everything from artillery to glide bombs.

Quote (ofthevoid @ Sep 27 2024 07:36pm)

Your wishful thinking is not how objective people see the world. We in the US spent 10 trillion in 3 failed wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. If Russia can keep a land mass the size of GB as a result of this war not spending no where near that, it's not the sky has fallen scenario you paint it to be.

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Sep 27 2024 03:13pm)

The US has that money to spend. Russia doesn't.
Money aside the US had just over 7k killed in the combined war on terror. That's multiple theatres of war over multiple decades.

Russia just lost at LEAST 80k dead, confirmed. In less than 3 years.

Do the research.
It is your wishful thinking that is subjective on this matter.

Quote (ofthevoid @ Sep 27 2024 03:20pm)

I thought it was 500k?

80k or 500k or even a million in a country of 150million doesn't materially change the course of the nation. Sure, it's obviously a negative but it's not detrimental. This war would really have to go sideways for Russia to be viewed in the same light as the German WW2 failures.

I do my research that's the thing, while you keep posting the same wishful 'Russia is on the verge of collapse' thinking going on for 2 years now mate. Maybe it happens? But really there's not an ounce of evidence for it today.