Scots and Brits alike forgot more about freedom than any Russian will ever know

Serf

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Sep 25 2024 02:56pm

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1fp33vi/polish_mfa_to_russian_ambassador_to_un_how_does/

Putin has made Russia into a knock off third reich.
Where are the descenting Russians? Or are they all complicit but living in the west?

The irony

I think there are a multitude of reasons why supporting Ukraine through 2025 is the best strategy for the West:

1) Russia has transformed its economy into a wartime economy with large deficits and withdrawals from their National Wealth Fund to pay for the war. Inflation is stubbornly high, with their interest rate being increased to 20% to keep it in check and support the falling ruble. There are significant labour shortages, partially driven by the mobilisation and partially by the death and injury of hundreds of thousands of men in the war, which is further harming the demographics of the country and causing inflation. Much of the economic growth is being driven by the production of missiles and vehicles, and the incomes of Russian servicemen by the government, which are not productive to the Russian economy long term. Western countries, on the other hand, are not on a wartime footing, so supporting Ukraine with a small proportion of their military budgets is not detrimental to our long term outlook.

2) Oil demand is flat and not forecasted to increase significantly in the near future; as such, Brent Crude is trading within the $70-75 a barrel range, much lower than the $90-110 range we saw in 2022. $70 oil isn't a disaster for Russia, but it's not a tailwind either. If oil dropped to $60 a barrel or below, it would be a disaster - the NWF would be drained within a year with current government expenditure.

3) Due to sanctions and lack of high-end components being produced domestically, Russia relies on taking old military equipment out of storage and refurbishing them, and military experts forecast the stockpiles of this equipment will be dwindling as early as late 2025. Meanwhile, Ukraine doesn't have this problem as they don't need to produce a lot of military equipment domestically - we have plenty of it in the West.

In light of all this, it's unlikely Russia can continue a protracted war against Ukraine if we continue to back them, which will lead to a better negotiating position for Ukraine in the future.

Very good post. Specifically the point about Russia relying on Soviet-era stockpiles which have to run out at some point, which I've made repeatedly as well. A lot of the outlook hinges on when exactly they will run out, though. Particularly in light of NATO stockpiles also dwindling, and also being drained by support for Israel, Taiwan or the anti-Houthi mission in the Red Sea.

Also, at the current rate, it's not clear whether Ukraine can actually hold on until late 2025 or early 2026 (if Russian stockpiles last a bit longer than anticipated) at current levels of Western support. For your scenario to pan out, the West might have to increase its support and commitment for Ukraine, which is something I see no appetite for. The way I see it, this war is not only a race against time for Russia, but also for Ukraine - and we don't actually know whose clock will run out first.

It's important we differentiate between NATO countries when talking about stockpiles. Stockpiles of European countries are dwindling, but the USA's stockpiles are not. They could support Ukraine with their current stockpiles for many years, with the exception of some specific equipment like anti-aircraft missiles.

Despite all the challenges, NATO countries have still managed to ramp up production by c.30% since the onset of the full-scale invasion. It's not enough, but together with the US we can still supply Ukraine with enough to keep going.

Ukraine will continue to lose ground most likely, but the likelihood of the frontline collapsing is remote. If there's anything we've learnt from the past 2.5 years, it's that Ukraine are a tough bunch and won't just lay down. It's a huge country with a 38m population and many battle-hardened veterans who are on the defensive and able to inflict massive casualties. Ultimately, the war will be ended at the negotiating table, and the less ground ceded to Russia before that point, the better it will be for negotiations. Due to the economic and military constraints on Russia, this is likely to happen within the next 18 months.

I don't think a collapse of Ukraine's frontlines is imminent, but I wouldn't exactly call this possibility "remote" either. Russia's advance in the south-east has picked up pace in recent months and there are plenty of reports from Ukrainian soldiers about the deteriorating situation. At this point in the calendar year, Ukraine had the upper hand the last two years, but is on the backfoot this time around. Their staffing and recruiting issues are also evident. Hard to tell how recruitment is going on the Russian side since they have more pervasive censorship, but we know it's not going too great for the Ukrainians.

They might be able to hold on until Russia runs out of steam, but it's not guaranteed imho. And there is, of course, significant uncertainty about how long it will actually take before Russia runs out of steam. Certain Western military analysts predict a timeframe of 12-18 months, but what if it's 36 months instead? I doubt that Ukraine can hang on for that long.

Surrender is not really an option; Ukraine therefore has no better options than to keep fighting and hoping for the best anyway... I guess my point is that your outlook on the current status quo of this war is too optimistic.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 27 2024 06:28am

Biden announces $8 billion in military aid for Ukraine
The aid includes the first shipment of a precision-guided glide bomb called the Joint Standoff Weapon, with a range of up to 81 miles (130 km). The medium-range missile gives Ukraine a major upgrade to the weapons it is using to strike Russian forces, allowing the Ukrainians to do it at safer distances.

This will provide Ukraine with additional air defense, unmanned aerial systems and air-to-ground munitions, as well as strengthen Ukraine's defense industrial base and support its maintenance and sustainment requirements, Biden said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/26/biden-announces-8-billion-in-military-aid-for-ukraine.html

It's only optimistic if you believe most military experts are too optimistic.

We do know that Russian recruitment is going badly, otherwise they wouldn't be offering 3x the cash than they were a year ago. The largest demographic of casualties has been kontratkniki for months now - last year it was convicts. This will cause more headaches for Putin and his regime back home.

The manpower situation for Ukraine is bad but it's not decisive.

This post was edited by dro94 on Sep 27 2024 10:03am