Sometimes, I wonder if history books will conclude that we were already in WW3 and just hadn't realized it yet....

Dnieper hydro is allegedly being repaired. Kiev hydro was just taken out.

Transmission lines are relatively easy to repair, however high voltage (750kv) transformers are in short supply globally due to energy transition efforts and if those are damaged in Ukraine it can take months to source a replacement.

Ukraine has reportedly ca 14gw of generation capacity left (ca 8gw through 9 nuclear reactors at 3 power plants it still controls, rest through minor hydro/solar/wind, leftover gas peakers and coal stations) which needs to be transmitted via 750kv lines and then downvolted to your 220v consumer specs. If transformers are out - nukes have to be throttled.

They also have interconnectors with Poland / Moldova (Romania ultimately) / Hungary and rely on those heavily, however Romanian nuclear has been suffering outages at Cernavoda nuclear reactor lately, with the latest unplanned outage happening few days ago (https://economedia.ro/breaking-avarie-la-un-reactor-al-centralei-nucleare-cernavoda-in-plina-canicula-hidroelectrica-isi-creste-rapid-productia-ca-sa-acopere-deficitul-de-productie.html)


Thick lines are 750kv transmission grids. Vinnitsa substation was targeted again so now they have to scramble to rejig surviving equipment to continue transmitting with the remaining network.

Looks like Russian forces are about to enter Selydove, the largest local city outside of Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. It's right off the main southern highway feeding into Pokrovsk, between that and Novohrodivka the way looks pretty clear.

Already there. Ukraine was caught completely flat footed. I mean some Ukrainians are saying that this is deliberate because they realized they couldn't hold the Donbass, and Kursk was the diversion to take away from the imminent collapse. If it's true though that ~25k Ukrainian troops were sent to Kursk while southern Donbass is in absolute free fall then maybe there's some truth to the conspiracies. It's more face saving i guess saying we're fighting and losing this land instead of publicly withdrawing from the Donbass and admitting you're conceding.



https://x.com/SU_57R/status/1828845919196066202

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Aug 28 2024 11:39am

If Ukraine is tacitly conceding the remaining cities of the Donbass, the big question will be if the Russians stop there, or if they will keep pushing toward Kharkiv and Dnipro after they have regrouped. Capturing the whole Donbass is a prime off-ramp for Putin. He could sell this as "mission accomplished" to his people and the world and basically claim that this war effort resulted in triumphant victory.

For example, he could publicly offer Ukraine a peace deal along the lines of
"You accept the realitites on the ground, acknowledge that the Donbass is now Novorossiya and retreat from Kursk. And no NATO bases on your territory. If you do that, we will not push any further and the shelling of Ukrainian cities will stop. Unless you attack us again, in that case, the shelling will resume."

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 28 2024 03:03pm

They'll keep pushing. The minimum territorial demands are the 4 oblasts outlined in Russia's constitution, but I'd wager a whole lot that Putin also wants considerable control over rump Ukraine. Russian opposition media is reporting that voluntary enlistment skyrocketed post-Kursk as Russians from wealthier regions experience a rally around the flag effect. I'm not saying Putin won't negotiate, but it would come with preconditions which would collapse the current Ukrainian regime.

Besides, I've never believed that Russian goals were limited to one strip of land. They want to link with Transnistria and Moldova, they want the historic "Russian" cities of Odessa and Kharkiv, and they want a puppet regime in Kiev. It now looks like they could have it, so why stop now?

This post was edited by bogie160 on Aug 28 2024 03:27pm

The walls are closing in on Ukraine

F16s+Palianytsia drones+ballistic missles could slow things down for the russians:

Ukraine has tested its first ballistic missile, and the result was "positive," President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday.

The development comes three days after Ukraine announced it successfully launched its first missile-drone, Palyanytsia.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-invasion-first-ballistic-missile-volodymyr-zelenskyy-military-production/

Slow closing walls are still closing

As I mentioned before it takes highly trained people to operate F16s, you can't plug n' play with some Ukrainian wheat farmer, and I doubt retired American personnel are willing to volunteer to go and be captured & tortured

Sure but atleast these things can theoretically buy the Ukranians time. It's the same thing with the kursk incursion; it's a gambit to get a firing position deeper into Russian territory. (atleast I think so cause nothing else makes sense)

The only way Ukraine "doesn't lose worse" is by holding on to as much land till Trump hopefully gets elected. A lend-lease program between uncle sam and Ukraine could be devastating to Russia.