This goes back to my old question to which no one has ever provided a satisfactory answer:
If Western support is winding down, Ukraine is running out of manpower anyway and Russia is capable of keeping this rate of warfare going for a long time, then why would Russia agree to any peace deal which doesn't give them EVERYTHING that they want?

All the territory to the east of the Dnieper River. Kharkiv. Odessa. Enshrining the complete demilitarization of Ukraine in this broadly recognized piece of international law which the US and the Euros sign, so that Russia can point to it if the West ever supports Ukraine arming up again. Ukraine's government officially agreeing to "denazification efforts" on all its territory. Officially recognizing that such a denazification is necessary and will be carried out as Russia sees fit within the boundaries of "Novorossiya", so that Russia has the international law on its side when it proceeds with brutal purges. Which will, of course, not just affect true nazis, but any pro-Ukrainian or pro-Western elements in Novorossiya.



You guys insist that Russia is fully stable and showing barely any cracks under the burden of this war while Ukraine is on the verge of collapse, so why should Russia not seize the opportunity to settle this conflict in its favor once and for all?

They made it clear that they want the annexed oblasts and that Ukraine stays neutral (no NATO membership), this has been pointed out many times.

If you've got a source that tells us that Russia wants all the land East of the Dnieper, post up.

Mostly because it seems they don’t need extra land or cities no matter what western couch pundits say. Integrating relatively poorer country means new pressure on pension system, infrastructure investments to rebuild destroyed electric generation, culture change to “adapt” new regions and what not. I’m not sure Russia wants or can hold or is able to integrate lands west of Dnepr.

One main thing they want to ensure that there will be no NATO in Ukraine which is a tricky thing to do since their direct request not to move NATO to Ukraine was not honoured neither by Clinton (see my earlier post on Yeltsin/Clinton declassified meeting https://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=92094408&f=119&p=664382154#p664382154), nor by the likes of Bush/Obama/Biden or their European counterparts. Goals of Demilitarisation / Denzification / territory changes are all up for negotiations I would say. Note that “waiting until Putin dies” is not a valid strategy in my opinion as Russian understanding of foreign policy doesn’t change with the guy in charge (see above Yeltsin/Clinton dialogue in 1997)

The way to go forward for Russians it seems is to punish Ukranian leadership / elites for intransigence to ensure political climate changes and this understanding is ingrained into whatever will remain of Ukraine after this is finished. It sounds awful and cynical, but it seems they are waiting for a total collapse of Ukranian society as they are not able or not willing to commit more resources to this conflict (for example when and if the far right which is armed to the teeth now - will overthrow the govt again and lose western support). This might take years if there is no solid progress on peace negotiations by November 2024.

This post was edited by Malopox on Jul 29 2024 05:24am

1. Because the war is costly that's why and they don't really need a western Ukraine that's clearly anti-Russian.

and 2. Listen to western/Ukrainian peace conferences. Most are still asking for absolutist asks of getting all territories back and Ukraine being promised NATO. I believe if Russia thought Ukraine/west was serious about a peace deal they'd want to see evidence with some of this public rhetoric either walked back or stopped.

Yup, you nailed it. You also had an earlier post where you stated that this conflict was turning into ww1 style warfare
(trenches,artillery etc.) with drones. This is hitting the nail on the head and the only reason why the Russians have up'd the tempo in recent months is because they're running away with glide bombs and EW/ECCM. The only counter to this is either jets doing a2a missions or moving AA systems closer to the front. Until Ukraine starts doing this, theres no stopping the Russian advance.

If Trump makes good on his 500 Billy "Ukraine peace plan" and if I was in zelenskys shoes, I would take a page from the new axis member Iran; forget about everything and double down on missles. Spend all that cash on mrbms and then watch how fast the Russians come to the negotiating table

Breaching MTCR framework is a double-edged sword.

Developing mrbms without outside help and with a destroyed industrial base requires more than a few smuggled 3d printers and aliexpress drone engines.

Assistance from eg US in development of mrbms would go against MTCR framework means Russia would be free to share their latest missile tech as well and I’m not sure American allies will appreciate North Korea, China, India or Iran obtaining Avangard class missiles.

Day 886 of Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine. At this rate of capture, it will only take 10 more years for Russia to control the entire Donbass region.

Massive cope.

NATO please send the next game changer to Ukraine to help this guy coping.

Putin has talked about how he considers all of Ukraine "to the east of the Dnieper" to historically belong to Russia during his various, verbose monologues. They also declared the corresponding oblasts annexed, even those which they barely control (Dnipropetrovsk oblast etc.)


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I think we're all in agreement that Russia doesn't want the Western provices of Ukraine. What they do strive for, imho, is for the Western Ukrainian rump state which remains after a negotiated peace to be a puppet state which is firmly aligned with Russia, similar to what they have in Belarus.



NATO violated Russia's request not to expand eastward, Russia violated the security guarantees it had given to Ukraine in exchange for UA's nukes in the Budapest memorandum. *shrug*



Well, it's kinda difficult to tell how much harder Russia could go if they wanted to. They're clearly not going all out, total-war style, right now because they prioritize keeping their own society and economy stable, but I couldn't really tell how close to 100% they currently are. But I would caution that the potential risks for Russia do grow substantially the longer this war drags on. There could be a change in leadership in the US or Europe which really ramps up arms supplies to Ukraine. Or the Chinese, who aren't doing too hot atm, could tumble into a proper recession and lose the appetite for propping up Russia economically and diplomatically. Or there's suddenly a bigger war in the Middle East and Iran needs all its drones there.


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Many of the costs of this war (break with the West, stop of the gas trade, having to ship their oil for longer distances, moving parts of their industry to arms production) are already baked in though. Imho, at this point, Russia would be wise to really go for it and settle this conflict in its favor once and for all while it can. That is, IF they indeed have as much of an upper hand as you guys think.


This is essentially just a different iteration of the same debate: if Ukraine decreases its demands in the current situation, with their front lines under immense pressure, that's a big signal of weakness. There's basically two differernt philosophies about how Russia would react to such a display of weakness. Would they go "alright, we're kinda tired of this war too, make us a decent offer and let's get this over with", or would they go "you're slipping and only weeks away from total collapse, we can achieve all our goals on the battlefield, so either voluntarily match ALL our demands or gtfo".

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 29 2024 05:26pm

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_annexation_of_Donetsk,_Kherson,_Luhansk_and_Zaporizhzhia_oblasts



They never annexed any other oblasts. That's a fact.


That said it cannot be denied they're in a far better position to drop further demands than they were in 2022 when the overstretched and exposed Russian forces were routed by the Ukrainians who'd volunteered in large numbers.

Like I said before, should've taken that peace deal back in 2022 eh Boris