Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 26 2024 09:03pm)

Afghanistan, Georgia, Ukraine (2014). The Second Chechen War began at a time of not-high-yet, but dramatically rising oil prices which were only stopped by the dotcom bubble bursting. The Russian involvement in the Central African Civil War also began in 2018 at a time of spiking oil prices, as did their operations in Mali.



I didn't say that he is wrong, just that it is VERY in character for the French guy to suggest waving the white flag. :lol:

Regarding the "autonomy"-angle: Germany's military is in a pitiful state and the country is aging, with no room to muster up a huge troop strength. At the same time, Germany is a trade nation, a densely populated country without many natural resources which is affluent nonetheless. The point I'm trying to convey is the following: Germany's wealth hinges on global trade, but the country lacks the power to keep global trading or shipping routes open. Hence, Germany benefits more than most other countries from the "Pax Americana". Germany needs a stable world order to thrive and there are only two countries which can provide it: the US or China.

So while I welcome an autonomous Germany which is thinking and acting for itself and tries to triangulate between the two superpowers - for example by refusing to join the Iraq War, or by continuing to trade oil and gas with Russia as soon as possible - I am under no illusions that Germany needs to pick a side when things come down to the wire, and that it is better served being on the side of the US-led Western bloc as opposed to the China-Russia bloc.

Quote (ofthevoid @ 26 Jul 2024 21:57)

Imagine an alternate universe, one in which Germany, France tell the US behind closed doors that they do not support a coup and infringing on Russia's sphere in Ukraine circa 2013 because it doesn't benefit them economically and destabilizes the region and in no way would support arming/funding Ukraine for a future war. Fast forward to today, Russia is still selling cheap gas powering German industry. No millions of refugees from Ukraine ending up on German social safety net system, reliably gas pipelines via nordstream. But i guess look at the positives... they "diversified" their energy sources (by paying more from farther places) and stopped Russia in their tracks from reaching Lisbon amiright?

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 26 2024 09:03pm)

Afghanistan, Georgia, Ukraine (2014). The Second Chechen War began at a time of not-high-yet, but dramatically rising oil prices which were only stopped by the dotcom bubble bursting. The Russian involvement in the Central African Civil War also began in 2018 at a time of spiking oil prices, as did their operations in Mali.



I didn't say that he is wrong, just that it is VERY in character for the French guy to suggest waving the white flag. :lol:

Regarding the "autonomy"-angle: Germany's military is in a pitiful state and the country is aging, with no room to muster up a huge troop strength. At the same time, Germany is a trade nation, a densely populated country without many natural resources which is affluent nonetheless. The point I'm trying to convey is the following: Germany's wealth hinges on global trade, but the country lacks the power to keep global trading or shipping routes open. Hence, Germany benefits more than most other countries from the "Pax Americana". Germany needs a stable world order to thrive and there are only two countries which can provide it: the US or China.

So while I welcome an autonomous Germany which is thinking and acting for itself and tries to triangulate between the two superpowers - for example by refusing to join the Iraq War, or by continuing to trade oil and gas with Russia as soon as possible - I am under no illusions that Germany needs to pick a side when things come down to the wire, and that it is better served being on the side of the US-led Western bloc as opposed to the China-Russia bloc.

Quote (zorzin @ 29 Jul 2024 00:28)

Ukrainian drone hit Tu-22M3 bomber at Olenya airfield, intel report claims
There are no information by now indicating from where the drone that hit Olenya was launched. If take-off from within Ukraine, the autopiloted flight has crossed 1,800 kilometers of central Russia. Another option could be that the drone was launched from somewhere inside Russia.
Russia’s strategic air forces last spring relocated more than 10 Tu-95MS and Tu-160 long-range bombers to Olenya. The move came after Engels Air Base in Saratov region was hit by Ukrainian drones.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2024/07/ukrainian-drone-hit-bomber-olenya-airfield

1. Destroying (if true) a tu22 with a drone is insane( and an actual relevant loss to the Russian Air Force.)
2. For some reason I don't think that drone went 1800+ km.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 28 2024 06:19pm)

If Ukraine had the capability to strike Russian bombers and jets 1800km inside Russian territory, they should have launched a massive surprise attack to take out as many of them in one fell swoop as possible, before Russia can ramp up the air defense around their inland airfields.

Russia finally being able to get its superior air force into play via glide bombs is the primary reason why the tides of this war have turned in their favor in recent months. In terms of artillery shells and such, Ukraine seems to have stabilized since the US supplies were unfrozen. What's killing them are the glide bombs, to which they haven't found an answer yet. If they could take out a sizable chunk of Russia's air fleet while they're on the ground, that would be a significant strategic gain for them.

So since me, an armchair wannabe pundit from a foreign country can put this together, I'm sure that Ukraine's high command would have noticed the same idea: that the element of surprise on such an attack should be maximized. Since that didn't happen and it seems to have been a single drone hit on a single bomber, this suggests that the drone came from Ukrainian agents inside Russia.

Quote (PapaPsych @ Jul 28 2024 08:19pm)

There are no tides to turn in this war, and in any modern warfare going forward its going to be 24/7 surveillance of the entire conflict line.
Russians have just been sitting back and camping Ukrainian spawns since fall of 2022.

Quote (ofthevoid @ Jul 28 2024 07:55pm)

Yep

The war is actually winding down. Slowly but surely. Ukraine needs tens of billions monthly to maintain a semi capable defensive position. In April the US gave them ~60bn and not even 3 months later another 2.3Bn in weapons is being announced. This is pretty telling about the astronomical burn rate, why would we be announcing another 2.3bn literally 2 months from when they got 60bn? They probably need somewhere in the vicinity of $100-150bn annually to maintain this war. But that's just one side of the coin. The other is men-wise, they really don't have the people to continue at this pace for the next 5 years. I was listening to a podcast and this geopolitics expert is predicting some peace deal most likely being proposed in the next number of months, seeing some chatter (unconfirmed though) that Zelensky is already more amenable to a peace deal and he's already publicly said that this war will end with some sort of peace deal not through military means. If Trump wins, i think what happens is he will try to hand off the torch to the Euros to provide the lions share of the funding, of course they'll say no, and this war probably winds down. It's just kind of pointless at this point, Ukraine does not have the capabilities even with western aid to push the Russians back, Zelensky will be forced to give concessions and that's prob how it all ends. Basically took the scenic bloody route of what we new would happen on day 1.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-set-announce-over-23-bln-weapons-package-ukraine-pentagon-2024-07-02/