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Jul 25 2024 03:35pm
Quote (Malopox @ 25 Jul 2024 11:15)
Big piece in Berliner Zeitung by Emmanuel Todd arguing that it is up to Germany to stand up for itself like it did in 2003 with Iraq and facilitate the end to this war:

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/geopolitik/emmanuel-todd-deutschland-wird-entscheiden-ob-in-der-ukraine-frieden-einkehrt-li.2236539


"French guy proposes waving the white flag, more news at 12"


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Jul 25 2024 04:16pm
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Jul 25 2024 02:06pm)
"Russian military crushes car with driver in Belgorod region with tank for the second time in a month"

https://www.moscowtimes.eu/2024/07/25/rossiiskie-voennie-vtoroi-raz-zamesyats-razdavili-tankom-avtomobil-svoditelem-belgorodskoi-oblasti-a137754


According to sources, the Niva was moving along the main road when a tank, which should have given way in accordance with the rules, drove out from around the turn onto it.

If you only knew how many times we did this to the Iraqis. Crushing cars with tanks is an Uncle Sam tradition.
And this author is very silly because tanks obviously have the right of way(lol). Now, if the tank crew intentionally did this with the intent to kill, then this is noteworthy. Is there a video?
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Jul 25 2024 04:17pm
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Jul 25 2024 08:06pm)
"Russian military crushes car with driver in Belgorod region with tank for the second time in a month"

https://www.moscowtimes.eu/2024/07/25/rossiiskie-voennie-vtoroi-raz-zamesyats-razdavili-tankom-avtomobil-svoditelem-belgorodskoi-oblasti-a137754


[/VIDEO]
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Jul 25 2024 04:18pm
https://x.com/aussiecossack/status/1816515142563295377

"President Zelensky called me, and we had a good conversation. I said that we need to end this war. This (the Russian army) is a military machine. You are facing a military machine. This is what they do – they wage wars. They defeated Hitler. They defeated Napoleon. And the spring offensive never happened. I said that the Russians have millions of mines and thousands of tanks. I said that we need to end this war. Many Russians have been killed, but many Ukrainians have been killed. It's a complete mess. This should never have happened,"

"Biden shouldn't have let this happen. It was easy to stop. President Putin would never have done this, never, for two reasons. Number one – oil prices were low when I was in office. I kept them low. I kept gas prices low. As soon as the new administration came in, oil went up to nearly $100 per barrel, which is twice what it should be, and suddenly Russia had huge sums of money that they didn't have before. And also, I think one of the reasons Putin went for it is because he saw Afghanistan, how we left it. Putin saw that, Chinese President Xi saw that, strong guys, strong people,"
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Jul 25 2024 04:31pm
Quote (Goomshill @ 26 Jul 2024 00:18)
https://x.com/aussiecossack/status/1816515142563295377

"President Zelensky called me, and we had a good conversation. I said that we need to end this war. This (the Russian army) is a military machine. You are facing a military machine. This is what they do – they wage wars. They defeated Hitler. They defeated Napoleon. And the spring offensive never happened. I said that the Russians have millions of mines and thousands of tanks. I said that we need to end this war. Many Russians have been killed, but many Ukrainians have been killed. It's a complete mess. This should never have happened,"

"Biden shouldn't have let this happen. It was easy to stop. President Putin would never have done this, never, for two reasons. Number one – oil prices were low when I was in office. I kept them low. I kept gas prices low. As soon as the new administration came in, oil went up to nearly $100 per barrel, which is twice what it should be, and suddenly Russia had huge sums of money that they didn't have before. And also, I think one of the reasons Putin went for it is because he saw Afghanistan, how we left it. Putin saw that, Chinese President Xi saw that, strong guys, strong people,"

By noting the historical correlation between high oil prices and Russia invading other countries, Trump just displayed more political intelligence and sharpness than DC's entire FP establishment taken together.
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Jul 25 2024 10:44pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 26 Jul 2024 00:31)
By noting the historical correlation between high oil prices and Russia invading other countries, Trump just displayed more political intelligence and sharpness than DC's entire FP establishment taken together.


Which other countries?

Quote (Black XistenZ @ 25 Jul 2024 23:35)
"French guy proposes waving the white flag, more news at 12"


Is he wrong though. He argues for more autonomous Germany. At the moment Germany is essentially a protectorate unable to conduct its own foreign policy.
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Jul 26 2024 08:43am
Possible Trump Ukraine plan: half a trillion dollars and NATO membership
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and a past Trump advisor published an article in the Wall Street Journal outlining what "might be" the Republican candidate's plan if elected. Israel is also briefly mentioned.

Create a $500 billion "lend-lease" program for Ukraine. Instead of saddling U.S. taxpayers with more bills, let Ukraine borrow as much as it needs to buy American weapons to defeat Russia. This is how we helped Britain in World War II before Pearl Harbor. It's how we can send a clear signal to Mr. Putin that he will never win.
https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/07/26/possible-trump-plan-for-ukraine-half-a-trillion-dollars-and-nato-membership/
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Jul 26 2024 01:03pm
Quote (Malopox @ 26 Jul 2024 06:44)
Which other countries?

Afghanistan, Georgia, Ukraine (2014). The Second Chechen War began at a time of not-high-yet, but dramatically rising oil prices which were only stopped by the dotcom bubble bursting. The Russian involvement in the Central African Civil War also began in 2018 at a time of spiking oil prices, as did their operations in Mali.


Quote
Is he wrong though. He argues for more autonomous Germany. At the moment Germany is essentially a protectorate unable to conduct its own foreign policy.

I didn't say that he is wrong, just that it is VERY in character for the French guy to suggest waving the white flag. :lol:

Regarding the "autonomy"-angle: Germany's military is in a pitiful state and the country is aging, with no room to muster up a huge troop strength. At the same time, Germany is a trade nation, a densely populated country without many natural resources which is affluent nonetheless. The point I'm trying to convey is the following: Germany's wealth hinges on global trade, but the country lacks the power to keep global trading or shipping routes open. Hence, Germany benefits more than most other countries from the "Pax Americana". Germany needs a stable world order to thrive and there are only two countries which can provide it: the US or China.

So while I welcome an autonomous Germany which is thinking and acting for itself and tries to triangulate between the two superpowers - for example by refusing to join the Iraq War, or by continuing to trade oil and gas with Russia as soon as possible - I am under no illusions that Germany needs to pick a side when things come down to the wire, and that it is better served being on the side of the US-led Western bloc as opposed to the China-Russia bloc.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 26 2024 01:04pm
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Jul 26 2024 01:29pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 26 Jul 2024 21:03)
Afghanistan, Georgia, Ukraine (2014). The Second Chechen War began at a time of not-high-yet, but dramatically rising oil prices which were only stopped by the dotcom bubble bursting. The Russian involvement in the Central African Civil War also began in 2018 at a time of spiking oil prices, as did their operations in Mali.


Afghanistan wasn't Russia - that was United States in 2000s or USSR in 1980s, you get to choose. Happy to debate whether those were poor choices or not and their historical significance.

Georgia War was not started by Russia. Russia did overreact and had a swift and decisive show of force which ended the conflict there and then. Its quite well researched and plenty of independent sources and even a whole EU Factfinding report was made into the causes of that war https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/new-report-on-russia-georgia-war-eu-investigators-debunk-saakashvili-s-lies-a-652512.html

Chechen Wars were Russian internal secession struggle. Again, not really started by Russia, but rather by separatists that wanted to secede and ETHNICALLY CLEANSED the region. Second Chechen War was literally started by wahhabi islamists (remember Shamil Basayev? May he rot in hell) who broke peace treaty by attacking Russia which provoked a response that settled this conflict once and for all.

African involvement can hardly be described as "Russia War" as from what I understand Russian military was never officially deployed and whatever PMC groups are doing cannot be attributed to Russia directly as they have no operational oversight.

Quote
I didn't say that he is wrong, just that it is VERY in character for the French guy to suggest waving the white flag. :lol:

Regarding the "autonomy"-angle: Germany's military is in a pitiful state and the country is aging, with no room to muster up a huge troop strength. At the same time, Germany is a trade nation, a densely populated country without many natural resources which is affluent nonetheless. The point I'm trying to convey is the following: Germany's wealth hinges on global trade, but the country lacks the power to keep global trading or shipping routes open. Hence, Germany benefits more than most other countries from the "Pax Americana". Germany needs a stable world order to thrive and there are only two countries which can provide it: the US or China.

So while I welcome an autonomous Germany which is thinking and acting for itself and tries to triangulate between the two superpowers - for example by refusing to join the Iraq War, or by continuing to trade oil and gas with Russia as soon as possible - I am under no illusions that Germany needs to pick a side when things come down to the wire, and that it is better served being on the side of the US-led Western bloc as opposed to the China-Russia bloc.


Germany was forced to make a choice after comfortably sitting on two chairs for good 70 years and benefiting from cheap resources as well as trade with the whole world. A choice not forced by Russia, but rather Germany's "ally". For instance companies like Mabanaft GbmH or SoyuzNefteExport had no problems importing Soviet oil and fuel into WEST Germany in 1960-1990s even during the heights of Cold War. Germany should follow its own interests and lead European Council to protect European interests, just like India, China, US or Russia does instead of "falling in line" at the expense of its own interests and wellbeing of its citizens. Instead we have Von Der Leyen - arguably the most hated politician in the world (after Putin).

And then there is the humiliation of Nord Stream sabotage where everyone knows it was most probably Ukranians aided by US, but its politically difficult to lay the blame and pursue perpetrators in 2024. Maybe they will get justice in 2025? 2026? Never? German Greens that forced Germany to close best in class Nuclear Plants are surprisingly disinterested in the biggest single emission of greenhouse gas in the history of modern civilization.

This post was edited by Malopox on Jul 26 2024 01:41pm
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Jul 26 2024 01:57pm
Quote (Malopox @ Jul 26 2024 03:29pm)



Germany was forced to make a choice after comfortably sitting on two chairs for good 70 years and benefiting from cheap resources as well as trade with the whole world. A choice not forced by Russia, but rather Germany's "ally". For instance companies like Mabanaft GbmH or SoyuzNefteExport had no problems importing Soviet oil and fuel into WEST Germany in 1960-1990s even during the heights of Cold War. Germany should follow its own interests and lead European Council to protect European interests, just like India, China, US or Russia does instead of "falling in line" at the expense of its own interests and wellbeing of its citizens. Instead we have Von Der Leyen - arguably the most hated politician in the world (after Putin).

And then there is the humiliation of Nord Stream sabotage where everyone knows it was most probably Ukranians aided by US, but its politically difficult to lay the blame and pursue perpetrators in 2024. Maybe they will get justice in 2025? 2026?


Imagine an alternate universe, one in which Germany, France tell the US behind closed doors that they do not support a coup and infringing on Russia's sphere in Ukraine circa 2013 because it doesn't benefit them economically and destabilizes the region and in no way would support arming/funding Ukraine for a future war. Fast forward to today, Russia is still selling cheap gas powering German industry. No millions of refugees from Ukraine ending up on German social safety net system, reliably gas pipelines via nordstream. But i guess look at the positives... they "diversified" their energy sources (by paying more from farther places) and stopped Russia in their tracks from reaching Lisbon amiright?

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