Lets put the huge gains in perspective shall we.
https://www.russiamatters.org/news/russia-ukraine-war-report-card/russia-ukraine-war-report-card-may-7-2024Change in control of Ukrainian territory
Since Feb. 24, 2022:
Russia: +25,000 square miles. 11% of Ukraine. Area equivalent to Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Connecticut combined.
Ukraine: 0. Ukraine has not taken any territory controlled by Russia before the 2022 invasion.
Since Aug. 29, 2022 Ukrainian counteroffensive: Ukraine +6,550 square miles. 3% of Ukraine. Area equivalent to Connecticut and Rhode Island combined.
Russia: +480.
Ukraine: +7,030.
In past month: Russia +55 square miles.Russia: +61.
Ukraine: +6.
In past week: Russia +20 square miles.
Russia: +21.
Ukraine: +1.
Total territory occupied by Russia at some point since Feb. 24, 2022: 54,000 square miles.
Total territory reclaimed by Ukraine since Feb. 24, 2022: 29,000.
54% of total territory occupied by Russia.
Currently occupied by Russia: 25,000.Russia has gained 55 square miles in the past month. The Donbass is 20,000 square miles. Lets estimate Russia controls 70% of the region already. Thats 14,000 square miles.
So 6,000 square miles remain outwith Russian control. Based on an average 100 miles per month, which is double what Russia is currently capable of.
That means it would only take another 60 months for Russia to control the entire Donbas region. That is five years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine"During the entire 2023, the Russian forces only captured 518 km2 (200 sq mi) of Ukrainian territory, despite huge losses on the battlefield"
200 square miles in the whole of 2023. Our previous calculation was based off Russia being able to capture and hold 100 miles per month.
At 200 square miles a year, Russia could capture all of the Donbas region in about... 30 years.
This doesn't include Kherson or the Western parts of Zaporizhzhia.