Quote (Saucisson6000 @ 27 Jul 2021 00:59)
This article gives no numbers on the rate of covid infections which end with long covid whatsoever, nor does it give any estimate about which share of patients with long covid will be permanently impaired.
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The group's latest projections combine 10 mathematical models from various academic teams to create an "ensemble" projection. It offers four scenarios for its projections — varying based on what percent of the population gets vaccinated and how quickly the delta variant spreads.
In the most likely scenario, Lessler says, the U.S. reaches only 70% vaccination among eligible Americans, and the delta variant is 60% more transmissible.
This is fear-mongering bullcrap. From May to late June, British data has consistently downgraded the estimates of how much more transmissible Delta is compared with the previously dominant Alpha strain. Their latest estimates showed Delta having a 35-40% transmission advantage, not 60%. Since this number affects the base of the exponential growth curve, this overestimation by 20-25% makes a HUGE difference for all models and projections which are built on it.
See here, the last column of table 5:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001354/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdfSecondary attack rate among contacts of cases who have not travelled:
Alpha: 7.9%
Delta: 10.7%
10.7/7.9 = 1.3544 = ~35% higher infectiousness.
In the previous reports (PHE technical briefing 16 or 15), these same numbers indicated Delta to be 60% more transmissible, which is where this number of 60% had come from which the media picked up and stuck by to this date. I can forgive journalists for not keeping up with this kind of stuff, but when a research consortium which is consulting the CDC commits such a crucial error, that's either embarrassing or part of a deliberate agenda. They took a worst case scenario and try to sell it to the public as a median scenario.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 26 2021 05:32pm