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Jul 26 2021 05:23pm
Quote (IceMage @ Jul 26 2021 06:17pm)
The Cold War is over brah... capitalism(and small "L" liberalism) won.


Dude were far right compared to the entire rest of the world. Most of Bernies polices are common sense in the rest of the world. Oh no national healthcare! How terrible!

Left of liberal is social democracy, then socialism, then probably communism.

We are way to the right under neoconservatism. We would have to go several steps to the left before either party wouldn't be considered far right in Europe
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Jul 26 2021 05:31pm
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ 27 Jul 2021 00:59)

This article gives no numbers on the rate of covid infections which end with long covid whatsoever, nor does it give any estimate about which share of patients with long covid will be permanently impaired.


Quote

Quote
The group's latest projections combine 10 mathematical models from various academic teams to create an "ensemble" projection. It offers four scenarios for its projections — varying based on what percent of the population gets vaccinated and how quickly the delta variant spreads.

In the most likely scenario, Lessler says, the U.S. reaches only 70% vaccination among eligible Americans, and the delta variant is 60% more transmissible.


This is fear-mongering bullcrap. From May to late June, British data has consistently downgraded the estimates of how much more transmissible Delta is compared with the previously dominant Alpha strain. Their latest estimates showed Delta having a 35-40% transmission advantage, not 60%. Since this number affects the base of the exponential growth curve, this overestimation by 20-25% makes a HUGE difference for all models and projections which are built on it.

See here, the last column of table 5:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001354/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf
Secondary attack rate among contacts of cases who have not travelled:
Alpha: 7.9%
Delta: 10.7%

10.7/7.9 = 1.3544 = ~35% higher infectiousness.



In the previous reports (PHE technical briefing 16 or 15), these same numbers indicated Delta to be 60% more transmissible, which is where this number of 60% had come from which the media picked up and stuck by to this date. I can forgive journalists for not keeping up with this kind of stuff, but when a research consortium which is consulting the CDC commits such a crucial error, that's either embarrassing or part of a deliberate agenda. They took a worst case scenario and try to sell it to the public as a median scenario.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 26 2021 05:32pm
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Jul 26 2021 08:27pm
Quote (IceMage @ Jul 26 2021 07:11pm)
The Republican party has more in common with leftists than it does with small government conservatives or libertarians. They support a massive federal government that has it's hand in all aspects of the lives of Americans, which includes a sizable welfare state that keeps expanding, and has never been paid for.



I'm not even sure what liberal(as in "left" liberal, not "political science term" liberal) means. It was always a term that described those on the left side of the spectrum.

Obviously notions of left and right depend on the country you are in, so a conservative in a democratic-socialist country would be far more left-wing than a conservative in America.

How about you guys put your cards on the table... what makes someone on the right or on the left? Because Bernie doesn't want to nationalize a bunch of industries and supplant the market system, he's barely on the left? Sounds like a leftist framing.


In a broad sense
Liberals support policy that protects or expands individual rights slowly within the framework of capitalism. They support a limited social safety net that is just large enough to keep people from rioting. They do not support socialism or communism, and in fact actively work against the left within the US and abroad.

Every election cycle the Democratic Party moves farther right to pander to the imaginary “centrist” voter base. Then conservative media paints them as leftists to further obscure the reality that anything could be farther left than the racist bootlicker that put millions in prison and used drones to bomb weddings.
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Jul 26 2021 08:47pm
Quote (IceMage @ Jul 26 2021 07:21pm)


The vast majority of people who die from covid are either old or have a preexisting condition. Doctors aren't lying about that, because we're obviously getting the data.

I don't know why we have to respond to people lying about the severity of a disease by pretending it's the second coming of the black death.
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Jul 26 2021 08:57pm
Quote (bogie160 @ Jul 26 2021 09:47pm)
The vast majority of people who die from covid are either old or have a preexisting condition. Doctors aren't lying about that, because we're obviously getting the data.

I don't know why we have to respond to people lying about the severity of a disease by pretending it's the second coming of the black death.


I think you underestimate how much of the population has a "preexisting condition". Hint: It's basically everybody, depending on how you define it.

This post was edited by NetflixAdaptationWidow on Jul 26 2021 08:57pm
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Jul 26 2021 09:12pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ Jul 26 2021 10:57pm)
I think you underestimate how much of the population has a "preexisting condition". Hint: It's basically everybody, depending on how you define it.


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7518649/

https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-020-00785-1

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105431/covid-case-fatality-rates-us-by-age-group/

It is exceedingly unlikely that you are going to die from covid under a certain age. It corresponds to serious preconditions that tend to accompany age. We ought to treat covid seriously because its a serious disease. That doesn't mean we have a carte blanche to lie about the risks associated with the disease.
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Jul 26 2021 09:16pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ 27 Jul 2021 04:57)
I think you underestimate how much of the population has a "preexisting condition". Hint: It's basically everybody, depending on how you define it.


Not every condition which qualifies as "preexisting condition" in a general medical or insurance sense is actually relevant for covid. Hypertension or a BMI of 30.1 do not mean that your covid risk is suddenly ten times higher than that of an otherwise similar person. Stuff like lung cancer or leukemia does.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 26 2021 09:17pm
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Jul 26 2021 09:35pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 26 2021 10:16pm)
Not every condition which qualifies as "preexisting condition" in a general medical or insurance sense is actually relevant for covid. Hypertension or a BMI of 30.1 do not mean that your covid risk is suddenly ten times higher than that of an otherwise similar person. Stuff like lung cancer or leukemia does.


Sure, but the number one risk factor is.... age.

Not really something we consider to be a serious illness like lung cancer or leukemia.

In the case of Covid, "being older than 40" would count as a serious condition.

So unless you differentiate "preexisting condition" it's really worthless to say "most Covid deaths involve an underlying preexisting condition".

Quote (bogie160 @ Jul 26 2021 10:12pm)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7518649/
https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-020-00785-1
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105431/covid-case-fatality-rates-us-by-age-group/
It is exceedingly unlikely that you are going to die from covid under a certain age. It corresponds to serious preconditions that tend to accompany age. We ought to treat covid seriously because its a serious disease. That doesn't mean we have a carte blanche to lie about the risks associated with the disease.


That also doesn't mean you get to be vague to minimize the risks. You're doing the same thing in reverse by saying "preexisting condition". Since being middle aged would count as a major risk factor as per your own sources.

This post was edited by NetflixAdaptationWidow on Jul 26 2021 09:37pm
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Jul 26 2021 10:39pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ Jul 26 2021 11:35pm)

That also doesn't mean you get to be vague to minimize the risks. You're doing the same thing in reverse by saying "preexisting condition". Since being middle aged would count as a major risk factor as per your own sources.


I said "preexisting condition" or "age". We can't lie about the severity of a disease and then get upset when people stop listening to our lies. It is part our fault for messaging so poorly.
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Jul 26 2021 11:17pm
Quote (bogie160 @ Jul 26 2021 11:39pm)
I said "preexisting condition" or "age". We can't lie about the severity of a disease and then get upset when people stop listening to our lies. It is part our fault for messaging so poorly.


I mean, the big risk has and remains the overwhelming of the healthcare system. As I said previously (or in another thread?) the hospitals and clinics I did all my medical work at are absolutely fucked right now, and mainly because they have some of the lowest vaccination rates in the country.

I don't buy that our messaging was particularly poor on this. We had a president minimizing the risks and encouraging his party to do the same. The messaging could have been pitch perfect and it wouldn't have made much of a difference with the literal president actively undermining his own medical staff.
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