Quote (ofthevoid @ 1 Jul 2024 16:32)
The loss figures will most likely be a state secret IMO. Incumbent party would never want those numbers to be released.
For every one person in Ukraine that goes to war, there's probably 10 leaving the country at the same time. I keep saying this, I live in a medium sized US city and go to a Slavic church sometimes. Literally every other week they announce a new family that came from Ukraine and wants to join the church. I have family members that are truckers/live in other states and they say it's literally like this all across the US, NY, Carolinas, Portland, California, everywhere. The bigger problem for Ukraine is, the longer this war goes on, the higher the probability that most of these people never come back. Once you get your kids into schools you get jobs, a home, car, etc. people settle. Why would a Ukrainian family living in the cushy west go back to the hardship of a bombed out and impoverished country that will struggle economically probably for a decade after this? What's the incentive?
So then the human capital is depleted severely. The country's young, able & educated is being depleted at alarming rates. Even if lets say Ukraine's losses on the battlefield end up being 1million, the real problem would be you lost 1/3 of your population (upwards of 15 million), with kids, elderly and other dependents now making up a much bigger pie of the population. Who's your tax base?
This happened already with the Balkans. Folks from Albania, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia that left in the 1990s never returned.
When I was in New York last summer we had a great dinner at a steakhouse downtown that is run by two Albanian brothers. If immigrants succeed in the west they will never return back to their bombed out shitholes. The west never rebuilt eg Serbia or Albania once they’ve “liberated” them from whoever was the bad guy back then.
I think Ukraine is toast whichever way this goes.
If Russia wins - the rump state of Bandera has nothing to sell to Europe except their pretty women. There was never any industry in the east and majority of agri / natural resources are in the west of Ukraine which are being taken away village by village as we speak.
If Russia loses - Ukraine ends up right in the middle of another Balkan war that can go on for decades with no end in sight.