That's not how you do analysis dawg, that's called cherry picking. Secondly, when one subset or sample is soo high you should ask yourself why? The reason is pretty obvious, at least to me. It's because reported cases are only a fraction of total cases. So in reality a fuck ton of people simply not reporting that they have/had Covid, probably because their symptoms were so mild. That's like judging Covid death rate after Cuomo decided to stick Covid patients in nursing homes and looking at NY/NJ only.

It's also important to note that the overall averaged death rate is also a poor indicator of death rate today simply because early on we really knew very little about Covid, how to treat it, etc. Obviously death rate from a year ago is going to be higher versus today which would be pulling that average up from what it actually is now.

Most accurate would be basically look at the death starting in the last 2-3 months and average it to now for accuracy.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jul 26 2021 01:57pm

cootie was here in the USA as early as december and nobody said anything, that is how noticeable it is with out a butload of tax takers shaking fingers at everything and screeching

This post was edited by TiStuff on Jul 26 2021 02:09pm

So in my mind there isn't a way to accurately gauge unreported cases. Saying you survived COVID because you live in Antarctica and were never exposed doesn't count in my opinion. Known cases to death is the only metric that make sense to me.
Now to your point of getting better at treating it, yes we clearly are those JHU stats are up to date. They also don't take into account damaged done by. I think it pretty universal that its more severe than everyone is fine except the 90 year old with diabetes/fat/smoker eating spam. I don't know where to get death rates from starting 2-3 months ago. Would be interesting for sure.

This post was edited by theCrossbones on Jul 26 2021 02:21pm

First, the extent to which infections are detected depends massively on the country in question, how much testing it does, how many people even have access to healthcare and so on. The factor by which actual numbers exceed official numbers will be a lot higher in places like Mexico or India than in places like the U.S. or France.

Second, it is absolutely reasonable to assume that - in each country - the dark figure of covid deaths (that is, the number of covid deaths which are not detected as such) will be smaller than the dark figure of covid cases (since a lot of infections are asymptomatic). Hence, it is also reasonable to assume that the Case Fatality Rate (CFR, share of detected cases that are detected as having died from the disease) is higher than the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR, share of all infected persons (which we dont know) who died from the disease).

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 26 2021 02:28pm

I agree, I keep talking about CFR not IFR. I don't know that IFR accounts for the true severity of having COVID.
My point of cherry picking MEX, is clearly the disease itself kills more than 1%

4.16m deaths worldwide out of 194m reported cases per google

that's 2.1%

That's doesn't include people who had it but never reported it. I know a bunch of people that had it but very few actually went to the doctor or even reported it. Some people had it and didn't even know it because symptoms were so mild.

That 2.1% is the average since it's started. The advances in Covid treatment are night and day today versus March or April of last year. But the death rate from those months is averaged in, pulling that average up to 2.1%

When you take these two points in consideration, it's not a stretch to believe that the real current death rate is a small fraction of that 2.1%

As a side not, why is it so difficult to find current death rate? I didn't spend a ton of time but why the fuck do they force you to be Sherlock to figure out the Covid death rate as of like the last few months.

The WHO and the CDC estimated the IFR of covid to be well below 1% in first world countries, and that was before vaccines became available. Factoring in vaccinations, it should approach the flu-like level of around 0.1%.

It is of course the IFR which is the important quantity since it tells us how many covid deaths (and indirectly how many hospitalizations) we would have to expect if cases grow by a factor of X. It is the IFR that informs the most crucial and difficult political decisions.


In any case, it should be fairly undisputed that the CFR is an upper bound for the (unknown) IFR.

It's deeper than that: we should not forget to include the loss of life expectancy, productivity, damage done to the society, of covid long term side effects. Many people survive but are sick for a very long time.
Once again: the crippled ones are a real (bad) deal. Can your guys include this in your numbers ?

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Jul 26 2021 03:32pm

yes..

Please quantify "many" and "very long time".