Interested in substantive arguments opposing the graphic above.

The argument surmounts to a belief that Russia in entitled to a sphere of influence and that entitlement supersedes the national interests of other neighbouring countries, whilst also flying in the face of international law and convention.
Nothing is more important for a paranoid dictator than an outside evil force, to subvert the public displeasure of the autocracy and have them rally around the flag; All while the state coffers are pilfered.

There is no gauging how much the Arab spring and subsequent fall of several dictators, and also the toppling of Saddam in Iraq had on Putins thinking; But a shift away from co-operation with the West and a demonization of the US and its allies is clear.
As highlighted by Stephen Kotkin in his Lex Friedman podcast interviews.

The first thing to note is that we're talking history (facts) and it's complete clear and well documented.

The second thing to note is that the "above graphic" you posted is a pro-NATO meme and no more than that. Therefor it means nothing, only the facts matter. Thank you for showing us that you're not here to debate in good faith.

With that out of the way lets look at the facts


NATO and the USSR successfully negotiated in the late eighties / early nineties thanks to Reagan and Gorbachev https://www.history.com/news/gorbachev-reagan-cold-war

The USSR pulled out of Eastern Europe without a single shot fired (note that the Soviets had a huge army there)

Instead of further improving East - West relations, NATO prioritized expanding their sphere of influence, absorbing country after country and in 2008 officially welcomed Ukraine and Georgia (facts, let me know if you need links / map)




Completely disregards historical facts and instead mentions Lex Friedman podcasts LMAO

@bold: What a load of crap and outright lies the facts are that NATO has been expanding their sphere of influence moving East for decades at the cost of Russia. In 2008 NATO officially welcomed Ukraine and Georgia only after that shit hit the fan.

But you know that and you know I crush you with the facts every single time why do you keep trying, LOL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum 1994

1. Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders

Signatories
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Russia
United States
United Kingdom


=> extruded, reformatted, synchronized, flattened, erased, disintegrated, vaporized, crushed, assimilated.


The simple way:

Putin agressed Ukraine with his hordes of orcs because of the need for his circle of riche corrupt + a small part of the population to keep their unfair priviliedges instead of switching to Democracy.

- They would lose their market shares because of an effective competition
- They would lose their control of the political system / judiciary system
- Allied organized criminals would also lose alot of their position
- All those having a sloppy job/"business"/ anything based on the actual corrupted system don't want it
- And ofc all the ultra-nationalists idiots along with their ignorant grand-ma (aka "i want stability.meme.jpg" even if millions Ukrainians are massacred/deported/tortured)

Newly democratic neighborhood countries know this more than anyone (and still have issues regarding the points above)

The only solution is to eliminate the Russian regime, freedom for the russian people !

This post was edited by Meanwhile on Jun 23 2024 08:37am

Can you read the date on that link that you posted? --> 1994

=> extruded, reformatted, synchronized, flattened, erased, disintegrated, vaporized, crushed, assimilated.

etc etc

I'm kinda sceptical about this claim. Putin's behavior can just as well be explained as "he always wanted to restore the Russian empire, but the country came from such a deep hole at the end of the 90s that it took a long time before Russia was strong enough to again wage war in its sphere of influence."


Generally speaking, there is a historic correlation between high oil prices and Russia starting wars. High oil prices in the 70s -> invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. High oil prices in the mid-2000s -> invasion of Georgia in 2007. High and surging oil prices in the fall of 2021 -> invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

What happened in 2014 fits into this pattern. After shit went down in early 2014, the war in Ukraine got semi-frozen into a low-intensity slumber for 8 years. Now keep in mind that global oil prices collapsed in 2014 due to the North American shale oil and fracking boom taking off. A barrel of WTI traded for $110 in May 2014, $72 in Dec 2014 and $30 in Jan 2016. So even if Russia had wanted to build up its military for a larger-scale invasion of Ukraine back then, they simply didn't have the funding. It took until the summer of 2018 before oil prices had somewhat recovered to 80-ish dollars/barrel. Then, less than two years later, covid threw another wrench into whichever plans there might have been.

So my personal pet theory is that back in 2014, Russia wanted to pull the trigger on a full invasion as soon as possible, say in 2016 or so, but then they got delayed again and again.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 23 2024 10:34am

Are you kidding? You post Kremlin backed youtubers and think thats a credible source. But Stephen Kotkin a literal expert on Stalin and Russia is not a credible source?

You are out there kid, way out there.

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Jun 23 2024 01:49pm

Don't you see this is all part of Shoigus elaborate plan unfolding? He might be on gardening leave but soon we will see the final stage of his plan; Covering Russian recruits, fresh from their 3 months boot camp, completely in corrugated iron sheets.

The unstoppable communist soldiers will walk straight into the NATO/NAZI heartland and slay the dragon of freedom once and for all.

Spending half of ever day crying about fake "communism" in America
Spending the rest of that day defending actual Communist country as they invade other countries..
only MAGA and "all the best people" that are tired of so much winning they must donate weekly.