Quote (ofthevoid @ 11 Jun 2024 02:58)
There's no real way to know the true number of dead/MIA from our point of view sitting thousands of miles away. On both sides, these are closely guarded secrets because neither side would want to admit to massive losses as it's just bad PR/demoralizes active troops and scares recruits from wanting to join willingly, neither would the public be happy about massive losses.
If we were honest, we'd say we don't know and at best ball park it. The Russians probably lost more very early on in the war. The Russians lose more whenever they are pushing for positions because it's inherently more costly to attack as there's a general defenders advantage. The Ukrainians are objectively not as well armed and they themselves throughout this war have acknowledged of being severely outgunned, especially when it comes to artillery. It's also been acknowledged and echoed by experts that artillery deaths represent most deaths during this war. The other factor is, Russia is able to hit the rear and has been doing so at much higher rates vs Ukraine. All throughout this war Russia has regularly hit rear training camps/hotels/logistics points/weapons caches and so on. Only recently has Ukraine has started to hit the Russian rear with ATACMS that actually makes a difference, but again these strikes are not as numerous in quantity if compared to what Russia has been doing through out the war.
Ultimately as you say, the best indicator is the fact that Ukraine has to mobilize unwilling men on an ongoing basis, and we see videos of these forced mobilizations surfacing literally daily. Russia doesn't have to do this, for two reasons really, because they pay their soldiers an attractive wage (at least by Russian standards) and having a way higher pool of men that are actually living in Russia to draw from.
So if I had to guess, I think there's probably a slight advantage in Russia's favor in KIA count because I think artillery and air support is that much of a difference maker. Ukraine has a serious problem of population leakage that Russia really doesn't. They've lost 1/3 of their population, with large swaths of men either hiding or already left the country. Men that get the chance to go abroad never come back. I've met dozens of Ukrainians in my mid-size US city that came here in the last ~year or so, many men. Even if losses are 1:1 it's simply not a sustainable war for them. The people that keep making these incredulous Russian KIA claims are just wishing things to be true because they're so heavily invested. So when Russia is making gains on the actual front lines they cope with these made up numbers, as if it's some sort of consolation.
I'm pretty sure that Russia lost more not just very early on but for over a year, until after the battle of Bakhmut. Since then, losses are probably somewhere between even (as Ukraine has the defender's advantage despite being outgunned) or in favor of Russia.
The reasons why Russia has less issues finding fresh recruits are multifold. A larger pool to draw from, yes. But Russia is also a more authoritarian country, and more geographically isolated from "save havens". Chechnia, for example, is a full-blown police state. And large swaths of Russia are less developed. Iirc, before the war, the GDP/capita was roughly identical, but with more inequality on Russia's side. They have more millionaires and billionaires, but on the flip side, Russia has significantly more rural people living in dire, existential poverty with absolutely no perspective. Recruiting these types by offering them or their families just a few thousand bucks is easy. If Putin had to draw from the middle class in Moscow or St. Petersburg, I doubt that the outcome/resistance would be any different than what we're seeing in Ukraine.
At the end of the day, Russia is burning through irreplaceable resources, be it the rabble and undesirables they're throwing to the front lines or their Soviet-era stockpiles of weapons and ammunition. Russia can keep this war going for a lot longer, yes, but not at the current intensity. It's a race about which side will run out of steam quicker. Imho, the bigger problem for Ukraine right now is the destruction of its infrastructure and the erosion of its morale, not the lack of manpower.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 10 2024 08:09pm