A lot of their border are the carpathians, not exactly passable terrain. They can cross the Tisa to reach Romania, but bridges are patrolled and the river is fairly wide, or they can try to cross the mountains
There are all kinds of photos and videos and reports of men who either escaped via the treacherous crossings, or were caught, or died. Stands to reason there are no good options if they're trying to swim the Tisa, and the banks of the Tisa past the mountains are a natural choke point that can be mined by the border patrol.

But they also have endless, mostly flat borders with Moldova and Poland, plus a flat border with Romania to the very south at the Danube delta:


This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 9 2024 03:24pm

Moldova, Poland, Lithuania and Slovakia have all either been persecuted or deporting asylum seekers from Ukraine, some acting overtly as runaway slave catchers. Not all the same degree mind you- Slovakian guards have even shot at Ukrainians trying to cross over, arresting and imprisoning others. It really puts a perspective on this conflict when the west gave asylum to Eritreans trying to dodge mandatory conscription, but has been sending (some) Ukrainians back to the front lines by force. Romania on the other hand has been a safe haven, far more amenable to them- they need only find police / border guards and surrender immediately and get given a visa.

There's a reason they head for Romania, and that's the border UA patrols are purportedly mining to kill escapees.

Even if all of this is true, a look at the topographic map I just posted shows that there is also plenty of flat borders with Romania at the Danube delta (bottom of map) and also below Chernivtsi (left-middle of the map). Seems more favorable terrain than crossing the Carpathians where you're confined to valleys and bridges.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 9 2024 03:42pm

I don't know enough about the Odesa side, just that the reports all say folks are crossing either the Tisa or Carpathians, so you'd have to figure the reason. There are definitely checkpoints and patrols along the cities at the borders, and Gypsies have become the coyotes of the Romanian border with the rampant people smuggling. If you were in Ukraine and wanted to flee, is the Danube delta accessible? You'd have to pass through Odessa and nearer the front lines. I mean, I think most people who fled did so across the border checkpoints with bribes, smugglers or forged documents, but trying to swim a river I can't tell you if the danube delta wetlands are more or less passable than the carpathians. So if you can figure out the reason, eh, my googlefu won't reveal it, no results involving 'danube'

Upon closer inspection, there doesn't seem to be any bridges across the Danube in its delta region, and swimming across main stream of such a big river is probably not possible.
There is a big and flat gap to the east of the Carpathian arc though:

The left circle is the gap around the Titsa river, the right is the gap near Chernivtsi:


Zoomed in:


The area I marked in the second pic is flat terrain without a river; it's also very far away from the front lines and shouldn't have military presence.
And yes, my paint skillz are absolutely superb! XD

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 9 2024 06:16pm

Is this what victory for Russia was meant to look like?

The 500k are UK MOD figures, dead and wounded. Likely conservative to anyone who is watching the war unfold. Your welcome to post your own figures to dispute them.

But don't be cowardly and comment on my post without quoting me, coward.

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Jun 10 2024 02:56pm

UK MOD figures are garbage, just like their continually biased assessment of this war which you parrot uncritically. Just like ISW is garbage, and pretty much most western sources. Russians have the same type of propaganda but last I checked no one in here is saying Ukraine is losing 10:1 people seriously. They are basically copy/pastes of Ukrainian MOD figures, because they aren't impartial honest observers of this war but have vested interests.

I mean you're dumb enough to quote Russian losses that seemingly go up by 100k every two months, which come from the same sources that say Ukraine has lost 31k soldiers total. Do me a favor and post UK MOD figures of Ukrainian losses then try to critically reconcile the two numbers.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jun 10 2024 03:07pm

You're asking me if Ukrainians fleeing en masse to other western countries and border guards resorting to killing their own men to try to stop them from escaping is what Russia's victory looks like?
I mean, yeah that seems like one visible step in it