Quote (Goomshill @ May 27 2024 11:30am)
So as far as trying to predict the future goes
It looks like the NATO response to Russia shifting the balance towards winning in Ukraine is escalating to attacks on the Russian mainland, and we've already seen the pretty significant attack on Russian nuclear early warning radar systems
The question becomes, does Russia just try to shrug it off while winning in Ukraine anyway, or do they respond with their trademark reciprocal escalation, and if so, what will that look like? They've threatened attacks on UK targets inside and outside of Ukraine in response to UK attacks on the Russian mainland, but I don't see them bombing london any time soon.
if I'm trying to guess what Russia could do within its current powers, with minimal chance of failure and embarrassment (ie not having cruise missiles get shot down before reaching a target) and without escalating to full ww3 (ie not having ICBMs drop on nato and trigger MAD), and still try to keep it proportional to the targeting of early warning radar systems.... I'm almost guessing Russia will use an anti-satellite weapon to strike western satellites in the near future. It could give Putin his own sputnik moment, let him claim his attack killed nobody and still frame it as a legitimate military target in the Ukraine war. But this is all just a wild guess
The UK has a critical airbase in Cyprus. Russia has a naval base in Syria.
That is the only version of some kind of direct attack I can foresee; In terms of a direct attack against military targets.
Aside from that underwater infrastructure. But then again, as always that is just more of the same from Russia; Whether its sabotage of espionage surmounting to poisoning former Russian agents on UK soil.
Most of what everyone calls an escalation on Russia's part is just more of the same from them.
What was the escalation after the West sent main battle tanks? Missile strikes and more bombing of civilian targets.
What was the escalation after the West announced sending long range artillery? More missile strikes and more bombing of civilian targets.
F-16s are announced. More threats of escalation, including nuclear threats and then more of the same.
Russia can hardly claim to be retaliating when they launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine, mobilised its industrial base and shifted to a wartime economy; All while the West, so we are told, have refused to do the same.
Putin is the instigator not the retaliator. Any alternative narrative is dishonest.
Furthermore Ukraine is already striking well within Russia with its own drones. And also using Western weapons on parts of Ukraine that Russia claim is now part of the Russian federation.
This is another bluff of Putin as he knows ATACMS will obliterate their supply lines and logistics within Russia itself.