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May 27 2024 06:43am
Quote (dro94 @ May 26 2024 02:10pm)
I'd be careful attributing Germany's stagnation with energy imports from Russia, it's a tenuous link. They've had terrible domestic energy policy, they produce things that China can produce at greater scale for cheaper without much difference in quality, they have a shortage of workers, and the political situation is increasingly deadlocked between greens and liberals on economic policy to the point where infrastructure projects are not getting through parliament anymore.

Medium to long term view is pretty rosy for the West, though. By having to re-supply their energy imports and safeguard national security, Western countries have ramped up investment in renewable energy. Increased investment in LNG from the USA and Qatar will increase supply and reduce global gas prices by about 30% from today's prices in 2 years time, according to HSBC. As capital intensive activities become less correlated with energy requirements over time, owing to increased efficiency, we won't need as much gas in relative terms. Also, European gas reserves are currently at ATHs.


there is no rosy long term view for western europe, demographics, infrastructure, education are all in complete shambles

enjoy the caliphate

there is also no real worker shortage in germany except a handful of craftsman jobs and the rest in minimum wage (or like 2 bucks above) slave labor

that narrative only serves to push people into university to create an abundance so the big companies can hire engineers for 40k a year

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May 27 2024 07:00am
Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ May 27 2024 01:43pm)
there is no rosy long term view for western europe, demographics, infrastructure, education are all in complete shambles

enjoy the caliphate

there is also no real worker shortage in germany except a handful of craftsman jobs and the rest in minimum wage (or like 2 bucks above) slave labor

that narrative only serves to push people into university to create an abundance so the big companies can hire engineers for 40k a year


If you read my post, the rosy long term outlook is in relation to Europe's energy needs.
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May 27 2024 08:02am
Quote (dro94 @ May 27 2024 03:00pm)
If you read my post, the rosy long term outlook is in relation to Europe's energy needs.


exactly, they are the same arguments

the future energy needs wont be a problem.....because of deindustrialisation

you cant say that its a good outlook, when the place basically gets shut down

the green party and friends will celebrate lower energy consumption

meanwhile in reality even blue chip players like BASF are shutting down major parts of their ludwigshafen chemical plant, which for decades has been one of the best plants on the planet
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May 27 2024 08:04am
The thing with Germany, in context of this war is they were duped into believing that the enemy is to the east and if they don't fully oppose Russia then it will be an objective net negative for them. "If we don't stop them here we are next" type hoaxes. In reality, Germany is/was not under any Russian threat and whether Ukraine remained under Russian sphere or moved to western was not that material to them. As an economic powerhouse, they don't need to compete with Russia but they compete with the US and China. Having access to cheap Russian energy gave them a material advantage to punch above it's weight and stay relevant. The real rivalry is economic in nature and it's from the US/China not commodity exporter Russia. By decoupling from cheap Russian energy, those other two benefit on a global scale while Germany will lose sizable market share. In the beginning, it was really easy to understand German reluctance because like why would they commit seppuku, what is actually there to gain? But then you could see the slow media pressures & other outside forces that basically forced Germany into this position. They should have had strong leaders to say, no we put our economic interest ahead of everything, but much of Europe's powers are basically controlled not by their sovereign elected leaders but by globalist neocon forces that believe only way is a unipolar world order.

Macron and a few others keep talking about creating an independent of US, Europe military and power base. Because in current state Europe basically is subservient to external geopolitical and economic interests. There's a reason he said something like this recently, because he knows behind the scenes who's calling the shots.


Quote
Strong armies, a European rapid intervention program and force, tanks, a missile shield and other weapons, produced in Europe, will need the support of “a joint diplomatic force that will speak with one voice and build bridges with Africa and Latin America,” the French leader said.

“Only then will Europe show that it’s not a United States’ lap dog, and that it also knows how to talk to other regions of the world,” he said.


https://apnews.com/article/france-macron-europe-eu-paris-sorbonne-speech-a3f4de514a88ca324ed1c545fc3821c1

This post was edited by ofthevoid on May 27 2024 08:15am
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May 27 2024 08:29am
Quote (dro94 @ 27 May 2024 14:31)
Can you be more specific about the UK attacks on the Russian mainland you're referring to? It would be a peculiar way of describing Ukrainian attacks on Russian military targets with UK produced weaponry.

Maybe not bombing London anytime soon, but in a year or two? Maybe. A nuclear power in NATO seems like the most logical target for reciprocal action.


North Sea Link and Hound Point pipe still exist despite UK actively encouraging terrorism towards Russian / German infrastructure.
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May 27 2024 08:36am
Quote (ofthevoid @ May 27 2024 04:04pm)
The thing with Germany, in context of this war is they were duped into believing that the enemy is to the east and if they don't fully oppose Russia then it will be an objective net negative for them. "If we don't stop them here we are next" type hoaxes. In reality, Germany is/was not under any Russian threat and whether Ukraine remained under Russian sphere or moved to western was not that material to them. As an economic powerhouse, they don't need to compete with Russia but they compete with the US and China. Having access to cheap Russian energy gave them a material advantage to punch above it's weight and stay relevant. The real rivalry is economic in nature and it's from the US/China not commodity exporter Russia. By decoupling from cheap Russian energy, those other two benefit on a global scale while Germany will lose sizable market share. In the beginning, it was really easy to understand German reluctance because like why would they commit seppuku, what is actually there to gain? But then you could see the slow media pressures & other outside forces that basically forced Germany into this position. They should have had strong leaders to say, no we put our economic interest ahead of everything, but much of Europe's powers are basically controlled not by their sovereign elected leaders but by globalist neocon forces that believe only way is a unipolar world order.

Macron and a few others keep talking about creating an independent of US, Europe military and power base. Because in current state Europe basically is subservient to external geopolitical and economic interests. There's a reason he said something like this recently, because he knows behind the scenes who's calling the shots.




https://apnews.com/article/france-macron-europe-eu-paris-sorbonne-speech-a3f4de514a88ca324ed1c545fc3821c1


you make a good point, the german government was very hesitant to do what it ended up doing

and that just proves one point again

the real decision making is not made in berlin, its done in washington d.c and they want to keep germany as a client state

now the germans will freeze in winter without big daddy americas premium priced gas
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May 27 2024 09:04am
Quote (Goomshill @ May 27 2024 11:30am)
So as far as trying to predict the future goes
It looks like the NATO response to Russia shifting the balance towards winning in Ukraine is escalating to attacks on the Russian mainland, and we've already seen the pretty significant attack on Russian nuclear early warning radar systems
The question becomes, does Russia just try to shrug it off while winning in Ukraine anyway, or do they respond with their trademark reciprocal escalation, and if so, what will that look like? They've threatened attacks on UK targets inside and outside of Ukraine in response to UK attacks on the Russian mainland, but I don't see them bombing london any time soon.

if I'm trying to guess what Russia could do within its current powers, with minimal chance of failure and embarrassment (ie not having cruise missiles get shot down before reaching a target) and without escalating to full ww3 (ie not having ICBMs drop on nato and trigger MAD), and still try to keep it proportional to the targeting of early warning radar systems.... I'm almost guessing Russia will use an anti-satellite weapon to strike western satellites in the near future. It could give Putin his own sputnik moment, let him claim his attack killed nobody and still frame it as a legitimate military target in the Ukraine war. But this is all just a wild guess


The UK has a critical airbase in Cyprus. Russia has a naval base in Syria.
That is the only version of some kind of direct attack I can foresee; In terms of a direct attack against military targets.

Aside from that underwater infrastructure. But then again, as always that is just more of the same from Russia; Whether its sabotage of espionage surmounting to poisoning former Russian agents on UK soil.
Most of what everyone calls an escalation on Russia's part is just more of the same from them.

What was the escalation after the West sent main battle tanks? Missile strikes and more bombing of civilian targets.
What was the escalation after the West announced sending long range artillery? More missile strikes and more bombing of civilian targets.
F-16s are announced. More threats of escalation, including nuclear threats and then more of the same.

Russia can hardly claim to be retaliating when they launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine, mobilised its industrial base and shifted to a wartime economy; All while the West, so we are told, have refused to do the same.
Putin is the instigator not the retaliator. Any alternative narrative is dishonest.

Furthermore Ukraine is already striking well within Russia with its own drones. And also using Western weapons on parts of Ukraine that Russia claim is now part of the Russian federation.

This is another bluff of Putin as he knows ATACMS will obliterate their supply lines and logistics within Russia itself.


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May 28 2024 12:39am
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ May 26 2024 08:33am)
Russian Air force dropping accurate glide bombs on a supermarket
packed with civilians.
At least 6 dead, 55 injured, over a dozen missing

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg33y9eedz7o.amp


What Israel does every single day using precision weapons provided by the West :rolleyes:

Oh wait that must be a whataboutism
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May 28 2024 06:31am
Quote (Djunior @ May 28 2024 08:39am)
What Israel does every single day using precision weapons provided by the West :rolleyes:

Oh wait that must be a whataboutism


Israel has far right xenophobic and fanatic governement, agree. Russia is more like full of reckless brutes enslaving their own people, collaborating with terrorist governements like Iran or inhuman dictatorships like North Korea or China.
Can't find a good reasons to bomb a supermarket. Sorry lol.
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May 28 2024 06:35am
Quote (Meanwhile @ May 28 2024 02:31pm)
Israel has far right xenophobic and fanatic governement, agree. Russia is more like full of reckless brutes enslaving their own people, collaborating with terrorist governements like Iran or inhuman dictatorships like North Korea or China.
Can't find a good reasons to bomb a supermarket. Sorry lol.


Where did I say there was a good reason to bomb a supermarket?

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