Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 25 2024 06:32pm)

What is there not to understand? Russia started this war out of its own volition, no matter how justifed or unjustified it might have been. The ecomic fallout from this war of their choosing has dramatically increased their dependence on China, so their ability to go against Chinese interests is much lower now than it was before 2022. Now, post-Ukraine, they are a de facto vassal of Beijing. They weren't before.




The gained lots of empty land plus a couple of bombed out cities. The industry in the Donbass is sizable, but also horribly outdated and barely competitive on the global markets. So the main thing they will probably gain is some natural resources (of which they already had plenty before) and some farmland. And unlike what Goom loves to claim, they won't seize the bulk of Ukraine's farmland; it will be roughly one fourth to one third of it. They will presumably also prevent the rest of Ukraine from joining NATO anytime soon, but on the flip side, they just gained 1300km of new NATO border with Finland and the Baltic Sea is now completely controlled by NATO.

The price they have to pay for this conquest is a drastic deterioration of their relationship with Europe, the loss of their most solvent buyer of natural gas, well over a hundred thousand dead soldiers, dramatic government expenses for the war and burning through a big chunk of their remaining soviet-era arms and ammunition stockpiles.




Why do you single out Germany? It's far from the only European country affected by the loss of Russian pipeline gas. And the fallout from this war further drove inflation all around the globe, including in the US. I expect the presidential election to end up very tight, so this might well be the extra push which gets Trump over the hump and costs Biden his reelection.

Speaking about short-term economic effects, it would of course have been better for the entire West to turn a blind eye to Russia's invasion and keep trading and buying the cheap gas. It was a collective decision that it's presumably better in the long run to put a stop to Russia's apparent neo-imperialist ambitions now rather than later. Stopping them in Ukraine, a place which is ultimately disposable from our point of view, is better than having to do it in the Baltics or even in Poland.

Side note: all of Germany's multinational corporations are publicly traded, foreign investors hold an outright majority or at least a sizable minority of the stock of virtually all of them. US capital is particularly invested in the German economy, so it's not like they would be unfazed if Germany's economy goes into a deep recession or even crumbles. US investment firms and pension funds would lose billions of dollars in that scenario.

Quote

A man who spent two years moderating one of the internet's most influential sources of information on Ukraine is being called up to fight against Russia.

Mykola Sokalskii, a 39-year-old film producer from Kyiv, started live-streaming on Reddit in 2020 after the pandemic began.

Then, a few months before Russia invaded in February 2022, he joined r/Ukraine as a moderator, one of the users empowered to help shape the subreddit's conversation.

Speaking to Business Insider, Sokalskii said the subreddit "skyrocketed" in popularity on Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, swelling from 80,000 members to 906,000.

It became a key source of information on the war, often breaking news of major events and featuring gritty combat videos that mainstream journalists scrambled to confirm.

It was also a community — a strongly partisan one — coordinating fundraising efforts to get equipment and aid to soldiers on the front line.

Sokalskii — who uses the username "JesterBoyd" — said he uses Reddit to convey what he sees as "objective truth" about the war to its members, predominantly in the US, UK, and Germany.

A shift in perspective
His days as a moderator are filled with reviewing heartbreaking posts detailing the tragedies in his country. He monitors the responses — giving him a unique perspective on how the West is viewing the invasion.

He is often struck by how fickle the support can be, but also the huge power he has to show the reality of war to so many people.

"We can see how the public opinion shifts and transforms based on the information they consume, and the responsibility we have is to give information that is objective," he told BI.

"When you travel through a war-torn landscape, you will see one house that will be completely obliterated, and then the neighbor's house will be pretty much fine — and it's kind of unfair in a way," he said.

"But that's just the way things are, and that's also the way you can portray war. You can focus on one house, or you can focus on another, or you can try to give a wider, more general picture and try to convey some kind of objective truth."

Ukraine's weakness
One issue often discussed on the subreddit is Ukraine's need for more troops.

Ukraine has recently stepped up its efforts to replenish soldiers. It lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25, eliminated some draft exemptions, and created an online registry for recruits.

Ukraine's parliament also passed a bill earlier this month that would allow the country's military to recruit prisoners to fight.

That effort now includes drafting Sokalskii.

The need is clear — US estimates have suggested Ukraine has already lost some 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers, The New York Times reported.

Sokalskii knows it better than most. He said he had long been thinking about what would happen if he went to the frontline.

Writing in a thread in April, Sokalskii said he'd been served a drafting notice, and was going through the process of getting ready to serve.

One person asked: Wouldn't he be more valuable to Ukraine helping run the subreddit?

"In a perfect world, I could do both more effectively by being in the army," he said. But the world isn't perfect.

"In reality, an army is an army and I expect it to be exceedingly difficult to post content regularly without endangering anyone and still being informative and engaging enough to make a difference," he said.

Flaws in Ukraine's conscription process
Sokalskii spent a long time thinking about the country's conscription process, which has been plagued by corruption. He said he believes it would work better as a lottery where "everybody has to suffer equally" — with the option to trade with a family member or friend willing to take your place.

In August, Zelenskyy fired all of Ukraine's military recruitment chiefs after an investigation revealed they were accepting up to $10,000 in bribes to help people avoid being drafted.

"I think everyone should be equal… I don't really care whether you are a CEO or a plumber," Sokalskii said.

Sokalskii declined to share specifics on enlistment, citing that he was still going through the process.

But he said working as a moderator helped to set basic expectations for war.

"My mom is very worried and wouldn't want me to go. What can you do?" he said.

Some Reddit users offered well-wishes, while others, who appeared to have military experience, offered advice on survival.

"Keep a safe distance from your buddies when out in the open. And stay dry — this is a survival thing: being miserable grinds people down mentally so they make stupid decisions," one person wrote in the thread he started.

Another wrote: "If I might offer one piece of advice as a combat vet myself, make sure you have plenty of dry socks."

"I know this may sound stupid to a lot of people, but it is arguably the most important piece of kit you'll have," they said. "It's hard to fight when the skin on your feet is rotten and falling off in chunks."

Sokalskii said the support he has received from the subreddit community has made him "proud to be a part of it."

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ May 26 2024 08:33am)

Russian Air force dropping accurate glide bombs on a supermarket
packed with civilians.
At least 6 dead, 55 injured, over a dozen missing

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg33y9eedz7o.amp

Quote (Goomshill @ May 26 2024 11:05am)

https://www.businessinsider.com/reddit-moderator-jester-boyd-ukraine-russia-enlistment-war-sokalskii-subreddit-2024-5
:bouncy:

Quote (ofthevoid @ May 26 2024 02:11am)

Because for you to be pointing at Russia as being a vassal for waging a war to protect their own influence is kind of a giant joke from Germany. You guys gave up your symbiotic relationship with Russia that basically was key to have cheap energy to maintain a competitive manufacturing advantage and all you got from it is permanently higher energy prices, higher coal use/dirty energy use, some industry shutting down, oh an top of that expectation that you will take in millions of more hungry mouths and be the welfare provider for Ukraine. My point, if the Russians are viewed as Chinese vassals in all of this who are at least getting something out of it, what does that make you guys getting nothing but liabilities? So it's a bit of 'throwing stones from a glass house', Germany right now is the ultimate vassal state to US interests.

Quote (dro94 @ May 26 2024 08:10am)

I'd be careful attributing Germany's stagnation with energy imports from Russia, it's a tenuous link.They've had terrible domestic energy policy, they produce things that China can produce at greater scale for cheaper without much difference in quality, they have a shortage of workers, and the political situation is increasingly deadlocked between greens and liberals on economic policy to the point where infrastructure projects are not getting through parliament anymore.

Medium to long term view is pretty rosy for the West, though. By having to re-supply their energy imports and safeguard national security, Western countries have ramped up investment in renewable energy. Increased investment in LNG from the USA and Qatar will increase supply and reduce global gas prices by about 30% from today's prices in 2 years time, according to HSBC. As capital intensive activities become less correlated with energy requirements over time, owing to increased efficiency, we won't need as much gas in relative terms. Also, European gas reserves are currently at ATHs.

Quote (ofthevoid @ May 26 2024 02:45pm)

Not really. Sure we can agree they've mismanaged their energy planning needs, with the shutting down of the nuclear reactors & other things but they still had a huge net-positive reliance on cheap Russian gas. Replacing that with structurally higher cost LNG terminals is not a positive, nor is fantasized full reliance on renewables happening anytime soon. Pipeline gas is cheaper for short-medium distance (i.e. from Russia to Germany) and the economics made much more sense versus bringing LNG from much farther ME or US.

I agree that it's rosy, because we have the wealth and know how to figure it out eventually, but really their reliance was not a national security risk. It was framed that way from Washington's POV that wants its vassals to not build ties with potential geopolitical enemies. That's why the halls of power in US repeatedly said that Nordstream won't be allowed.

Quote (Goomshill @ May 27 2024 11:30am)

So as far as trying to predict the future goes
It looks like the NATO response to Russia shifting the balance towards winning in Ukraine is escalating to attacks on the Russian mainland, and we've already seen the pretty significant attack on Russian nuclear early warning radar systems
The question becomes, does Russia just try to shrug it off while winning in Ukraine anyway, or do they respond with their trademark reciprocal escalation, and if so, what will that look like? They've threatened attacks on UK targets inside and outside of Ukraine in response to UK attacks on the Russian mainland, but I don't see them bombing london any time soon.

if I'm trying to guess what Russia could do within its current powers, with minimal chance of failure and embarrassment (ie not having cruise missiles get shot down before reaching a target) and without escalating to full ww3 (ie not having ICBMs drop on nato and trigger MAD), and still try to keep it proportional to the targeting of early warning radar systems.... I'm almost guessing Russia will use an anti-satellite weapon to strike western satellites in the near future. It could give Putin his own sputnik moment, let him claim his attack killed nobody and still frame it as a legitimate military target in the Ukraine war. But this is all just a wild guess

Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 26 2024 12:32am)

What is there not to understand? Russia started this war out of its own volition, no matter how justifed or unjustified it might have been. The ecomic fallout from this war of their choosing has dramatically increased their dependence on China, so their ability to go against Chinese interests is much lower now than it was before 2022. Now, post-Ukraine, they are a de facto vassal of Beijing. They weren't before.




The gained lots of empty land plus a couple of bombed out cities. The industry in the Donbass is sizable, but also horribly outdated and barely competitive on the global markets. So the main thing they will probably gain is some natural resources (of which they already had plenty before) and some farmland. And unlike what Goom loves to claim, they won't seize the bulk of Ukraine's farmland; it will be roughly one fourth to one third of it. They will presumably also prevent the rest of Ukraine from joining NATO anytime soon, but on the flip side, they just gained 1300km of new NATO border with Finland and the Baltic Sea is now completely controlled by NATO.

The price they have to pay for this conquest is a drastic deterioration of their relationship with Europe, the loss of their most solvent buyer of natural gas, well over a hundred thousand dead soldiers, dramatic government expenses for the war and burning through a big chunk of their remaining soviet-era arms and ammunition stockpiles.




Why do you single out Germany? It's far from the only European country affected by the loss of Russian pipeline gas. And the fallout from this war further drove inflation all around the globe, including in the US. I expect the presidential election to end up very tight, so this might well be the extra push which gets Trump over the hump and costs Biden his reelection.

Speaking about short-term economic effects, it would of course have been better for the entire West to turn a blind eye to Russia's invasion and keep trading and buying the cheap gas. It was a collective decision that it's presumably better in the long run to put a stop to Russia's apparent neo-imperialist ambitions now rather than later. Stopping them in Ukraine, a place which is ultimately disposable from our point of view, is better than having to do it in the Baltics or even in Poland.

Side note: all of Germany's multinational corporations are publicly traded, foreign investors hold an outright majority or at least a sizable minority of the stock of virtually all of them. US capital is particularly invested in the German economy, so it's not like they would be unfazed if Germany's economy goes into a deep recession or even crumbles. US investment firms and pension funds would lose billions of dollars in that scenario.