Quote (bogie160 @ May 22 2024 12:35pm)
This is what I suggested 2 years ago. After all, why would Ukraine want to rule over lands populated by Russians and Russian speakers who want nothing to do with them? Better to cut their losses, emerge as a more unified country, and integrate Ukraine immediately into the EU/NATO framework. Instead we find ourselves two years out, with the prospect of an independent Ukraine at all a question mark.
We should take casualty figures with a grain of salt, not the least because everyone is lying. Ukraine has mobilized repeatedly, Russia has mobilized 300,000 personnel once. Ukrainian volunteers have dried up, Russian "volunteers" are still coming in numbers to both sustain current operations and open new fronts (see: Kharkiv). Ukrainian intelligence reports another ~10,000 men mobilizing on the Sumy-Kursk border. This hasn't come at the expense of operations in the Donbass and Donetsk / Zaporizhia border, where pace is increasing. Reports from Kharkiv are that Ukrainian units suffered heavy losses repelling the limited Russian advance. Casualties in the Donbass are heavy, as you'd expect when Russia has advanced beyond fortified lines (see: Adviivka) and has a 10:1 artillery and 3:1 (or more) personnel advantage.
Per Foreign Affairs...
Is this even possible? To your question about what winning looks like, somewhere between vassalizing all of Ukraine and seizing Odessa / Mykolaiv / Kherson / Zaporizhia / Donetsk / Luhansk / Kharkiv.
Partly true and I agree Ukraine was always divided along that generally east/west, Ukrainian/Russian axis.
I tend to believe if any "deal" was struck 2 years ago the cost to Russia's military would have been so low that more conflict would be inevitable. Akin to appeasement of Hitler of the Anschluss, Sudetenland or Rheineland.
Nobody is claiming its a great deal for Ukraine to fight on, but it was never even supposed to survive beyond a few months. Ukrainians didn't choose to be invaded after all.
Equally does Russia have the capability to take control of any three of these Oblasts? Odessa / Mykolaiv / Kherson / Zaporizhia / Donetsk / Luhansk / Kharkiv.
After they've had 10-1 artillery advantage for two years, they haven't done so.
Time will tell if Ukraines line will collapse.
I think Putin needs a tangible "victory" that he can negotiate from a position of strength.
I don't see Russia steamrolling thousands of miles of the front with the 30k a month cannon fodder they are bringing in from central asia or Cuba.
I can see Donetsk and Luhansk being under Russian control after more months and potentially years of attrition.
This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on May 22 2024 05:43am