Agreed. What would Ukraine gain from masterminding a terrorist attack in Russia which made Russia seem sympathetic on the world stage, and which was so barbaric that even Hamas and the Taliban condemned it?


ISIS-K has a lot of axes to grind with Russia, and they're currently in a struggle with other islamist groups for power and influence within the islamist scene. They are the one group which has a historic motive and which stands to gain from "successfully" carrying out such an attack.

Like I've said before, Putin is clearly trying to capitalize from a bad situation. His security apparatus was caught with its pants down, so they're deflecting and simultaneously trying to utilize this attack as a justification for an escalation of their war in Ukraine, perhaps also another round of conscription.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 7 2024 06:13pm

What axes do they have to grind? Seems to me there is a much more obvious target for an islamist terror group to go after at the moment. I didn't hear any allahuakbars and as far as I know no suicide bombers either so it seems a little off brand doesn't it?

AFAIK they took credit for it in a news release from an Amaq telegram channel, I couldn't find it posted anywhere myself and have only seen references to the amaq release in everything I've read about it. If this was to make a name for themselves, besides the fact that Israel or Iran would be a much better target they also haven't done much to actually associate themselves with it from what I've seen.

ISIS-K operates in Central Asia, where the Russians have been fighting against and oppressing islamist insurgencies for decades. The Soviets famously fought a war in Afghanistan in which they slaughtered islamist rebels by the thousands. They have also cracked down brutally on muslims in Chechnya and Dagestan, etc.

And those Chechens by strange circumstances are now fighting on the Ukrainian side

Are they? From what I've seen, there are far more Chechens fighting on Russia's side (Kadyrovites, Akhmat) than on the Ukrainian side.

In any case, an alliance between radical islamists and Ukraine doesn't make a lot of sense for either side. Ukraine is wholly dependent on continued Western support, so sponsoring or planning terrorist attacks risks that. For ISIS-K, associating themselves with a heavily atheist country led by a Jew and supported by the "great satan" America, would risk diminishing their reputation in the Muslim world.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the ideological fault lines in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the "islamists versus non-muslim cultures" conflict seem to be orthogonal to each other.


This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 7 2024 08:15pm

Most of their operations have been in Afghanistan or neighboring countries, at least the documented ones I've seen, and that seems to be their main base of power. Everything gets a little sketchy after 2022 because the reports of their attacks are disputed by different governments. The outlets where they supposedly take credit for these attacks also changed and don't seem to be confirmed as official sources for the group.

Considering the more recent decades long war by the US I dont really consider the Soviet one as relevant. Regarding Chechnya and Dagestan, I guess but that seems like a stretch to me because again there is a much juicier target if that is what they are going for IMO. I would believe it was just some random terror group over it being ISIS-K specifically, but the lack of anything Islamic during the attack makes me doubt that was the case at all.

My assumption ATM is that it was some third party who is interested in escalating the war for some reason, not sure who would benefit enough to take the risk but this war has affected a lot of countries.

This post was edited by DizzyBusiness on Apr 7 2024 08:13pm

Iran and India are pretty much the only two countries which have benefitted a lot from the Ukraine/Russia war AND would also benefit from further escalation. Until now, China has been the biggest winner, but they want stable global trade first and foremost, and further escalation would risk that.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 7 2024 08:19pm

I don't think India would be behind something like that, they seem to play it pretty safe, I don't know enough about their Russia relations to judge it well but I wouldnt even consider them. Iran seems less likely because they would be risking a lot if they were caught, though I suppose that's true of anyone.

I'm leaning more towards some smaller country that was negatively affected by the sanctions in some way, either the country itself of some group within it. That or just some random terrorist group. I don't think there is going to be a satisfying answer anytime soon, at least for me.

I've always leaned toward this being a genuine attack by ISIS-K, to which Putin then cynically reacted according to the good old mantra of "never let a good crisis go to waste".

Fair enough, more to support that view than mine, just doesn't click for me.