Quote (theCrossbones @ 19 Jul 2021 23:21)
I don't know why anyone thinks the "flatten the curve" was anything but a PC way to say that they needed make sure the ICU's and morgue's could keep up until more was known about the virus.
the only thing really known at that point was not being near anybody stopped spreading.
That's just not true. Four days prior to the aforementioned Fauci interview, Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London had published his infamous paper in which he discussed mitigation ("flatten the curve") vs suppression (lockdown) strategies:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdfThe key conclusions he drew were the following:
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Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined [...] the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
[...]
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time.
And a few paragraphs earlier, he wrote:
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A minimum policy for effective suppression is therefore population-wide social distancing combined with home isolation of cases and school and university closure.
To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more. [...] we estimate that for a national GB policy, social distancing would need to be in force for at least 2/3 of the time [...] until a vaccine was available.
This paper made huge winds and was widely discussed by public health experts and government advisors all around the world. Fauci must have been aware of it when he gave this interview, yet he chose words which quite clearly suggested that people would only need to hang on for a relatively manageable period of time until restrictions end.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 19 2021 04:24pm