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Apr 5 2024 11:25am
Russia’s Lavrov, who will visit China soon, calls peace plan for Ukraine ‘reasonable
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3258007/russias-lavrov-who-will-visit-china-soon-calls-peace-plan-ukraine-reasonable

Chinese plan to settle Ukranian conflict published in February 2023. I’m assuming it’s point 2) that is appealing to Russia & China.

I don’t think it’s ever been posted in this thread.

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html
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Apr 5 2024 11:30am
Quote (Malopox @ Apr 5 2024 06:25pm)
Russia’s Lavrov, who will visit China soon, calls peace plan for Ukraine ‘reasonable
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3258007/russias-lavrov-who-will-visit-china-soon-calls-peace-plan-ukraine-reasonable

Chinese plan to settle Ukranian conflict published in February 2023. I’m assuming it’s point 2) that is appealing to Russia & China.

I don’t think it’s ever been posted in this thread.

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html


I dont think it was.

China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis 2023-02-24 09:00

1. Respecting the sovereignty of all countries. Universally recognized international law, including the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, must be strictly observed. The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld. All countries, big or small, strong or weak, rich or poor, are equal members of the international community. All parties should jointly uphold the basic norms governing international relations and defend international fairness and justice. Equal and uniform application of international law should be promoted, while double standards must be rejected. 

2. Abandoning the Cold War mentality. The security of a country should not be pursued at the expense of others. The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs. The legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries must be taken seriously and addressed properly. There is no simple solution to a complex issue. All parties should, following the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security and bearing in mind the long-term peace and stability of the world, help forge a balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture. All parties should oppose the pursuit of one’s own security at the cost of others’ security, prevent bloc confrontation, and work together for peace and stability on the Eurasian Continent.

3. Ceasing hostilities. Conflict and war benefit no one. All parties must stay rational and exercise restraint, avoid fanning the flames and aggravating tensions, and prevent the crisis from deteriorating further or even spiraling out of control. All parties should support Russia and Ukraine in working in the same direction and resuming direct dialogue as quickly as possible, so as to gradually deescalate the situation and ultimately reach a comprehensive ceasefire. 

4. Resuming peace talks. Dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis. All efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of the crisis must be encouraged and supported. The international community should stay committed to the right approach of promoting talks for peace, help parties to the conflict open the door to a political settlement as soon as possible, and create conditions and platforms for the resumption of negotiation. China will continue to play a constructive role in this regard. 

5. Resolving the humanitarian crisis. All measures conducive to easing the humanitarian crisis must be encouraged and supported. Humanitarian operations should follow the principles of neutrality and impartiality, and humanitarian issues should not be politicized. The safety of civilians must be effectively protected, and humanitarian corridors should be set up for the evacuation of civilians from conflict zones. Efforts are needed to increase humanitarian assistance to relevant areas, improve humanitarian conditions, and provide rapid, safe and unimpeded humanitarian access, with a view to preventing a humanitarian crisis on a larger scale. The UN should be supported in playing a coordinating role in channeling humanitarian aid to conflict zones.

6. Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs). Parties to the conflict should strictly abide by international humanitarian law, avoid attacking civilians or civilian facilities, protect women, children and other victims of the conflict, and respect the basic rights of POWs. China supports the exchange of POWs between Russia and Ukraine, and calls on all parties to create more favorable conditions for this purpose.

7. Keeping nuclear power plants safe. China opposes armed attacks against nuclear power plants or other peaceful nuclear facilities, and calls on all parties to comply with international law including the Convention on Nuclear Safety (CNS) and resolutely avoid man-made nuclear accidents. China supports the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in playing a constructive role in promoting the safety and security of peaceful nuclear facilities.

8. Reducing strategic risks. Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought. The threat or use of nuclear weapons should be opposed. Nuclear proliferation must be prevented and nuclear crisis avoided. China opposes the research, development and use of chemical and biological weapons by any country under any circumstances.

9. Facilitating grain exports. All parties need to implement the Black Sea Grain Initiative signed by Russia, Türkiye, Ukraine and the UN fully and effectively in a balanced manner, and support the UN in playing an important role in this regard. The cooperation initiative on global food security proposed by China provides a feasible solution to the global food crisis.

10. Stopping unilateral sanctions. Unilateral sanctions and maximum pressure cannot solve the issue; they only create new problems. China opposes unilateral sanctions unauthorized by the UN Security Council. Relevant countries should stop abusing unilateral sanctions and “long-arm jurisdiction” against other countries, so as to do their share in deescalating the Ukraine crisis and create conditions for developing countries to grow their economies and better the lives of their people.

11. Keeping industrial and supply chains stable. All parties should earnestly maintain the existing world economic system and oppose using the world economy as a tool or weapon for political purposes. Joint efforts are needed to mitigate the spillovers of the crisis and prevent it from disrupting international cooperation in energy, finance, food trade and transportation and undermining the global economic recovery.

12. Promoting post-conflict reconstruction. The international community needs to take measures to support post-conflict reconstruction in conflict zones. China stands ready to provide assistance and play a constructive role in this endeavor.
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Apr 5 2024 11:57am
Quote (Malopox @ Apr 5 2024 12:25pm)
Russia’s Lavrov, who will visit China soon, calls peace plan for Ukraine ‘reasonable
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3258007/russias-lavrov-who-will-visit-china-soon-calls-peace-plan-ukraine-reasonable

Chinese plan to settle Ukranian conflict published in February 2023. I’m assuming it’s point 2) that is appealing to Russia & China.

I don’t think it’s ever been posted in this thread.

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html


This was one of the other things I pointed out early on in this war
Its an inevitability that Russia will win and Ukraine will lose, but that Russia can't/won't take all of Ukraine, meaning whatever turmoil could erupt in Kiev, the end result is still going to be a ceasefire of some kind, rather than a full blown surrender. And China has already shown its willingness to intervene in conflict zones to negotiate peace when it favors Chinese geopolitical interests like region stability even if it doesn't involve China, which is what we saw in the middle east a few years ago. With Biden and Democrats stonewalling any prospect of US brokered peace, the likelihood is still that China moves in to be the mediators who get all the credit for ending the war and once again make America look foolish, same as what happened with the KSA & Iran.

Its really a shitburger for American interests all around. We'll lose the war and lose influence and Bejing will wrap its tendrils even further around the rest of the world and we basically teed it up for them
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Apr 5 2024 12:10pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Apr 5 2024 06:57pm)
This was one of the other things I pointed out early on in this war
Its an inevitability that Russia will win and Ukraine will lose, but that Russia can't/won't take all of Ukraine, meaning whatever turmoil could erupt in Kiev, the end result is still going to be a ceasefire of some kind, rather than a full blown surrender. And China has already shown its willingness to intervene in conflict zones to negotiate peace when it favors Chinese geopolitical interests like region stability even if it doesn't involve China, which is what we saw in the middle east a few years ago. With Biden and Democrats stonewalling any prospect of US brokered peace, the likelihood is still that China moves in to be the mediators who get all the credit for ending the war and once again make America look foolish, same as what happened with the KSA & Iran.

Its really a shitburger for American interests all around. We'll lose the war and lose influence and Bejing will wrap its tendrils even further around the rest of the world and we basically teed it up for them


I disagree with this, on the basis that the US is the involved party, therefore it will be a US negotiation. it would be hilarious ofc if Russia insisted on China being involved in the negotiations with the US. that in itself would be a huge blow to US soft power - which is why i dont envisage it.
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Apr 5 2024 12:33pm
Quote (ferdia @ Apr 5 2024 01:10pm)
I disagree with this, on the basis that the US is the involved party, therefore it will be a US negotiation. it would be hilarious ofc if Russia insisted on China being involved in the negotiations with the US. that in itself would be a huge blow to US soft power - which is why i dont envisage it.


I mean China has shown clear interest and made moves multiple times to start negotiations and given policy speeches about it, while the US has stonewalled it at every turn with the 'fight to the last Ukrainian' mentality
not exactly much of a prediction to make
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Apr 5 2024 01:05pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Apr 5 2024 07:33pm)
I mean China has shown clear interest and made moves multiple times to start negotiations and given policy speeches about it, while the US has stonewalled it at every turn with the 'fight to the last Ukrainian' mentality
not exactly much of a prediction to make


sorry i read your post wrong, i thought you were suggesting china would broker a peace.
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Apr 5 2024 09:04pm
Quote (ferdia @ Apr 5 2024 02:05pm)
sorry i read your post wrong, i thought you were suggesting china would broker a peace.


But that's what I'm suggesting, or more, that China will try to broker peace and insert itself as a mediator especially if the war breaks down further. They've had their frozen plan for at least a year after Xi's big public speech on it, but their actual involvement is more likely to insert themselves and take credit after the war is decided, whether that's by the west abandoning support or Kiev imploding. At some point the war is going to end, and whether its a Biden regime militantly opposed to negotiations or a Trump regime that disregards the conflict, the door is open for China to make good either way. They don't need to swing their dicks around and hash out terms, they just need to endorse Russian gains while claiming the high ground.
What's the alternative? Who in the US is going to negotiate terms of surrender in a proxy war when they can lose nothing by simply maintaining their hostile tack indefinitely? Its what we did with the Afghanistan war, Joe Biden went completely silent and still is, we never negotiated between the Taliban and our supposed ally tribes, they figured out their own surrenders and bribes to lay down arms all on their own. Imagine Biden doing a mea culpa and laying his sword at the foot of some goat herding warlord. He wouldn't win an election for garbage commissioner.

This post was edited by Goomshill on Apr 5 2024 09:05pm
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Apr 6 2024 12:47am
Quote (Goomshill @ Apr 6 2024 04:04am)
But that's what I'm suggesting, or more, that China will try to broker peace and insert itself as a mediator especially if the war breaks down further. They've had their frozen plan for at least a year after Xi's big public speech on it, but their actual involvement is more likely to insert themselves and take credit after the war is decided, whether that's by the west abandoning support or Kiev imploding. At some point the war is going to end, and whether its a Biden regime militantly opposed to negotiations or a Trump regime that disregards the conflict, the door is open for China to make good either way. They don't need to swing their dicks around and hash out terms, they just need to endorse Russian gains while claiming the high ground.
What's the alternative? Who in the US is going to negotiate terms of surrender in a proxy war when they can lose nothing by simply maintaining their hostile tack indefinitely? Its what we did with the Afghanistan war, Joe Biden went completely silent and still is, we never negotiated between the Taliban and our supposed ally tribes, they figured out their own surrenders and bribes to lay down arms all on their own. Imagine Biden doing a mea culpa and laying his sword at the foot of some goat herding warlord. He wouldn't win an election for garbage commissioner.


Its dawning on me what you are saying, but your right, they simple leave conflicts. they dont resolve them.

if like they play in a green house, make a mess, knocking over all the plants, breaking a window, and they dont hang around to take responsibility like a grown up.

This post was edited by ferdia on Apr 6 2024 12:51am
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Apr 6 2024 01:24am
So China would like a ceasefire, but sadly that's not cool for Ukraine. Ukraine needs a permanent peace, not a ceasefire.
If Ukraine let their men leave their country, there will be not enough soldiers to defend.
So the hostilities need to continue, until Russia cannot fight any longer and permanent peace is signed.
Imo the acceptable deal for both sides is Russia keep their conquered land, while the rest of Ukraine gets a NATO membership.
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Apr 6 2024 02:19am
Quote (Ironfister @ Apr 6 2024 08:24am)
So China would like a ceasefire, but sadly that's not cool for Ukraine. Ukraine needs a permanent peace, not a ceasefire.
If Ukraine let their men leave their country, there will be not enough soldiers to defend.
So the hostilities need to continue, until Russia cannot fight any longer and permanent peace is signed.
Imo the acceptable deal for both sides is Russia keep their conquered land, while the rest of Ukraine gets a NATO membership.


Pretty sure the China draft, posted above, was a roadmap to a peace deal, not a ceasefire.
The Ultra Nationalists in Ukraine, i.e. the Neo Nazi's, stayed and fought. Most of them are no longer fighting.
Russia has more people then Ukraine by an order of magnitude, but if you still think that Ukraine's best hope is to win a war of attrition, carry on.
Ukraine has categorically ruled out any deal with Russia and is insistent on reclaiming all of their lands. so your suggestion is not acceptable to them. They have not changed their mind. on the other hand, Russia has not changed its position re: Nato enlargement (i.e. Ukraine in Nato).

There are numerous interviews with Ukrainians and most of them all say that they want all of Ukraine back and wont stop fighting until they achieve that. The will of the people is very dogmatic and determined.

This post was edited by ferdia on Apr 6 2024 02:25am
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