Quote (ownyaah @ Mar 30 2024 09:10pm)

The frontline is very slowly moving, a stalemate of sorts, but its not frozen, the conflict is obviously still ongoing.

Could be that this is where the lines are drawn, or like you said another broad offensive. Or a 3rd option, attrition goes on for a year, two, five, and then another push comes.

It is still too early to call the conflict there is still obvious amassing of production&troops

Quote (bogie160 @ Mar 30 2024 09:16pm)

The front-line is static because thousands of men are dying to maintain it. That's not the same thing as a frozen conflict. Russia clearly believes that it can force a victory through attrition. If Ukraine begins to run out of men the front-line will collapse and Ukrainian statehood with it.

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Mar 30 2024 10:25pm)

Agreed. A frozen conflict doesn't mean the fighting has stopped. If the current trajectory continues its not unrealistic to say it is frozen.
Agree that there is potential for it to go in several directions.

About the casualty rates. Anyone saying 10-1 is not accurate.

We won't know for sure. One thing is for certain is Russia use reckless tactics in assault.

Didn't that Russian mil blogger admit there was 15k dead and over 100 armoured vehicles destroyed?
And later committed suicide because he got so much criticism.

Quote (ownyaah @ Mar 30 2024 09:28pm)

Im not sure id listen to a singular person, esp one depressed with doomer intentions, a similar person would be Girkin, or on the ukranian side arestovich (bless)

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Mar 30 2024 10:29pm)

Maybe I remember incorrectly but pretty sure he was an accurate blogger for the Russian side.

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ 31 Mar 2024 00:29)

Maybe I remember incorrectly but pretty sure he was an accurate blogger for the Russian side.

Quote (ownyaah @ Mar 30 2024 09:31pm)

I think mediazona is pretty good, i also like bomber for AF news

Thing with politics is, there is so few reliable people. Everyone is bought and paid for, so finding a good source is essentially impossible.

There used to be this mapper who put up positions, composition of russian army during the first month of the war and he was visited by kremlin.. Probably the best mapper to exist

Quote (Norlander @ Mar 30 2024 09:32pm)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrey_Morozov_(milblogger)

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ 31 Mar 2024 00:44)

Ye true.

I mean we all saw the footage of offensive moves for ourselves. Ukrainians driving into minefields and Russian convoys driving through open fields getting lit up.

No doubt casualty rates have been immense.



Was he a reliable source, in your opinion?

Quote (ownyaah @ Mar 30 2024 09:52pm)

Okay lets assume 355k russians have been killed, and wounded beyond return.

How many ukranians?

That source states, as many other western have including zelensky:

Russia has a 6 to 8 advantage in artillery
Russia has a massive advantage in glide bombs
Russia has more anti-air
Russia has more long range missiles
Russia has an even, or some advantage in short-range drones
Russia has a massive advantage in long range drones (shaheed)
Russia has a massive advantage in mid-range drones (lancets)

Go ahead. If you ask me, the most optimistic take would be 1:1 in any world, but somehow despite all of these advantages russia loses 10 to 1? Is it because of superior genetics?

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Mar 30 2024 05:27pm)

If the front does collapse, it will no longer be frozen.