According to uk intelligence Russia is recruiting 30000 a month

If we assume 3000 dead a month and 3000 injured beyond return (200 killed in action/seriously injured per day), that is a surplus of 24000 soldiers a month. So every 8 months, they have 4 new field armies..

These numbers aren´t reasonable if you are looking to freeze the conflict.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1774049069322682668

From your own source:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1764244391630184736

Okay lets assume 355k russians have been killed, and wounded beyond return.

How many ukranians?

That source states, as many other western have including zelensky:

Russia has a 6 to 8 advantage in artillery
Russia has a massive advantage in glide bombs
Russia has more anti-air
Russia has more long range missiles
Russia has an even, or some advantage in short-range drones
Russia has a massive advantage in long range drones (shaheed)
Russia has a massive advantage in mid-range drones (lancets)

Go ahead. If you ask me, the most optimistic take would be 1:1 in any world, but somehow despite all of these advantages russia loses 10 to 1? Is it because of superior genetics?

This post was edited by ownyaah on Mar 30 2024 02:55pm

An army of recruits won't last long on the front.

Afaik it is true Russia is recruiting enough men, mostly through "crypto-mobilisation"
But sending a new recruit to the front isn't anything except sending cannon fodder; Which ironically is likely perfect for Gerasimov's generals.

Edit - The conflict is already frozen.

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Mar 30 2024 02:53pm

Recruits last longer than mobiks.

-I will consider conflict frozen when 100fabs, 8000 artillery shells aren´t fired daily.

This post was edited by ownyaah on Mar 30 2024 02:56pm

Russia has had artillery superiority for 2 years. I think what is more of a change is Russia using glide kits on FAB's and taking more risks with jets.
Aside from incremental gains and taking two largely symbolic destroyed villages Russia is not making large sweeping territorial pushes. And Ukraine is certainly not.

Unless Russia has the stomach to attempt a broader offensive this summer, the front is largely frozen.

Told ya Ukrainians are the Master Race, close to Aryans and therefore Tadjiks.

The frontline is very slowly moving, a stalemate of sorts, but its not frozen, the conflict is obviously still ongoing.

Could be that this is where the lines are drawn, or like you said another broad offensive. Or a 3rd option, attrition goes on for a year, two, five, and then another push comes.

It is still too early to call the conflict there is still obvious amassing of production&troops

praise

The front-line is static because thousands of men are dying to maintain it. That's not the same thing as a frozen conflict. Russia clearly believes that it can force a victory through attrition. If Ukraine begins to run out of men the front-line will collapse and Ukrainian statehood with it.