Quote (ofthevoid @ 25 Mar 2024 17:11)
The frequency of these types of strikes far away from the front have really ramped up in the last 1-2 weeks. These type of strikes that used to happen maybe like 1-2 monthly are happening daily now in the last week, with Russia clearly going after infrastructure that was previously left unharmed.
I don't really understand why they're targetting infrastructure now, at the end of winter, though. If they wanted to demoralize and wear down Ukraine's civilian population, it would have been far more effective to carry out these attacks at the height of winter, just like they did a year ago.
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Targeting electricity/water infrastructure in Kharkiv could also be seen as a precursor to an all out assault/invasion in that direction. You first ‘empty out’ the city by targeting the infrastructure, which then causes many civilians to leave and head for safety, so then when you bring war you don’t kill innocent people needlessly.
Russia's conduct of this war so far hasn't exactly been characterized by an effort to prevent the needless killing of innocent people.
Imho, destroying the infrastucture of the city is best explained by an attempt at starving out the defenders of the city before Russia tries to take it by storm at a later point, potentially in the summer or during next winter.
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The war is certainly escalating, it’s hard to tell if it’s reactionary (response to refineries) or was planned all along.
Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, warships and border towns definitely ramped up in recent weeks, so it oculd be a reaction. On the other hand, it would also make sense that Putin waited for his reelection before pulling the trigger on an all-out war. Particularly if he plans a new round of mobilization (which wasn't popular with the Russian people the first time and will be even less popular this time around).