Quote (Meanwhile @ 24 Mar 2024 01:48)
Yesterday, for the first time, the Kremlin spokesperson used the word "war" to describe its intervention in Ukraine.
According to Stephen Hall, a specialist in Russian politics at the British University of Bath interviewed by France 24, this means "very probably that a massive mobilization is approaching" on the Russian side.
He recalls in particular that the Russian Defense Minister "has just announced his intention to create two new armies by the end of the year".
Imho, there are only two explanations for the attack on Crocus City Hall which make sense:
Either it is what it seems on the surface, a barbaric attack by ISIS-K who, in typical jihadist fashion, don't need a lot of justification for attacking civilians at a music event.
Or it is a false flag operation, intended to drive up support in Russia for a further mobilization/escalation of the war in Ukraine.
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Regarding the false flag theory: remember the series of deadly bombings on apartment buildings which shook Russia to its core in 1999 and triggered the Chechen war.
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In September 1999, a series of explosions hit four apartment blocks in the Russian cities of Buynaksk, Moscow, and Volgodonsk, killing more than 300, injuring more than 1,000, and spreading a wave of fear across the country. The bombings, together with the Invasion of Dagestan, triggered the Second Chechen War. The handling of the crisis by Vladimir Putin, who was prime minister at the time, boosted his popularity greatly and helped him attain the presidency within a few months.
The blasts hit Buynaksk on 4 September and Moscow on 9 and 13 September. On 13 September, Russian Duma speaker Gennadiy Seleznyov made an announcement in the Duma about receiving a report that another bombing had just happened in the city of Volgodonsk. A bombing did happen in Volgodonsk—but only three days later—on 16 September.
Totally normal, not sus at all.
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Chechen militants were blamed for the bombings, but denied responsibility, along with Chechen president Aslan Maskhadov. A suspicious device resembling those used in the bombings was found and defused in an apartment block in the Russian city of Ryazan on 22 September. On 23 September, Vladimir Putin praised the vigilance of the inhabitants of Ryazan and ordered the air bombing of Grozny, which marked the beginning of the Second Chechen War. Three FSB agents who had planted the devices at Ryazan were arrested by the local police. The next day, FSB director Nikolay Patrushev announced that the incident in Ryazan had been an anti-terror drill and the device found there contained only sugar, and freed the FSB agents involved.
Patrushev is a long-time companion and confidant from Putin's inner-most circle and was his successor as director of the FSB.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Russian_apartment_bombings#Alleged_Russian_government_involvementIt was never proven conclusively whether Chechen separatists carried out the bombings or whether it was a false flag by the FSB. In any case, the playbook seems eerily similar.
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The timing would also add up: Putin waits until after the presidential election to make sure that his power is secure, then pulls the trigger that whips up the necessary support for a mass mobilization so that Russia can finally secure the decisive breakthrough in its war in Ukraine.
On the other hand, a lot doesn't really make sense about the false flag theory. This time, unlike in 1999, Putin's power is already secured and one could argue that a massive escalation of the war effort in Ukraine poses more risk than opportunity for him. Carrying out a terrorist attack on one's own people would also be an absolutely heinous and traiterous act, if such an operation goes wrong and the public learns of the true mastermind, it would spell the end for Putin's rule (and probably also for his life), so the personal risk would be immense. Maybe worth it while he was still an ascending politician vying with others for power back in the 90s, but probably not worth it for someone who already is on top.
And last but not least, ISIS has released footage from the attack on its channels today, which lends further credibility to the theory that it was indeed them.
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My personal opinion: ISIS-K had planned such an attack for quite some time, which is also why US intelligence warned about an imminent attack in early March. Due to the heightened security measures surrounding the presidential election, they had to delay their attack. A couple of weeks later, when Russian security became less vigilant, they found the opening to strike. Putin quickly deflected blame toward Ukraine, to distract from the failure of his security apparatus and also to advance his agenda regarding Ukraine, according to the motto "never let a good crisis go to waste".
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 24 2024 12:50pm