Again: A conspiracy theory? Can you explain what a conspiracy theory is and how I was building one? Who am I alledging are in a conspiracy and against or for what?
Second: Describe the lie.
Third: You were the one who brought Ursula up (which is really strange, why would you all of the sudden trust unverified numbers from the EU), not me. I don't know where she got her numbers from 1.5 years ago, I guess you have to ask her. All I know is any numbers she had were unverified and were redacted.

Daily reminder that awakening the Russian war machine was probably not a good idea:

Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN.

Russia is running artillery factories “24/7” on rotating 12-hour shifts, the NATO official said. About 3.5 million Russians now work in the defense sector, up from somewhere between 2 and 2.5 million before the war. Russia is also importing ammunition: Iran sent at least 300,000 artillery shells last year — “probably more than that,” the official said — and North Korea provided at least 6,700 containers of ammunition carrying millions of shells.

Russia has “put everything they have in the game,” the intelligence official said. “Their war machine works in full gear.”

According to the senior NATO official, Russia is producing between 115 to 130 long-range missiles, and 300 to 350 one-way attack drones based on an Iranian model provided by Tehran, each month. Although before the war, Russia had a stockpile of thousands of long-range missiles in its arsenal, today it is hovering around 700, the official said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html

This is all known and no surprise. In the short term this wartime steading is bloating the Russian economic outlook in a positive direction. The negative effects could also be felt on Russia's long-term economy later. Its a big gamble.

I think the biggest improvement they have made recently is turning FAB-1500s from dumb drop munitions into more accurate glide bombs; Russia has a vast amount of those munitions and converting them to glide bombs is very cheap compared to building new missiles.
The US did the same thing in the late 80's and 90's with the JDAM's and essentially coasted on this tech for 30 years.

Ya that's a good point. The only thing that's gona help Ukraine against fabs is air power because patriot battery's are starting to get smoked ( they just got another near kharkov)

I am curious as to your take on the situation, what do you think Ukraine can do to stop the Russian airforce from running away with the war?

Air vice-marshal Sean Bells latest take, he is not afraid to admit areas where Russia is making gains; Also not shy to pour water on ideas that are not realistic, like "is Putins regime about to collapse?" he shuts down these unrealistic ideas pretty fairly.


My take is that the Russian air force won't "run away with the war" but they will be able to enact conditions similar to what happened in Avdiivka, where they were dropping around 100 of these 1500kg bombs per day. The limiting factors to the success this tactic can have are the frontline is massive and even after aerial bombardment ground troops still have to physically take ground at great cost.

Ukraine will have to commit its anti air capability to areas they want to counter this capability. It does not have enough to cover the entire front in ways they would want.
I think what they have being doing is telling. They have been targeting the A-50's. They want to degrade Russia's capability in an asymmetrical way. Basically they can't meaningfully erode the volume of Russian jets and munitions but they could damage the effectiveness of Russian air power.

They also need an attack capability with its own airforce, eg F-16's able to cross into Russia and attack Russian airbases. This obviously has great risk for Ukrainian pilots and even 60 F-16s will not be enough to remove tip the balance of air superiority in Ukraines favour.

Around about 25:00 he explains the optics of Russias imminent threat to Europe

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Mar 13 2024 07:15am

You are accusing users of building conspiracy theories which is why I mention that if it wasn't obvious.

You have a short memory (also proven by the fact you cannot remember what I said about NK and China, also Myanmar was not brought up in any post)

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And Ursula's public statement is directly related to what was being discussed namely Ukrainian casualty numbers being marginalized. Ursula's statement (100K Ukrainian casualties) was immediately corrected, proving my point. Can't you figure that one out?

This post was edited by Djunior on Mar 13 2024 07:26am

I watched the first minute and stopped right there because reality is that Russia is more capable right now than at the beginning of the conflict.


You say they now realize Putin's regime didn't collapse? Did they admit they were wrong from the onset about this, that the sanctions backfired and that THEY are the ones who are actually running out of stuff?

Surprise me and I'll watch it

None of this responds to any sort of question I have asked. Lets try again and see if you can actually respond without rambling about completely unrelated things this time:

Again: A conspiracy theory? Can you explain what a conspiracy theory is and how I was building one? Who am I alledging are in a conspiracy and against or for what?
Second: Describe the lie.
Third: You were the one who brought Ursula up (which is really strange, why would you all of the sudden trust unverified numbers from the EU), not me. I don't know where she got her numbers from 1.5 years ago, I guess you have to ask her. All I know is any numbers she had were unverified and were redacted.

I should add that if you cant answer any of these questions I would like you to apologize and recant your insane statement that i am "building conspiracy theories" and "lying". Thank you, I know you will do the right thing, cause you're not a bad faith actor, right?

Don't try to make it sound like I'm the one who started rambling about conspiracy theories, YOU did. (as I just showed everyone here)

Mentioning Ursula is NOT strange because we were talking Ukrainian casualty numbers.

In fact the whole Ukrainian casualty numbers issue is something strange, Zelensky recently said they only have 31K killed (entire conflict)

Taking about marginalizing Ukrainian casualties lol

Inb4 another dodge