Considering there was close to zero insurgency in Crimea 2014-2022, and very occasionally in Donetsk, then yes.

Compare this to iraq, or afghanistan where sucide bombings, attacks, ambushes happened daily. In early 2022 i thought it could develop in that direction, esp if you looked at energodar, konotop etc, but as things are now a insurgency isn´t a major aspect of the war, partly because russians withdrew from the most anti-russian areas taken. I think most would agree that areas currently under russia, civs are content with getting their salaries&pensions paid and not being conscripted.

This post was edited by ownyaah on Mar 11 2024 03:24pm

Crimea was predominantly "pro Russian" and there was very little fighting for any insurgency to follow.
A lot of ill feeling will exist after any armistice.
I would add that a lot of insurgency in the middle east was fairly poorly supplied in comparison to Ukraine.
Unless and even if the Ukrainian military disintegrates the development of drone warfare will still provide a whole new problem for any occupying force.

If Russia conquered west Ukraine and tried to hold it they would have to worry about insurgencies. Why would they be worrying about insurgencies in ethnic Russian areas that aligned with Russia for hundreds of years and were already fighting a civil war against the west?
That's like asking if the Union was worried about slave revolts after the civil war

Why wouldn't they?

There's an insurgency right now in Belgorod, how long has that been aligned with Russia?

Extremely wishful thinking at best, naive at worst. A million trained, equipped and pissed off Ukrainians are just gonna chill after any ceasefire?

Good luck with that.

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Mar 11 2024 03:55pm

Give the eastern ukrainians 150 years, huey long and the black panthers and nation of islam and obamaphones and corporate DEI and sure maybe the union will have slave revolts to worry about



If western Ukraine starts attacking Russia after a ceasefire, that's not an insurgency, that's just resumption of war.

This post was edited by Goomshill on Mar 11 2024 03:58pm

Climbdown.

Why would Russia have to worry about an insurgency? Meanwhile, literal insurgency in Belgorod Russia for the past year...

50 russians backed by a few 100s special forces from lvov committing "insurgency" in a city of 350k..

If there was a serious insurgency we would be getting videos from tokmak, bilmak, melitopol, berydyansk, enerohodar every day. Instead we have SBU doing an attack every 30-60 days, in an area the size of 30% of europe.

You know americans used walk even in duhok armed, during down time? I can bet you, russians aren´t walking around with machine guns when eating at melitopol.

This post was edited by ownyaah on Mar 11 2024 04:03pm

There is currently a front line. Your optimism is impressive, I'll give you that much.



Obliterated

China, Russia and Iran are holding joint naval exercises this week near the Gulf of Oman, according to the Chinese defense ministry.

According to a ministry statement Monday, the exercises, dubbed “Security Bond-2024,” will take place from Monday to Friday and aims to “strengthen maritime cooperation” and “jointly safeguard regional maritime security.”

According to Russian news agencies, Moscow’s defense ministry said, “The practical part of the exercise will take place in the waters of the Gulf of Oman in the Arabian Sea.” Moscow also added that the drills would facilitate maritime safety.

Russian state media reported ahead of this week’s drills that ships from Russia’s Pacific Fleet arrived at Iran’s Chah Bahar port Monday, led by the Varyag cruiser.

https://www.voanews.com/a/china-iran-russia-host-naval-drills/7522919.html