Quote (ferdia @ Mar 11 2024 05:29pm)
Because Ukraine was no Putin's neighbor, it was his wife. He does not care if his neighbor sleeps around but he didnt want his wife sleeping around and stabbing him in his sleep. again this has all already been said.
why dont you give your opinion on why he invaded, i gave you my opinion already, but to reiterate: he saw Ukraine in Nato as a perceived threat.
Can you answer why you disagree about the nuclear weapons justification for invading specifically? I've asked about 3 times for you to clarify.
I explained why I don't consider Nuclear weapons within Ukraine to an a literal escalation of what currently is possible, from both sides.
Are you kidding I gave my opinion on why he invaded? Are you trolling?
See here?
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Mar 11 2024 04:20pm)
I didn't say that exactly. But the perceived "threat" in terms of nuclear weapons or missiles being staged in Ukraine, is moot. As those options already exist.
In fact nukes could be stationed even closer to Moscow currently than if they were in Ukraine.
TL;DR - Putin perceived a threat, not to Russians but to his own regime.
Putin saw an opportunity and was led to believe that EU/US would not intervene based on the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
Obama did not act then, so why would Biden act now?
The war in Ukraine is an extension of the larger disintegration of the Russian empire/Soviet system/Moscow based power structure within and around eastern Europe.
In the same way that leaving India spelled the end of the British empire; Ukraine leaving the Russian sphere of influence would be the final and fatal disintegration of the Russian empire.
I didn't say that exactly. But the perceived "threat" in terms of nuclear weapons or missiles being staged in Ukraine, is moot. As those options already exist.
In fact nukes could be stationed even closer to Moscow currently than if they were in Ukraine.
Before I forget to mention this point. If we assume Mearsheimer's theory of offensive realism holds true, are Biden and others not justified to assume that Russia could attack another European country?
If Putin perceived that NATO would not intervene in say the Baltic states, or in Transnistria; Then by Mearsheimer's reasoning, Putin could/would act aggressively and any fear of that action is justified.
I am still processing how I can explain what I agree with in terms of the perceived threat of Ukraine in NATO, from Russia's perspective; But I'll try it.
Its probably important because I think it is where the opposing views of the cause of the war overlap.
Ok so I do not agree or believe that NATO posed a literal or conventional military threat to Russia. Period. The only caveat is that after the Arab Spring revolutions Putin, also being a dictator, found reason to re-evaluate his regimes domestic power base; And particularly after the protests that Navalny helped to instigate.
Related to this I also believe that the Kremlin regime implicitly has to have the US as its opponent, to maintain global relevance and maintain the domestic narrative.
These ideas are not fully my own but I believe I first heard them from Stephen Kotkin on Lex Friedman podcast.
That said, I can however see why Putin would view Ukraine joining NATO as a threat. Not to Russia, or to everyday Russians; But to the regime in Moscow and to the idea of the Russian world.
I can understand that geopolitically the eastern part of Ukraine has great importance from Putins perspective. The resources, the importance of the Don canal joining the Black sea and the Caspian sea. The naval infrastructure in Crimea.
The importance of Crimea in force projection within the region.
Socially it is vitally important that Russian speakers are part of a greater Russia, from Putins perspective. Having Russian speaking Ukrainians in the European union specifically would be a potential death knell for Putin.
We can all agree that generally speaking the Western European quality of life is greater than that of large swathes of Ukraine, Belarus or Russia. That is not being elitist. That is factual. There are definitly exceptions, so that is why I say generally.
If we look at the trend of former Soviet states moving towards the Western sphere, it is fair to assume that over time Ukraine would also gravitate in that direction. Which could cause massive problems for Putin domestically.
Say that your a resident of Rostov. And your friend living in Donetsk that recently joined the European union now has an increased quality of life. Benefits, increased social mobility, EU funding is able to improve infrastructure; If you are witnessing that happen so close to your own life in the Russian federation, you are certainly going to pay attention to that. And that has consequences.