I disagree with your assessment that Ukraine in Nato is not seen as a Russian threat, by Russia.

lets try this: How did this war start? what caused it in your opinion?

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 11 2024 09:53am

If Biden does away with SS and Medicare through inflation alone, that would be an insane conservative flex though.

Well worth watching



This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 11 2024 10:06am

Not a mature response, do better

According to you NATO is defending Ukraine while at the same time you acknowledge that NATO has been messing with Ukraine since 2008 knowing all too well this could have severe consequences

Am I getting this right

This post was edited by Djunior on Mar 11 2024 10:14am

I didn't say that exactly. But the perceived "threat" in terms of nuclear weapons or missiles being staged in Ukraine, is moot. As those options already exist.
In fact nukes could be stationed even closer to Moscow currently than if they were in Ukraine.


TL;DR - Putin perceived a threat, not to Russians but to his own regime.

Putin saw an opportunity and was led to believe that EU/US would not intervene based on the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
Obama did not act then, so why would Biden act now?
The war in Ukraine is an extension of the larger disintegration of the Russian empire/Soviet system/Moscow based power structure within and around eastern Europe.
In the same way that leaving India spelled the end of the British empire; Ukraine leaving the Russian sphere of influence would be the final and fatal disintegration of the Russian empire.

I didn't say that exactly. But the perceived "threat" in terms of nuclear weapons or missiles being staged in Ukraine, is moot. As those options already exist.
In fact nukes could be stationed even closer to Moscow currently than if they were in Ukraine.

Before I forget to mention this point. If we assume Mearsheimer's theory of offensive realism holds true, are Biden and others not justified to assume that Russia could attack another European country?
If Putin perceived that NATO would not intervene in say the Baltic states, or in Transnistria; Then by Mearsheimer's reasoning, Putin could/would act aggressively and any fear of that action is justified.

I am still processing how I can explain what I agree with in terms of the perceived threat of Ukraine in NATO, from Russia's perspective; But I'll try it.
Its probably important because I think it is where the opposing views of the cause of the war overlap.

Ok so I do not agree or believe that NATO posed a literal or conventional military threat to Russia. Period. The only caveat is that after the Arab Spring revolutions Putin, also being a dictator, found reason to re-evaluate his regimes domestic power base; And particularly after the protests that Navalny helped to instigate.
Related to this I also believe that the Kremlin regime implicitly has to have the US as its opponent, to maintain global relevance and maintain the domestic narrative.
These ideas are not fully my own but I believe I first heard them from Stephen Kotkin on Lex Friedman podcast.

That said, I can however see why Putin would view Ukraine joining NATO as a threat. Not to Russia, or to everyday Russians; But to the regime in Moscow and to the idea of the Russian world.
I can understand that geopolitically the eastern part of Ukraine has great importance from Putins perspective. The resources, the importance of the Don canal joining the Black sea and the Caspian sea. The naval infrastructure in Crimea.
The importance of Crimea in force projection within the region.

Socially it is vitally important that Russian speakers are part of a greater Russia, from Putins perspective. Having Russian speaking Ukrainians in the European union specifically would be a potential death knell for Putin.
We can all agree that generally speaking the Western European quality of life is greater than that of large swathes of Ukraine, Belarus or Russia. That is not being elitist. That is factual. There are definitly exceptions, so that is why I say generally.

If we look at the trend of former Soviet states moving towards the Western sphere, it is fair to assume that over time Ukraine would also gravitate in that direction. Which could cause massive problems for Putin domestically.
Say that your a resident of Rostov. And your friend living in Donetsk that recently joined the European union now has an increased quality of life. Benefits, increased social mobility, EU funding is able to improve infrastructure; If you are witnessing that happen so close to your own life in the Russian federation, you are certainly going to pay attention to that. And that has consequences.

It was me that posted that video originally.

to reiterate, i disagree with your assessment/opinion that it was moot re: Ukraine:Nuclear weapons. Also I already commented on Russia not having conscripted enough men to invade western Europe and the map of what Russia has done, which again, does not support the notion that Russia wants all of Ukraine.

re; "If we look at the trend of former Soviet states moving towards the Western sphere, it is fair to assume that over time Ukraine would also gravitate in that direction. Which could cause massive problems for Putin domestically.
Say that your a resident of Rostov. And your friend living in Donetsk that recently joined the European union now has an increased quality of life. Benefits, increased social mobility, EU funding is able to improve infrastructure; If you are witnessing that happen so close to your own life in the Russian federation, you are certainly going to pay attention to that. And that has consequences."

I agree that Ukraine was ever moving westwards, I said this before and I will say it again. They should have taken the long view and not built up their army, not scared putin. In an ideal world all countries are equal in size and can do what they want, but we dont live in an ideal world and smaller countries have to be careful around larger neighbors.

Why do you disagree with that assessment about nuclear weapons?

About the lack of conscription notion somehow proving Putin did want "all of Ukraine"
Russia literally attacked Kiev and were beaten back. I think Putin actually believed Zelensky would flee the country, regime change would occur and that Ukrainians would not put up the defence the did.
Putin has also subsequently mobilised hundreds of thousands of troops.
I also think he was wrongly led to believe that a majority of Ukrainians would welcome Russian troops, which in a way they were welcomed but with Molotov cocktails.

I would add though, that we are discussing the reason for why Putin invaded. Your kind of conflating this question with the current situation of what Bidens narrative is, of Russia posing further threats of invasion or having larger imperial ambitions.

"They should have taken the long view and not built up their army, not scared putin."
That sounds like someone with battered wife syndrome or the most gas lit excuse ever

" we dont live in an ideal world and smaller countries have to be careful around larger neighbors."
That is just, kind of a crazy black mirror statement. Its self defeating and contradictory. Ukraine should not seek to join NATO in case it pisses Vlad off but they should be very careful around their larger more powerful neighbour?
If offensive realism is a valid theory in this case, then Ukraine should expect aggression from its more powerful neighbour and immediately seek security guarantees.

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Mar 11 2024 10:53am

Obviously

Glad you feel better about the correct use of words to describe those war crimes.