Quote (Goomshill @ Feb 27 2024 06:07pm)
So a big point to bear in mind is that Russia appears to be sweeping over front line fortifications and trenches. They're not in an all-out breakout, like we can see as they've had recon units probing right up to the next cities like Chasiv Yar, but they're not trying to storm them yet, just move up artillery and bombard them. Once these front lines are falling, what happens next? What will stand between a Russian breakout and major targets in the Donbas like Kramatorsk? Without the border villages and trenchwork, its just a whole bunch of flat farmlands until the major cities. What kind of defense in depth could UA forces cobble together?
They will get a shot at Kramatorsk if they want it badly enough. Can they do large scale manoeuvre more effectively than they did in 2022? Remains to be seen.
Russians have definitely improved their joint arms operation and using air power more deliberately at the front; 9 fast jets shot down in 10 days and another A-50, suggest they are taking more risk with their jets.
Will it be enough to fully remove Ukrainian forces from the cities of western/northern Donbas? Only guessing at this point.
Allegedly 60 F-16s are expected in 2024. Whether Ukraine can get 100 trained and able pilots is another question.
But even 50 F-16s now being part of the equation is not something Russia can simply overlook.
After Tsar Vlad's Potemkin re-election there could easily be another round of mobilisation which would also effect the balance of force.
This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Feb 27 2024 02:18pm