Quote (Black XistenZ @ Feb 24 2024 06:27pm)
Imho, the key section of the article is this one:
Yup, but it's imho highly doubtful that Russia would be willing to give up on these plans right now, with the momentum on their side and crucial military supplies to Ukraine hanging in the air. Why the fuck would Russia stop doing what they're doing at this point in time, unless a negotiated peace gives them nearly everything they want, inculding turning Ukraine into a defenseless corpse and a de facto vassal state? Why would they settle for less than that while they believe they can get this outcome on the battlefield?
It goes back to what I've already been saying months ago: the time for peace talks is after Ukraine successfully fights back the next proper offensive of Russia, the next Russian attempt at taking meaningful amounts of territory. Then and only then will Russian leadership consider the risks and costs of a continuation of the war and perhaps settle for a true compromise along the lies from the quote. If Ukraine proves unable to accomplish such a defense, they're fucked either way and will get their proverbial cheeks clapped, no matter if it's on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.
Russia still needs to fight a costly war to gain a relatively meager amount of territory and resources. The main strategic vulnerability of the separatist regions is what, water supply?
Putin is still paying a high price for the war now and faces the same questions about the cost vs reward of an operation much of the subordinate structure was drawn into somewhat unaware.
The thing is, Russia was never really proactive about trying to impose its will on Ukraine in the first place. Putin wasn't some hardcore irredentist trying to rebuild an empire, the status quo ante was an independent Ukraine only loosely in their sphere of influence. Russia could have tried to twist Ukraine at any point in the post cold war era, they didn't until the US tried to bring it into the west by force. Because its simply not worth it for Russia like its not worth it for us. The poorer half of the poorest country in Europe, missing the significant chunk of natural resources Russia already annexed. Hungry mouths to feed that would gladly suckle off the EU welfare state, and it probably serves Russia's longterm geopolitical interests to freely give away everything west of the Dnipro even if they
could seize it.
The point being, between the costs of attrition and the real lack of reward, Russia has some pretty thin margins to actually make real gains between now and any negotiations. Putin has
already manuevered Russia into an advantageous position for peace talks, successfully fought an offensive and taken a good chunk of what he wants. There's still significant lands at risk, and western Ukraine could still try to sue for peace in hopes of retaining the Donbas farmlands, because if the lines continue to collapse that's precisely what Russia is going to seize in coming months or years at this rate. But at heavy cost to Russia. And thus it can be in both the west's interests and Russia's interests to end the war and let Ukraine retain some lands it would lose if the conflict continued.