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Feb 21 2024 03:58am
Quote (ferdia @ 21 Feb 2024 11:55)
There are several things here, so I will ask the first question and will see where we go from there - i.e. :

1. If the plan is to supply Ukraine...to enable them to hold roughly their current territory, then why did they not agree to the peace deal last year, or destroy this years talks of peace? I can only assume that when you refer to retaining their sovereignty you mean reclaim crimea and the donbass? can you clarfiy?

anyway, im going to watch a few hundred video's from Zelensky to try to understand him a bit better.


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Feb 21 2024 04:20am
Quote (ferdia @ 21 Feb 2024 09:55)
There are several things here, so I will ask the first question and will see where we go from there - i.e. :

1. If the plan is to supply Ukraine...to enable them to hold roughly their current territory, then why did they not agree to the peace deal last year, or destroy this years talks of peace? I can only assume that when you refer to retaining their sovereignty you mean reclaim crimea and the donbass? can you clarfiy?

anyway, im going to watch a few hundred video's from Zelensky to try to understand him a bit better.


A country that relies on foreign military and economic aid to continue functioning normally is not sovereign by definition. Ukraine has lost its sovereignty for the foreseeable future.
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Feb 21 2024 04:40am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Feb 21 2024 01:08am)
A lot of opportunity has already been squandered. Had the West not been as reluctant with supplying heavy weapons, Ukraine could have driven Russia out of much more occupied territory back when Russia was in disarray in the fall of 2022. By giving Russia enough time to dig in and fortify their positions, the spring 2023 counteroffensive was doomed from the get go.

Anyway, to answer your question: imho, the plan is to supply Ukraine with enough weapons to enable them to hold roughly their current territory and ultimately retain their sovereignty. At the end of the day, Russia has taken just 2 cities over the past 20 months, one of them in a nearly indefensible position, both of them only after months-long fighting and suffering huge losses. And in both cases, it was a static fight in which Russia could concentrate its artillery fire and air support on a narrow battlefield, maximizing their advantage. But to go further from here, they'd need to capture and hold wide open territory.

The prevailing sentiment in this thread seems to be that Russia will steamroll Ukraine from here on out, but as long as Western support for Ukraine doesn't dry up entirely, this is absolutely NOT a given. Possible, yes, but far from inevitable.

One more thing to keep in mind: Ukraine will not be the only party suffering from attrition and war fatigue - it will affect Russian society too. Maybe not to the exact same degree, but still. So now that Russia got the things they wanted the most out of this war, will they really be able to keep up the same fighting spirit, the same willingness to invest a ton of resources and lives into further conquests?




this is an old video but to me it encapsulates Ukraine's objectives, to reclaim all land lost since the start of the war (and presumably Crimea as well). I have seen no evidence to suggest the plan has changed.
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Feb 21 2024 05:02am
Quote (ferdia @ Feb 21 2024 11:40am)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-kM4DCmFoY

Ukraine's objectives, to reclaim all land lost since the start of the war (and presumably Crimea as well). I have seen no evidence to suggest the plan has changed.


The question is if the Ukranian population still aligns with those goals. Zelenskyy himself cannot be faltering in his objectives or otherwise, his credibility would be at stake.
It remains to be seen how the elections will turn out this year in Ukraine. Anything else than a decisive approval for Zelenskyy would give Russia the affirmation that they are on the right track to win the war of attrition.


I'm also curios if Zaluzhnyi will run for the presidential office. He supposedly is a popular figure in Ukraine.

Speaking about the Western support the countries have proclaimed that they would support Ukraine till they win whereas winning is a term not frequently used anymore.
And hardly anyone in Europe is willing to do their part with the countries adjacent to Ukraine carrying the heaviest load.
And what the supporters say contrasts their actions. It was pretty obvious that they could not supply Ukraine with sufficient material, even NATOs own stocks are depleted and in a war scenario they would only last a couple of hours.
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Feb 21 2024 05:15am
Quote (Gala @ 21 Feb 2024 12:02)
The question is if the Ukranian population still aligns with those goals. Zelenskyy himself cannot be faltering in his objectives or otherwise, his credibility would be at stake.
It remains to be seen how the elections will turn out this year in Ukraine. Anything else than a decisive approval for Zelenskyy would give Russia the affirmation that they are on the right track to win the war of attrition.


I'm also curios if Zaluzhnyi will run for the presidential office. He supposedly is a popular figure in Ukraine.

Speaking about the Western support the countries have proclaimed that they would support Ukraine till they win whereas winning is a term not frequently used anymore.
And hardly anyone in Europe is willing to do their part with the countries adjacent to Ukraine carrying the heaviest load.
And what the supporters say contrasts their actions. It was pretty obvious that they could not supply Ukraine with sufficient material, even NATOs own stocks are depleted and in a war scenario they would only last a couple of hours.


There will be no elections in Ukraine until martial law is lifted. Zelensky is here to stay until the end.

This post was edited by Malopox on Feb 21 2024 05:22am
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Feb 21 2024 06:14am
Quote (Malopox @ Feb 21 2024 11:15am)
There will be no elections in Ukraine until martial law is lifted. Zelensky is here to stay until the end.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_presidential_election

Presidential elections were scheduled to be held in Ukraine on 31 March 2024 according to the constitution, which mandates elections be held on the last Sunday of March of the fifth year of the incumbent president's term of office.[1][2][3] However, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, since 24 February 2022 the Ukrainian government has enacted martial law, and Ukrainian law does not allow elections to be held when martial law is in effect.[4][5][6]

Politicians in Ukraine representing both government and opposition sides have expressed doubt over the viability of holding an election in 2024, citing concerns over security and displaced voters.[3][7] Russia controls nearly a fifth of Ukraine's territory and millions of Ukrainians have fled their country.[3][7] Among the other challenges are damaged infrastructure, outdated voter registry, restricted rights under martial law and the lack of funds.[7] The Ukrainian constitution stipulates that a president's term concludes only when a successor is sworn in, indicating that Volodymyr Zelenskyy could continue to serve as president even after the expiration of the original five-year term to which he was elected.[7]

In November 2023, Zelenskyy said "now is not the right time for elections"[8] and asked the Parliament to approve an extension of martial law for another 90 days, until 14 February 2024. Martial law was extended for another 90 days in February 2024.[9] A poll released by KIIS in November 2023 reported that 80% of Ukrainians do not want to have an election until the war is over.[7] In November 2023, all political parties represented in the Verkhovna Rada signed a document in which they agreed to postpone holding any national election until after the end of martial law[10] and agreed to work on a special law that would regulate the first post-war election, which would take place no earlier than six months after the cancellation of martial law.[11]
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Feb 21 2024 06:54am
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/02/20/hundreds-ukrainian-soldiers-captured-withdrawal-avdiivka/
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Up to 1,000 soldiers appear to have been taken prisoner or are unaccounted for following the retreat from Avdiivka, sources claim


This post was edited by Malopox on Feb 21 2024 06:54am
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Feb 21 2024 07:20am
what's happening in Poland?



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Feb 21 2024 08:19am
The people have spoken:

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Feb 21 2024 08:56am
Quote (zorzin @ Feb 21 2024 02:19pm)


If Russia is not going to invade all of Ukraine then the obvious answer is a settlement, and not an outright victory for either side. The definition of Ukraine winning the war is also vague, presumably it means reclaiming all of Ukraine + Crimea.

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 21 2024 08:59am
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