Day 722

It is my guess, that Russia will not move west of Kherson, Dnipro, or West of Kyiv, and Russia will probably be mulling over everything east of Kyiv depending on how the war goes this year. i.e. the more resistance Ukraine makes, the more likely it is that Russia will conscript more men next year and claim the lands east of Dnipro.

TLDR of these images: Russia has not shown a willingness to proceed beyond these lines (notwithstanding the push on Kyiv previously) yet Western media continues to spin a story of Russia's "goals" of invading europe. The media's fearmongering (such as the CNN opinion piece from yesterday) is removed from the reality of the lat 700+ days.

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 20 2024 08:00am

Nobody knows that, but all threats, statements and actions indicate it's a possiblity and would make it extremely careless to not be prepared for worst case szenario.

its an opinion / assumption / guess, no one knows, one cannot attribute facts to future events when they may or may not occur. but i dont mind giving opinions and being proven wrong. When you look at the images, over 700 days, the western narrative "invading poland and europe under threat!" does not make sense.

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 20 2024 08:01am

I tend to error on the side of taking the Russians at their word, regarding their intentions.

Did the Russians ever claim they'd wrap it up in 2 weeks? Nope. That was western journos. Did the Russians ever claim they wanted to conquer Ukraine? Nope. That was western journos.

Ukraine has pretty convincingly lost it's bid to conquer the Donbas Republics. What remains to be seen at this point is if they'll back off, or sacrifice what little is left of their male population in their defeat, leaving their nation defenseless and completely open to annexation either by Russia itself or the West.

Winners generally don’t get tried for “war crimes”. US has implemented “Hague invasion act” if any of US servicemembers or politicians ever end up in The Hague and has sanctioned ICC for attempting to investigate Afghanistan (https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/12/14/us-sanctions-international-criminal-court ).

Almost none of the allied winning countrymembers got tried for war crimes against axis servicemembers and civilians. Instead we make cool Hollywood movies about those war crimes like “Inglorious Basterds”


TLDR: losers lose, try not to lose.

There are no indications that Ukraine will back down, there is no precedent for this, they do not compromise. there are alot of indications that ukraine will see this to the bitter end, and will lose more land etc.

I agree 100%. This is why I don't bring moral preconceptions to the table when discussing wars. It's a bad habit for anything other than rousing public sentiment.



Possible. Not the preferred outcome. If Ukraine does see it to the bitter end, the Sovereignty of Ukraine as a nation will likely end. Just be a question of how the nation is split up, who gets what lands. And judging from the Tucker/Putin interview, it seems like Putin has already put some thought into that.

In previous interviews Putin had suggested that if things dont work out (they wont) then they might have to go back to take Kyiv (this appears long term, likely).