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Feb 14 2024 03:22am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Feb 13 2024 10:30pm)
Never underestimate Trump's chance to shoot himself in the foot. And don't underestimate how much large swaths of the American public hate his guts. He can definitely win, I would even say he's the slight favorite as of today. But I don't believe for one second that Trump can win in a landslide, or that he's nearly as favored as he should be based on the polls and approval ratings.




Reuters is one of the few remaining news agencies without overt partisan bias. They have some geopolitical bias in favor of the US, but so do most other news agencies in favor of their respective master.


I don't know the details of this most recent ceasefire proposal, but in the past, Russia has repeatedly asked for terms which amount to a total surrender of Ukrainian sovereignty. The crux will be if the remainder of Ukraine is allowed to join the EU and/or NATO if it officially cedes the Russia-controlled pieces of its territory.





I don't think so. If Russia was happy with what it has and sought peace, they wouldn't continue, or even intensify, their attacks. Why do they keep throwing huge amounts of meat and materiel at the frontlines, why do they keep shelling cities across all of Ukraine? Why did they just announce that they will invest massively into arming up their military over the coming years if all they strive for is holding the territory which they just defended successfully this summer with the current investment level?

None of this adds up. If Russia sought peace, they could stop shelling cities across Ukraine for a couple of weeks, as a gesture of goodwill, and then publicly announce "the territory we took belongs to us now. Acknowledge it and we will have peace. Try any new counteroffensive and the shelling starts again." The war-weary Western public, and presumably a significant chunk of Ukraine's population, would gladly take such a deal.


IMO Russia is shelling cities across Ukraine because Ukraine refuses to come to the table, so what looks to be happening is that Russia is trying to beat them down into submission. If the Reuters report is true (and I would tend to believe it) the US administration is ensuring there will be no peace. If Russia is repeatedly saying lets negotiate and the USA and Ukraine are repeatedly saying no, well after a while I think more and more people will believe thats the actual situation. Even in my country when someone says lets negotiate the response from the government is "now is not the time to negotiate". So your argument that Russia is not seeking to negotiate does not jive with all the comments being made.

Anyway, the war continues...

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 14 2024 03:27am
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Feb 14 2024 04:45am


Maybe after building a 1500 tanks per year and 1000 passenger planes by 2030 the Russian manufacturing can replace the third of the Black sea fleet that was lost to a nation without a navy.

Really bringing a new definition to near peer adversary at this point.
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Feb 14 2024 05:36am
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/elon-musk-russia-ukraine-starlink-putin-zelensky-b2495137.html

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Elon Musk has called on the US to cut its weapons supply to Ukraine claiming “there is no way in hell” Vladimir Putin is going to lose the war.
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Feb 14 2024 05:39am
Quote (Djunior @ Feb 14 2024 11:36am)


a snippet from that link

“Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people,” Mr Musk said. “Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake). Water supply to Crimea assured. Ukraine remains neutral. This is highly likely to be the outcome in the end – just a question of how many die before then.
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Feb 14 2024 06:12am
Quote (ferdia @ 14 Feb 2024 10:22)
IMO Russia is shelling cities across Ukraine because Ukraine refuses to come to the table, so what looks to be happening is that Russia is trying to beat them down into submission. If the Reuters report is true (and I would tend to believe it) the US administration is ensuring there will be no peace. If Russia is repeatedly saying lets negotiate and the USA and Ukraine are repeatedly saying no, well after a while I think more and more people will believe thats the actual situation. Even in my country when someone says lets negotiate the response from the government is "now is not the time to negotiate". So your argument that Russia is not seeking to negotiate does not jive with all the comments being made.

Anyway, the war continues...


It's a sign of their weakness. They are probably trying to get the best possible deal out of that disaster.
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Feb 14 2024 08:06am
Quote (ferdia @ 14 Feb 2024 10:22)
IMO Russia is shelling cities across Ukraine because Ukraine refuses to come to the table, so what looks to be happening is that Russia is trying to beat them down into submission. If the Reuters report is true (and I would tend to believe it) the US administration is ensuring there will be no peace. If Russia is repeatedly saying lets negotiate and the USA and Ukraine are repeatedly saying no, well after a while I think more and more people will believe thats the actual situation. Even in my country when someone says lets negotiate the response from the government is "now is not the time to negotiate". So your argument that Russia is not seeking to negotiate does not jive with all the comments being made.

Anyway, the war continues...

If Russia had the ability to beat Ukraine into submission, they could just continue to do that until Ukraine surrenders unconditionally and Russia gets nearly everything - so in that scenario, they would have very little incentive to negotiate a (from their pov) lesser peace right now. The only thing they would gain from a ceasefire in that scenario is saving the lives of some of their footsoldiers - but even the biggest Russia shills will readily admit that their leadership doesn't give a single fuck about how many grunts they have to send to the slaughter.



Quote (ferdia @ 14 Feb 2024 12:39)
a snippet from that link

“Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people,” Mr Musk said. “Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake). Water supply to Crimea assured. Ukraine remains neutral. This is highly likely to be the outcome in the end – just a question of how many die before then.

As I've said before, the bolded part is criticial: what does "Ukraine remains neutral" actually entail? No NATO membership and no NATO bases on Ukrainian soil is surely a condition sine qua non for Russia.

But would a peace treaty allow Ukraine to join the EU? If the Russians don't want to allow that, I don't see a way for Ukraine to sign off on the deal. But then again, this whole conflict began when the Ukrainian parliament wanted to sign an association agreement with the EU and president Yanukovych, Moscow's puppet in Kyiv, vetoed it at the 11th hour.

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Feb 14 2024 12:28pm
Quote (BaHgerAUT @ Feb 14 2024 12:12pm)
It's a sign of their weakness. They are probably trying to get the best possible deal out of that disaster.


ok well when someone take a piece of your pie and says lets negotiate, if you resist, they might take another piece of your pie and eventually you might have no pie left. asking for the piece of pie back when its eaten is a bit difficult.

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 14 2024 12:28pm
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Feb 14 2024 02:27pm
Quote (ferdia @ 14 Feb 2024 19:28)
ok well when someone take a piece of your pie and says lets negotiate, if you resist, they might take another piece of your pie and eventually you might have no pie left. asking for the piece of pie back when its eaten is a bit difficult.


After not being able to steal an additional piece of cake for almost 2 years it will be tough negotiations. I'll probably laugh at him if he wants more pieces for peace.

This post was edited by BaHgerAUT on Feb 14 2024 02:38pm
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Feb 14 2024 02:46pm
Yogi bear in here talking about pies.
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Feb 14 2024 03:10pm
Quote (BaHgerAUT @ Feb 14 2024 03:27pm)
After not being able to steal an additional piece of cake for almost 2 years it will be tough negotiations. I'll probably laugh at him if he wants more pieces for peace.


Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition.

See:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68255490.amp
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