Quote (Hamsterbaby @ 9 Apr 2022 10:43)
As much as I think Trump is a morally questionable individual and at times extremely revolting.
I think the current Ukraine war might have been prevented if he was still the president.
And during his second term or halfway through , he would have negotiated some decent deals with China and things will still be fairly normal.
Quote (ferdia @ 9 Apr 2022 10:44)
i have only mentioned this briefly but yes i am of the same mind. its sad that a non politician of questionable character, morally bankrupt, can have a better grasp on certain things then a seasoned politician, who should.
It's really hard to tell how all of this would have gone down under Trump. He would have pursued more fossils-friendly policies at home and had a better working relationship with the Saudis, so gas prices and inflation would definitely have been less bad than under Biden.
On the other hand, would he have sent weapons to Ukraine throughout 2021 and particularly in early 2022 when the invasion was already becoming apparent? God knows. Would he have scared off Putin with some insane rhetoric, along the lines of the madman theory? Thinkable, but imho rather unlikely. After the start of the invasion, would Trump have worked as hard as Biden to keep the Western alliance and NATO together? Most likely not. Is is possible that he would have thrown Ukraine to the wolves, or that he could have wavered in terms of the NATO committment to Article 5 with regards to the Baltics? Definitely.
Basically, the whole range would have been thinkable imho, from Trump being Putin's lapdog to Trump being a giga-hawk.
I'd put it like this:
- NATO is most definitely better off under Biden
- the US domestic economy would very likely handle the fallout from the war better under Trump
- Ukraine would be better off if Trump had been able to deter the war, but significantly worse off than under Biden if not
- I don't think it would have made a large difference for Europe's economy
Quote (Goomshill @ 9 Apr 2022 11:29)
The world markets already adjusted for realization that oil markets weren't actually blowing up. That we aren't actually changing anything that matters. Countries that buy and sell the lifeblood resources are still buying and selling them, same sources, same destinations. I think the biggest threat is the world realizing how toothless the american economic threat is under Biden. We huffed and we puffed and we didnt scratch Russia. What does that say American hegemony and the petrodollar? We already accelerated a switch to alternate reserve currencies by throwing up a market barrier that other countries like India immediately circumvented without any resistance from us. Why should the crown prince feel obligated to pick up the phone? What are we going to do?
Stop arms sales to SA, threaten to prop up their big rival Iran. Unfortunately, the Biden admin had already done the latter anyway, so that this option is no longer a bargaining chip. And the crunch on the energy markets also took away his leverage in the negotiations with Iran, so that we get the worst of both worlds: an emboldened Iran and OPEC refusing to pump more.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 9 2022 05:05am