Quote (ofthevoid @ 6 Feb 2024 17:47)
People look at winning or losing a war as binary, meaning the side that lost would have been better off if they just continued to fight to eventually win. I don't really think that's the best way to look at it. To me, even if Ukraine loses and there's a general stoppage of active hostilities that's actually a lot better for the average citizen living there. No threat of bombings, no threat of mobilization, hopefully large swaths that left maybe come back to rebuild both infrastructure and the economy, business can start going again, etc. Is it better to have a short but lost war or 10 year protracted war where you 'win' but lose millions?
Once the fear of retribution went away I bet a lot of normal Germans between 1945-50 were happy it's now over and some semblance of normality can return. I look forward to the moment when Ukrainians can get this return to normal.
It depends a ton on how the other side would treat you once you've surrendered. After WW2, there were voices advocating for a much harsher peace with Germany, some plans (Morgenthau) even went as far as forcible dismantling all of Germany's industry until only an agrarian shithole is left.
During the first two post-war years, the situation in Germany was dire and the economy remained in the mud. During the 45/46 and 46/47 winters, almost as many Germans starved as during the final years of the war. It took two years, until 47, before the Allies came to the conclusion that they needed Germany as an ally and a bulwark against communism in the greater scope of the Cold War. Only then did they finally agree to a currency reform which put an end to the hyperinflation and allowed the economy to get going again. Since 48, they even began investing into the country (Marshall Plan). Since Germany had been an innovative, thriving country before the wars, it quickly got back on track under these circumstances and was flourishing again within a decade.
With Ukraine, the situation is different. They have horrible demographics, an outdated industry and can't really rely on the Russians being benevolent occupiers. (There is overwhelming historical evidence pointing to the contrary.) On the flip side, retaining their sovereignty also retains the prospect of joining the EU one day and thus gaining access to all the funding which comes with it. So the incentive for trying to hold on is bigger, and the economic outlook after a surrender-peace bleaker.