Quote (Goomshill @ 24 Jan 2024 11:31)

Where Ukraine can go right now, what options it has available- is a different discussion than what Ukraine has gained or lost from the events set in motion since the Maidan in 2014. We're talking the latter, not the former.
In the former, there's really no options for either side, the conflict has frozen and its clear enough what the outcome is- a divided Ukraine, with Russia seizing the ethnic Russian parts and western Ukraine joining the EU & NATO but only after being thoroughly devastated. Barring any unlikely implosion of the country, that seems to be the outcome. Then the latter part of the question is, how have Ukrainians fared with such an outcome? Western Ukraine has been depopulated, its infrastructure obliterated, its resources seized. Its in shambles right now and there's no indication it will get better in the next 20 years. It was already the poorest country in Europe, now its like post-famine Ireland. Things couldn't be going much worse.

The Maidan had plenty of genuine diehard nationalist Ukrainians who wanted to split from Russia and were willing to overthrow a democracy to do it, its not like a color revolution is carried out by a bunch of CIA plants. We even had those nationalists working with Biden before he became president, and in the Trump impeachment like Alexander Vindman and Eric Ciaramella. These people thought it was in their country's interests to break with Russia and join the EU. Even if it meant provoking a war. And they got their revolution, got their war, and got blown the fuck out. The result has been a bit like the outcome of the khwarazmians refusing to pay tribute to the mongol horde.

Doesn't really impact me what fate Ukraine gets from all this. Its incidental to our national interests at best, but more irrelevant really. We don't care if Ukrainians get slaughtered and we sure aren't willing to fight a WW3 on their behalf. It does become our problem when Biden jeopardizes our geopolitical interests in pursuit of this dumb conflict

Quote (babun1024 @ 24 Jan 2024 11:43)

What has happened before doesn't matter anymore. Russia doesn't trust any agreement with the "West' that's why they'd try to seize and demolish as much of Ukraine as possible. Ukraine needs to be supported to lose as little as possible until an agreement is reached/Russia won't want to continue the war (questionable). There is an arms race. Currently, Russia is outpacing Ukrainian support by 5x / 10x which is very bad for Ukraine long term (mostly ammunition and supplies). Ukraine is also de facto insolvent as a state. They can't function without western support anymore at this point. Abandoning Ukraine isn't an option for the EU/Nato either. Ukraine has got huge fields and gas reserves. Having Russian warheads that close to Europe is destabilizing causing even more tensions.
The conflict itself resulted from idiots in pentagon and in Ukraine who wanted to f*** around with Russia. Well, they're finding out at the moment.
The other relevant point for an everyday citizen is that the US and EU are printing money like crazy to finance the costs and a huge part of the inflation is due to that, devalued money.

Quote (babun1024 @ Jan 24 2024 05:43pm)

What has happened before doesn't matter anymore. Russia doesn't trust any agreement with the "West' that's why they'd try to seize and demolish as much of Ukraine as possible. Ukraine needs to be supported to lose as little as possible until an agreement is reached/Russia won't want to continue the war (questionable). There is an arms race. Currently, Russia is outpacing Ukrainian support by 5x / 10x which is very bad for Ukraine long term (mostly ammunition and supplies). Ukraine is also de facto insolvent as a state. They can't function without western support anymore at this point. Abandoning Ukraine isn't an option for the EU/Nato either. Ukraine has got huge fields and gas reserves. Having Russian warheads that close to Europe is destabilizing causing even more tensions.
The conflict itself resulted from idiots in pentagon and in Ukraine who wanted to f*** around with Russia. Well, they're finding out at the moment.
The other relevant point for an everyday citizen is that the US and EU are printing money like crazy to finance the costs and a huge part of the inflation is due to that, devalued money.

Quote (SwamiVivekananda @ Jan 24 2024 06:59pm)

Thanks for that it would make sense to me seeing that Ukraine is Europe's "bread basket" that Russia would want to take advantage of the natural resources there and the trade corridor. If Russia was able to cut off Ukraine access to the Black Sea seems like it would have big geopolitical ramifications no?

Quote (SwamiVivekananda @ Jan 24 2024 12:59pm)

Thanks for that it would make sense to me seeing that Ukraine is Europe's "bread basket" that Russia would want to take advantage of the natural resources there and the trade corridor. If Russia was able to cut off Ukraine access to the Black Sea seems like it would have big geopolitical ramifications no?

Quote (babun1024 @ 24 Jan 2024 12:09)

Yes and yes, US wants to control black sea at all costs. They support Ukraine under the condition that they have to retake Crimea no matter what. Crimea itself has got little to no meaning for Ukraine. US interests in the region are vast resources and making Russian troops land locked.

Quote (zorzin @ 24 Jan 2024 12:24)

Imo russias ultimate goal is complete and unfettered access to the black sea. The problem with this goal, as seen by recent attacks into Sevastopol, is that in order to secure a black sea port, Russia has to push back all Ukrainian assets to outside the effective range of western missles. This means that Russia has to take the coast and everything west of Odessa too.

If Russia is able to achieve this, than taking the rest of the country seems plausible because honestly at this point why not.

Ukraine has some new toys coming In and they could be a difference maker but as others have pointed out, what they need most is young healthy men and competent leadership.

Quote (SwamiVivekananda @ Jan 24 2024 06:40pm)

Ok so does that mean since the war has started that Russia has predominantly moved their military in that south east portion of Ukraine? Or has it been just a slow crawl across the entire boarder of the two countries.

If Russia was able to take the eastern half of Ukraine it would completely cut it off from the Black Sea. Was ignorant of that so I could see why Kyiv and Odesa are huge cities for both sides.

edit: I was trying to find accurate maps of what Russia has supposedly "taken" from Ukraine since the war started but hard to find accurate source.

Quote (SwamiVivekananda @ Jan 24 2024 07:40pm)

Ok so does that mean since the war has started that Russia has predominantly moved their military in that south east portion of Ukraine? Or has it been just a slow crawl across the entire boarder of the two countries.

If Russia was able to take the eastern half of Ukraine it would completely cut it off from the Black Sea. Was ignorant of that so I could see why Kyiv and Odesa are huge cities for both sides.

edit: I was trying to find accurate maps of what Russia has supposedly "taken" from Ukraine since the war started but hard to find accurate source.

Quote (ferdia @ 24 Jan 2024 12:51)

Based on what Russia has done to date, it looks like Russia wants to keep Crimea at all costs, it wants a land bridge to Crimea (i.e. land captured to date) and does not, currently, have aspirations to invade western ukraine, or replace the ukrainian government. It does appear to insist on Ukraine (western) not being in Nato. As commented previously, dependent on the trajectory of the war, Russia's goals may change. i.e. they may push on Kyiv if they feel they have to remove the Ukrainian government. That is unlikely to occur this year and already the narrative is talking about 2025.

Quote (babun1024 @ 24 Jan 2024 13:06)

Russia will try to subdue all of Ukraine. No negotiations are going to yield anything. They'll stop only if they can't progress anymore.

Quote (SwamiVivekananda @ Jan 24 2024 08:29pm)

So Ukraine is basically already a part of NATO because it's being given arms from members of NATO(correct me if I'm wrong) and it's only a matter of time before Russia basically takes Ukraine by force because countries like the US shouldn't be involved there and it's Russia teaching the world a lesson that they are a top super power and just as willing to sacrifice lives for their cause.

I'm not sure how the average Russian views Putin as to how most Americans view Biden but it just seems like Russia is projecting it's power to gain resources the same way the United States did it in the Middle East.

So the Ukrainian people themselves are cannon fodder because they would otherwise have no internal conflict with Russia?

edit: Wasn't this region at the heart of both World Wars? I thought that's where the original "land dispute" begins in the first place. In Putin's speech after declaring the war he made it seem like Ukraine and Russia were "brothers enthnically" but that were torn apart because of communism/western expansion etc.