I'd say that the majority of the Ukrainian people chose the pro-Russian side and rejected the EU, so yeah they must know something. It was a minority pro-western movement that overthrew the government after the Russia-aligned president who was formerly the Russia-aligned governor of the most populous, and Russia-aligned oblast, aligned himself with Russia instead of the EU. And that caused a civil war where that half the country willingly joined with Russia.



The vast majority of western Ukraine hasn't been shelled frequently and even major population centers in central Ukraine like Odessa and Kyiv have been 'mostly' unscathed, certainly not reduced to rubble like Mariupol was. And yet while the US and EU supply weapons and military advisors to Ukraine, Russia has been sending engineers and contractors to rebuild cities like Mariupol. That entire western half of Ukraine you say looks bad on a map, still looks like Dilbert's Elbonia. Russia built the largest bridge in Europe, the EU debated whether to put tariffs on their wartime ally to protect their domestic grain industry. Russia gave citizenship to people in the annexed territories. Brussels hosted the exiled self-titled mayor of Mariupol to chair a conference where he made grandiose plans for reconstruction of a city Russia now holds, like he's some disgraced prince-in-exile petitioning a foreign court in the middle ages. Zelensky makes big speeches about how Russia is 'stealing their harvest' as he lays claim to the resources of oblasts that voted to join Russia. The US and EU's biggest pitch for funding Ukraine post-war has been to steal Russian assets, rather than invest their own. If their whole country is to be funded by international piracy, their best case scenario is Somalia 2.0. Too bad Russia still holds the black sea. Maybe they'll actually steal an equal amount of western Ukraine's harvest trying to leave the Odessa port.

When we look at the history of every proxy war fought on America's behalf by our allies, be they afghans or iraqis or jesus christ, the kurds (!), and then we look at the reality today of rapidly withering support from the west- more economic risk than military- does this all add up to a rosy picture?
This same point in the Afghan and Iraq wars we were sending USACE overseas on hazard pay to build roads and bridges and dams for them, our main military expense wasn't bombs or IED shielding for humvees, it was contractors and construction. And even with that leg up, they collapsed and all that money was wasted. What makes Ukraine more fertile soil for reconstruction? Because it sure ain't the infertile soil in the west, just a bunch of people waist deep in mud and wearing funny hats


Its the same thing we've been talking about, eastern ukraine is richer in resources and more populous, Russia already holds the lion's share, and Kharkiv is still on the front lines. I've said a few times Odessa has been our biggest gain in this war, but there's also a dubious prospect of how valuable it will remain when so much of its importance as a black sea port came from transit of resources out of eastern ukraine and through the black sea. Its not like NATO didn't have black sea ports already. And its also a bit of a question whether in the coming year western Ukraine will even be able to hold onto the farmlands around Kharkiv and Donetsk. Any cracks form and the most critical farmlands still held by the west are right past the unharvestable front lines right now.

How much of western ukraine sums up to a net negative for the EU welfare state that already struggles with migrants draining their resources?

This post was edited by Goomshill on Jan 14 2024 07:16am

Laying out the facts from you : Russia is losing against the second poorest country in Europe.

Reality: Ukraine was pumped with western weapons and is fully reliant on outside help to the tune of hundreds of billions per year, which is the only reason this war actually goes on.

NATO has a huge problem of actual willingness to engage with their own soldiers vs a non cave dwelling enemies. That’s why it’s advantageous to have these peripheral nations go die for our causes, hence why the west has no interest in brokering peace and insists on Ukrainian maximal asks.

the real prize for the west are the huge, fertile farmlands that ukraine is still holding

the local GDP is almost irrelevant

We've been over this, your inability to accept you were wrong is baffling.

HAHAHA

Hi pot, meet kettle.

Great argument.

Not an argument, but a fact.

From an economical standpoint, Boeing fucked up again with their 747 max 8 & 9, so the war has to continue longer in order for Boeing to slow down the drop of their stock prices (Boeing and Lockheed are intervened in arms production).

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/international-group-to-withdraw-russian-troops-1705262743.html

Western Ukraine's defense minister made a bold pitch at the 'Peace Formula' summit in Davos, to establish a 'working group' for the 'withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine.' So they can 'jointly work out a mechanism'
Naturally they are laying claim to the eastern oblasts that have joined Russia, so their peace formula expects Russians to lay down their arms and withdraw from their territories unilaterally and with no means to force them to do so.
Truly goes along great with the Mariupol Reborn initiative
Meanwhile Russia launched another large barrage of missiles at targets across Ukraine, knocking out more heat and energy infrastructure