We've been over this before. You bowed out when I pointed out those areas are basically devoid of working age males, which is the demographic most needed for Russia to have any chance of solving their demographic issue.

There is no world where this war was at all good for the demographics issue.

I go to a church that has seen, I kid you not, dozens of young Ukrainian families come. Vast majority of them are never going back. There's no point. These people will flourish, grow rich and give their kids a future here in the US, there's no incentive to ever go back to Ukraine. My cousin that lives in Germany is married to a Ukrainian woman. Her mother (and eventually her boyfriend) got refugee status and are living in Germany. None of them have any interest of ever going back to live there permanently again. The longer this war goes on the small the probability many of these people will ever want to go back.



Bowed out, huh?

If your point is that Russia's demographics are worst versus prior to the war, i can agree, but no, they are no where near the collapse you often claim it to be, it's not even close.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jan 10 2024 08:46pm

Well, those who find good jobs or marry while living abroad are less likely to go back. That's not necessarily the norm though. Here in Germany, only some 22% of adult Ukrainian refugees are working to begin with (which is a political issue in itself...)
Also note that it might ultimately not come down to whether these people want to go back, many countries will simply kick out those of them who didn't become net taxpayers once the war is over... or at least end any benefits.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 10 2024 08:47pm

Good luck with that. It's a failing strategy because the number of deported is typically a relatively small percentage of those that actually come. We have the same issue in the US. I mean look at the amount of people from ME & Africa in western Europe. Many of these governments would like to get a lot of these people to go back, but it's never happening.

What does "collapse" mean? Their manufacturing is in shambles already. It's hard to collapse worse. I'd say my position is more that they're royally fucked in the long term with no real hope until time and economic realities corrects their population pyramid.

It's really not, they are in war production, churning out more war gear than the collective west is willing to match in Ukraine. They aren't royally fucked, they lost 30 million people in WW2 with large swaths of the country completely destroyed, and recovered within a generation, what exactly is so much more severe today that will royally fuck them in the long term?

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jan 10 2024 09:44pm

It's never actually been tried because the political support hasn't been there in recent years and a critical mass of political decision-makers openly or secretly wanted mass immigration. But you can feel the tide shifting around the world. Let's wait and see how this year's elections go.

Another main obstacle normally is that people have thrown away their passports, or that their countries of origin refuse to take them back. In the case of Ukraine, that's not gonna be an issue since post-war Ukraine will continue to be fully dependent on the EU for funding and its rebuild, so they simply won't have any other choice than to take back their countrymen if we no longer want them.

Back during the 1940s, Russia still had rapid population growth, birth rates were significantly above 2.1 children per women. And the country actually never truly recovered from the demographic bleeding it suffered during WW2.

Without the death toll from the war and considering the growth rates at the time, chances are that the USSR's population would have been some 100-150 million higher in 1989. Since Russia has always been an underpopulated country, and since the countries of the Warsaw Pact still had a dangerous numerical advantage* over those of NATO during the 50s and 60s, this additional manpower could have changed the course of the entire Cold War.



*keep in mind that the USSR's population in 1962, during the Cuba crisis, stood north of 220m while the US population was at only 184m. This is also not a contradiction to them being underpopulated since the Soviet Union/the Warsaw Pact were that fucking huge by surface area.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 10 2024 09:57pm

Russia wasn't industrialized to the degree other countries were so they weren't fully utilizing their entire work force the way they are today. This meant as they continued industrial expansion they had plenty of workers. There is no industrial expansion today and even if there was they have no workers for it.

They also had a much healthier population pyramid with a fertility rate near 3 and an average age of 25. Right now the average age is over 40 and the fertility rate is less than 2. The older people are less productive and quickly become a drain on the system as they retire, which will more than offset the new births productivity.



Russia's demographics after WW2 were a lot more favorable than I thought they were. The only real issue was excess women over men, but the average age and fertility rate were much better than I expected when I looked at the specific numbers.

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Jan 10 2024 10:09pm

The Ukraine war is worse than ww2 for Russia because Peter Zeihan.