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Jan 6 2024 11:43am
Quote (Malopox @ Jan 6 2024 05:38am)
First of all, let’s start out with a disclaimer, you changed your name to sound like a generic Twitter bot. Why lol. https://i.imgur.com/HshP5r2.jpg


This was my original name on this forum that I used for like 10+ years. I changed it a few years ago as a joke and just changed it back since the joke got old.
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Jan 6 2024 11:56am
Quote (ferdia @ Jan 6 2024 05:33pm)
India is to my mind perceived as a future threat to the US, which is why the US (by US I mean successive US Governments) continues (for decades) to finance Pakistan (the terrorist state on India's doorstep) and rig elections there. The segment relating to not peer competitor re: Russia, I completely agree with. It would have been very logical to cosy up to Russia but well, here we are.


India is not a future threat to the US in any shape or form.
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Jan 6 2024 12:11pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ Jan 6 2024 12:30pm)
That number is the price to produce and doesn't include any other steps like transport, which I was explicitly including in my number. You can see because I said "even after drilling and transporting cost".

But sure, I didn't read even though you just missed something that simple.


Russia has significantly more cost to produce and transport after the sanctions and exit of western companies. They are also trading at a discount to the actual oil price. The best case is that Russia is around break even right now, but that's assuming increased costs aren't too bad. There's definitely added cost to transport. It's a messy situation but you have to squint extremely hard to rationalize Russia making any kind of significant profit in the current environment.

https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/the-russian-oil-price-cap-can-work-again


Doubling down on the stupid even after people explained it to you.


Oil prices only recently (in the last few years) broke through and started trading above the ~60 dollar range, before that since 2015 ish they were below, even as low as 40s. Producers may cut back production and operate at a small loss for a little while not many years. Transport/insurance add costs but that's around 10-20/barrel at most knows better and he can opine, that wouldn't take the price of per barrel from 20 to 80 or 100.

Point is, they are in green, and have been in the green.
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Jan 6 2024 12:37pm
Quote (ferdia @ 7 Jan 2024 01:33)
India is to my mind perceived as a future threat to the US, which is why the US (by US I mean successive US Governments) continues (for decades) to finance Pakistan (the terrorist state on India's doorstep) and rig elections there. The segment relating to not peer competitor re: Russia, I completely agree with. It would have been very logical to cosy up to Russia but well, here we are.


That is true in regards to India, as a matter of fact if you look at certain meme sites, reddit , the Anti India Rhetoric started since 2014 - 2015. But at a slower pace but still significant as compared to China. It will take around 15 to 20 years to gear people up and used when necessary.
They didn't go full on and bash India because currently they need India as part of the Containment strategy, but it is ruffling a lot of feathers because India still stand by Russia.
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Jan 6 2024 01:12pm
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Jan 6 2024 06:37pm)
That is true in regards to India, as a matter of fact if you look at certain meme sites, reddit , the Anti India Rhetoric started since 2014 - 2015. But at a slower pace but still significant as compared to China. It will take around 15 to 20 years to gear people up and used when necessary.
They didn't go full on and bash India because currently they need India as part of the Containment strategy, but it is ruffling a lot of feathers because India still stand by Russia.


Til certain meme sites define foreign policy

What utter drivel.
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Jan 6 2024 01:22pm
Quote (do_NaUKI @ 6 Jan 2024 10:28)
tell me one reason why would Putin quit it? He is winning and will win that war. You think Connor Mcgregor should stop hitting in middle of fight "ohh i could stop hurting my opponent and just stop fight and lose fight and go home and make me look like idiot" :rofl:

I didn't go through the reasons for or against Putin ending the war. What I argued against was your claim that only Ukraine can end this war when it is obvious that Putin could also end it any day if he wanted to.

This stupid talking point that only the Ukrainian leadership is to blame for the suffering of their country because they "foolishly" keep fighting a "hopeless war" puts all the responsibility on the attacked country and absolves the actual attackers of their (much much greater) responsibility. It's like telling a battered rape victim: "Why didn't you just lie still and let it happen? Because you fought back, he had no other choice than to bash your face in."



---------


Regarding oil prices: it should be fairly obvious that Russia is fine with an oil price in the $80/barrel range, but it's hard to gauge how much of their ballooned wartime budget they can cover at this prices. They could definitely cover their pre-war budget at this rate, but their expenses have undoubtedly skyrocketed due to the war.

But even if they are currently running a deficit, it's not so huge that they would run out of financial steam within 1-2 years. Realistically, nobody should bet on Russia running out of money as the reason that ultimately ends this war. The long-term ramifications will imho be severe for Russia, but it's not gonna end the war in the short term.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 6 2024 01:24pm
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Jan 6 2024 01:34pm
Quote (ferdia @ 6 Jan 2024 18:33)
It would have been very logical to cosy up to Russia but well, here we are.

That's what Europe did for decades. Didn't stop Russia from bombing Chechnya into the ground in 99/00, from messing with the Ukrainian elections in 2004, invading Georgia in 2007, messing with Ukrainian politics in 2013, and so on and forth. And that doesn't even include the instances in which Russia threatened Ukraine and the Baltics from the 90s through the 2010s and/or closed the gas tap at the height of winter to blackmail them.



Quote (Hamsterbaby @ 6 Jan 2024 15:44)
The simplest thing would be doing a Kissinger. Russia is a Nuclear Superpower but Russia is not a threat to the United States because it is no longer a peer competitor.

Should have made nice with Russia and ask them to lock up Central Asia to stymied China's Belt and Road land route.

Get Russia to influence India and give India more control and stake in the Indian Ocean ( Diego Garcia ) is there as well. Continue with the TPP with strategic partnership with Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia , Japan , South Korea, Philippines etc etc to control the Straits of Malacca.
If the above worked out, the Chinese would have wanted to join the TPP but under USA led rules and regulations....less problems in South China Seas and less problem with Taiwan Straits locking up China's Belt and Road Sea Route.

But alas...... :lol:

China would never have accepted an economic order led by US rules and regulations.

Quote (Hamsterbaby @ 6 Jan 2024 19:37)
That is true in regards to India, as a matter of fact if you look at certain meme sites, reddit , the Anti India Rhetoric started since 2014 - 2015. But at a slower pace but still significant as compared to China. It will take around 15 to 20 years to gear people up and used when necessary.
They didn't go full on and bash India because currently they need India as part of the Containment strategy, but it is ruffling a lot of feathers because India still stand by Russia.

I wouldn't go as far as calling India a geostrategic ally of the Russians. They are economic partners and India has a dependence on Russian military tech which traces back half a century. India wasn't able to immediately cut all ties with Russia, nor would it have been in India's self-interest. Doesn't mean that they act like an actual ally, they're not vetoing UN resolutions against Russia or sending them shells and drones like Iran and China do.

In reality, I believe that India has become a geopolitical power in its own right; they are neither fully aligned with the West, Russia nor China.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 6 2024 01:37pm
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Jan 6 2024 02:40pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 6 2024 02:22pm)

This stupid talking point that only the Ukrainian leadership is to blame for the suffering of their country because they "foolishly" keep fighting a "hopeless war" puts all the responsibility on the attacked country and absolves the actual attackers of their (much much greater) responsibility. .


I would agree with this point (obviously overlooking the west pushing for this war in the first place) if it was like year 1 into this special military operation, where the money was flowing and people still cared.

Now however, people with your line of reasoning will destroy what's left of Ukraine and the leadership gets to fuck off to Miami.

There is absolutely no way Ukraine wins this war without the gibs and the gibs just dried up
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Jan 6 2024 02:57pm
Quote (do_NaUKI @ Jan 6 2024 07:30am)
You should check facts first, Russia has a democracy btw. Putin is not dictator, he is choosed to be their president by votes just like zelensky got voted in Ukraine.
Russia will not lose that war, no any chance. Ukraine woulda been dead already if rest of Europe + usa didint throw funds and ammos there. Sure some russians will die in that war, probably even more than ukraine soldiers, but it doesnt matter when Ukraine have 1 million soldiers vs Russia have 50 million soldiers, they can afford that men loss, Ukraine cannot.
And dont understand me wrong bro, i dont like any war and i hope this war ends as fast as possible. Lets pray that Zelensky surrender quick and save peoples lives.



100% true


Lol. A vote. Got it.
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Jan 6 2024 02:58pm
Quote (zorzin @ Jan 6 2024 07:34am)
And that's why the majority of Ukrainians no longer have a home. The west has given up on Ukraine its time to admit you were wrong and tell the Ukrainians that they have died for nothing.


Russia targets civilian structures, and you think that means they are winning. Lol
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