Quote (El1te @ Dec 20 2023 02:15am)
In the modern day, it seems that wars have devolved into both sides accusing the other of genocide, such that their defeat is a moral imperative. (also Israel vs. Hamas)
Pretty silly if you ask me, given that in 2023 we *should* be smarter than that. Honour in warfare is very much dead.
Regardless, conflicts in the 21st century don't offer solutions; instead, they merely defer problems to be addressed in the future. What is Russia's ultimate objective here? It has sacrificed its economy for the long term and eroded its already diminished international reputation. Even if, hypothetically, Russia managed to conquer a significant portion of Ukraine, what would come next? Is there an anticipation that such an outcome would lead to prosperity for the Russian state? Do they envision a scenario where everything returns to normal as if nothing significant occurred, with red carpets unfurled for Putin in European capitals?
Russia would still need to invest hundreds of billions to reconstruct Eastern Ukraine and establish natural resource extraction facilities to recover some of its expenses. This is a task Russia has struggled with on its own territory, especially given that most of its specialists in oil and natural resource extraction are over 45 years old. Approximately 2-2.5 million affluent Russian specialists have departed from Russia, being replaced by 2-3 million impoverished refugees from Ukraine, predominantly consisting of women and children making matters even worse for Russia long term. The brain drain is real and its the hardest resource to replace in modern world, so on this front Russia already lost.
Then there's the aspect of war returning home, as it inevitably does. Hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers, some with significant criminal histories, returning from their positions in the Eastern Ukraine. Does anyone believe these individuals will smoothly integrate into civilian life, particularly in Russia where economic opportunities are so limited that these same individuals were willing to endure trenches and dodge bullets for a monthly wage of $1,500? Reports of abductions, killings, child molestation, assaults, accidental explosions are already emerging from Russia. So far, only those who are physically incapable of continuing their service have returned, representing only a tiny fraction of what is expected to come back.
In what way is any of this a triumph for Russia and its citizens precisely? Putin is aware that his time is limited, and he won't have to endure the consequences as long as he doesn't lose power. His family and associates have secured luxurious retreats far away for themselves when the situation worsens. It is the typical Russian individual, misled and uninformed about how the world and the economy function, who will bear the consequences of Putin's attempt to emulate Peter the Great and show NATO its place by invading non-NATO Ukraine.