Quote (AleKsRoBerto @ 17 Dec 2023 10:23)
Actually dude… you’re just delusional. No one cares where you’re from or about your fg. Russia is losing so bad that china is going to be taking a fair chunk of Siberia away from them in a relatively short time here.
A lot of edgelords on this subforum can’t argue on merits so go
ad hominem as they reach their intellectual limits - hence constant racism, bottom barrel memes, accusations of being a second tier citizen and so on.
Russia seems to have weathered initial sanctions storm quite well and stabilized its economy. Short term - unless Putin dies and there is a political turmoil crisis - none of the serious western analytics or Russian opposition (eg Guriev, Chichvarkin) see decline as Russian economy is set to grow and Russia is able to produce enough weapons to keep itself in this game. Domestic dissent has been dealt with and the only opposition is systemic (eg Central Bank vs Ministry of Finance or various political elites like eg business vs military folks).
Long term it remains to be seen how Russia will adapt to sectoral sanctions as some of the industries like eg airplanes require global supply chains which have been disrupted. Russia claims to be able to produce SSJ100 and Il76 civilian planes, but production of those needs to be scaled significantly if they want to replace all the aging Boeings and Airbuses in the next decade.
Big elephant in the room in my opinion is how will the G7 justify theft of currently “frozen” investments / foreign reserves of Russian citizens, Russian companies and Russian government as this will send unambiguous signal to China/India/Arabs - what will happen to them if they don’t fall in line.
I have recently read an article by Kishore Mahbubani (https://archive.is/2023.12.12-151251/https://www.ft.com/content/ed18d1a2-59b9-42e2-a4e1-b26d6f0e5e9e) who has spent decades at the top of international politics in the UN and as representative of Singapore. It is curious to observe how far will US let this multipolarity narrative play out. Perhaps we should make a thread about this in itself as it seems to go in opposition of current doctrine of
pax americana.