Quote (Malopox @ 11 Dec 2023 17:17)
That's a good one. The talk about "if we don't stop Russia in Ukraine, they will attack NATO members next" is fear mongering if you ask me. Their military will be worn down after the war in Ukraine, and NATO is much more alert now, has deployed additional rapid response battalions to the Baltics etc.
There is some logic to this sentiment though: to invade a country as big as Ukraine requires hundreds of thousands of troops and days, probably weeks, of fighting even in the best of circumstances. If Ukraine was a member of NATO, it would be outright impossible for NATO to ignore such an attack on one of their own without losing any and all credibility. So even if an isolationist was in the White House and pro-Russia folks were dominant in Congress, the US would have no other choice than to react - or its status as a global superpower would evaporate instantly.
The Baltics, on the other hand, are tiny and geographically isolated. Russia could probably take them in one or two days if NATO gets caught with its pants down. By the time NATO would have to show some reaction, they could already be confronted with a fait accompli on the ground. In such a scenario, it's not as clear whether NATO - and the US in particular - would really muster the strength and will to declare war on Russia to retaliate. So while I disagree, the notion that NATO membership would protect Ukraine while the Baltics would remain vulnerable has at least some logic to it.